Solid State Lighting July 1, 2008

Overview Basics Review Potential SSL Measures & Applications Scale of Conservation Potential Initial Cost-Effectiveness Forecast of Technological Progress

SSL Characteristics Solid state –Potential for Long Life, up to 75K hours –Few catastrophic failures – They just fade away –Heat dissipation issues are most challenging Favorable dimming & control characteristics –DC devices, no warm-up issues, tunable optics Directional light output Low infra-red spectral components

How Long?

Analytic Considerations Compare luminaire efficacy AND output –Efficacy of: Lamp + Driver (ballast) + Fixture + Optics –Lumen output, beam shape & color Design of the entire luminaire is key Potential lamp replacement & labor savings (Long Life) Dubious manufacturer & vendor claims Performance metrics & test procedures –LM-79 is just two months old

Emerging SSL Products & Applications Outdoor Lighting –Street & Roadway –Walkway –Parking –Façade & Signage Refrigeration Display Case Recessed Can Downlight MR16 Replacements Desk Lamp / Task Lighting Undercabinet

Sources DOE Caliper Program –Our own PNL providing lots of horse power Selected Demonstrations

Outdoor Lighting Street & Roadway, Walkway, Parking Promising near-term potential (10% - 40%) –Efficacy as good or better than HPS & Metal Halide –Lots of room for improvement over existing stock More useful light, less glare, better color rendering, better contrast ratios, fewer night sky issues, dimming control –Half or more of the energy savings are from these factors as opposed to source efficacy –Half or more of $ value from longer life

Directional Point Sources Tunable Optics

Street & Roadway Cost-Effectiveness Potentially cost-effective in new (lost-opportunity) TRC Net Levelized Cost –Range 20 – 200 mills / kWh –TRC B/C ratios 0.5 to 1.1 Uncertainties –First Cost: $5-10/watt or $1-3/million-lumen-hours –Life: 50K to 75K+ hours (cool ambient conditions) –Maintenance Cost Savings: $10-30/head/year streetlights 1 to 2 times the PV of energy saved

Street & Roadway Savings Potential Roadway Use: 1% of total loads (Navigant 2002) For PNW that’s 200 MWa total roadway load Save 30-40% of that or MWa How long will it take? This cobra head HPS fixture was installed in It’s still out there.

Walkway, Parking, Facade Similar application efficacy gains (10-40%) Somewhat lower maintenance savings –Don’t need the truck as much Higher potential dimming & occupancy control –Acceptance issues Size in MWa –Don’t know yet –But pretty big and growing

Signage Good Application –Color, control, longevity, low maintenance PNW Potential based on Navigant 2003 –30-40 MWa in 2002 –Growing end use

Refrigerated Display Case Cool ambient application, long life, saves refrigeration Replaces T-12 & T-8 fluorescent TRC Net Levelized Cost: 30 to 100 mills/kWh Now with occupancy sensors – more savings Not big MWa

Downlights

Interior Downlights Higher ambient T - shorter life - 35K hours Efficacy similar to CFL Cost higher than CFL Niches where new potential: –Where dimming & occupancy & color are valuable –Hard-to-reach & high change labor

Check out the MR16 Replacements Benchmark: 20W MR 16, halogen, 40° – lumens –9-19 lumens/watt –CBCP 500

Dubious Claims

Desk Lamp & Task Light

Undercabinet

Power Factors All Over the Place

Rate of Improvement 35% per year improvement in efficacy 20% per year cost reduction

Emerging SSL Products & Applications Outdoor Lighting –Street & Roadway –Walkway –Parking –Façade & Signage Refrigeration Display Case Recessed Can Downlight MR16 Replacements Desk Lamp / Task Lighting Undercabinet Good Applications Promising Economics New Potential MWa Not there yet High-Cost CFL Some Niche Applications