FAA AWRP Icing

Tasks and POP Our FY2013 is Jan’13 through Mar’14 (15 mo) Tasks: 1.MICRO 2.IPA 3.CIP/FIP-HiRes 4.Dual-pol NEXRAD

MICRO Accomplishments so far First case study proving to be useful for many, many applications “pseudo climatology” Testing data inputs Testing accretion codes for cloud and large drop icing aloft and at the surface (yes, we know…) Completed draft development plan Gathering data for additional case studies – in collaboration with our Xcel Energy and AWRT work Corrected satellite icing product (part of MICRO input) Completed metar_mapper upgrades (needed for high- resolution MICRO) Completed draft ConOps (discussion tomorrow)

Plans (thru 3/31/14) Get a near-real-time version running at NCAR Output available internally for “eyeball time” Complete 2-4 additional case studies These are still needed to assess which data and model inputs produce greatest improvements in icing diagnosis Determine priority data ingest upgrades and commence work on those Actually, progress is a mix of priorities, bang-for- the-buck and opportunities Many problems with staff allocations among all our icing projects MICRO

Issues Need to determine (with input from ISG and others) what outputs are needed and desired Primary Appendix C/O conditions? Exceedance of those conditions? And probability of above? “Standard” accretion rate? Secondary Liquid water content? Drop size metric? Additional severity information? We need in situ data in the 2-3 year time frame (Wednesday’s discussion) MICRO

IPA

FY13 Accomplishments Delivered 40-km CIP-HiRes output and bug fixes to AWC in April Developed upgrade list and schedule and are working to that Quality Assessment PDT verified winter 2013 data set and compared with operational CIP/FIP Technical Review Panel 15 November Monitor CIP/FIP-HiRes

Plans (thru 3/31/14) Release upgraded version end of November Internal release only (V1.1) Work on high-priority upgrades for April release (V1.2) Issues Need migration plan for CIP/FIP -> MICRO Do we? Monitor CIP/FIP-HiRes

Dual-pol NEXRAD

FY13 Accomplishments Codebase refactored to split off 'dual-pol' and 'single-pol' streams, extensively tested, delivered code description document ~20 cases vetted and most input data collected ~5 cases processed through new code with initial analysis Wiki page shows details of the cases and summarizes results Plans (thru 3/31/14) Incorporate input into CIP cases to assess improvements Dual-Pol NEXRAD

Misc. Just submitted six abstracts to the AIAA 2014 Aviation and Astronautics Forum Are working closely with NSSL on MRMS Aviation Hazard product (AWRP work) Are working not-so-closely with MIT-LL on IHL deployment Work Mark M’s airborne sensor work into MICRO? How can we get icing (and other small-end GA concerns) back in the forefront of public discussions (such as FPAW)?

FY2014 Proposal Our FY2014 is Apr’14 – Mar’15 Tasks: 1.MICRO 2.IPA 3.Outreach 4.CIP/FIP-HiRes 5.Dual-Pol NEXRAD 6.Global CIP

MICRO Improve Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWP) by developing means to estimate icing-related parameters, construct a baseline clear sky satellite mask and research statistical bias correction methods Develop a better algorithm structure that is data-driven, flexible and agile Develop a means, coordinating with the Quality Assessment Product Development Team (QAPDT) and Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation (AWDE) services, to evaluate upgrades and link to quality assessment evaluation tools Prepare an experimental version of the MICRO algorithm for the Aviation Weather Test-bed (AWT) to be displayed winter Output will be made available to the QAPDT for evaluation. The algorithm will be run either at NCAR or AWC, depending on resources Coordinate with AWDE services to determine what type of evaluation would be needed from AWC forecasters Ensure coordination of MICRO research with TAIWIS and HIWC efforts.

IPA Continue development of IPA Diagnosis and Forecast product and have experimental version ready for testing at the AWT or Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU), and in-house at NCAR for the winter of Recommend the final operational platform for the product (AWC and/or AAWU), the pathway to operations, and coordinate integration with AAWU operations Working with QAPDT, plan and support QA assessment of IPA Forecast product Consider Human Factors Assessment to determine optimum way to display IPA product Ensure coordination of IPA research with TAIWIS and MICRO efforts If 2013 research proves successful, begin incorporation of high resolution modeling (HRRR-AK) and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) data into product (Depending on funding availability could be Lower Priority than 1-5)

Outreach Determine who the users are, what their needs are, and what additional icing applications could benefit from inclusion in MICRO and IPA development (e.g. TAIWIS, wind energy, other structural icing, etc) Study viability of conducting an In-flight Icing User’s Technical Interchange Meeting to include Internal and External NAS Users to assess needs of icing community Conduct In-flight Icing User’s Technical Interchange Meeting Collate input from meeting and determine which ideas and concepts are feasible for future product development Incorporate input into products as appropriate

Outreach E1Jun’14 Establish time and location for In- flight Icing User’s Technical Interchange Meeting E2by Sep’14 In-flight Icing User’s Technical Interchange Meeting (if determined feasible) E3by Sep’14 Informal gathering of user information (if meeting is determined not feasible) E4Mar’14 Progress report

CIP/FIP-HiRes Resolve any further software problems uncovered in AWC testing Upgrade software as needed to run under changing operating systems or add new data sets Identify components of other on-going icing research that will improve CIP/FIP HiRes and determine how to migrate those components to CIP/FIP HiRes.

Dual-Pol NEXRAD Work with AWRT PDT to define requirements and integrate Dual-Pol icing data into MRMS Evaluate if Dual-pol icing data will improve CIP/FIP and integrate dual-pol icing data into CIP/FIP HiRes Begin to utilize Dual-Pol data into MICRO development Ensure coordination of Dual-Pol research with TAIWIS and HIWC efforts Add features from Dual-Pol icing research into original IHL algorithm. (Depending on funding availability, considered Lower Priority than 1-4) Implement any further fixes to problems discovered in AWC testing

Global CIP Collaborate with AWC and UK Met Office on what R&D is needed for Global Icing Diagnosis Product Plan for GCIS development including critical areas, available data sets determination of NWP models, other icing diagnostics, and verification methods Develop preliminary offline example Global Icing Diagnostic for a limited, selected region

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