Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 May 2011 For Real-time information:

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Jon Gottschalck NOAA / NWS / Climate Prediction Center

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Presentation transcript:

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 May 2011 For Real-time information:

Outline ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast

ENSO Current Status For more information go to: During the last 4-weeks (24 Apr – 21 May 2011), equatorial SSTs were 0.5°C below average near the International Date Line, while near-average to above-average temperatures have emerged in the eastern Pacific. General Summary: A transition from La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is underway across the equatorial Pacific. Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies persist across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while SSTs are now above-average in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with La Niña remain significant. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to develop during May- June 2011 and continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011.

MJO Current Status  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: The MJO signal weakened considerably during the previous week. The MJO signal is expected to remain week during the upcoming two weeks.

Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South AmericaSouthern AfricaAustralia For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Southern Hemisphere Circulation 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. C C

Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than- average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

Australia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 1-7

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 8-14

Southern Africa Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 1-7

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 8-14

Brazil & Argentina Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Argentina Brazil Anomaly

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) - Brazil Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean

Extreme Minimum Anomaly Extreme MaximumMean Temperature (°C) - Argentina Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 1-7

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 23 May 2011 – Days 8-14

USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month