James Samuel National Facilitator Transition Towns NZ Aotearoa Peak oil, climate change and transition towns

Agenda Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change (brief)‏ Responses at different levels –global, national, local, personal PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” What is a transition town Examples and achievements so far Q&A discussion

Peak Oil – fields, regions, world we’ll never “run out” of oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil oil underpins –industrial development –agriculture –economics –population about ½ way through it… it’s going to decline

Peak Oil – discovery Before you extract it, you have to find it

Peak Oil – official numbers EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration IEA - International Energy Agency

Peak Oil – what’s it like? Terminal decline Demand destruction Examples: –1990s: North Korea –1990s: Cuba –2000: UK fuel crisis –Now: Poor countries

Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor)‏ Asia –Nepal –Pakistan –Bangladesh –Sri Lanka –Philippines –China –India –Vietnam Africa –Uganda –Zimbabwe –Ghana –Nigeria –Senegal –Kenya –Gambia –Philippines Americas –Argentina –Nicaragua –Chile –Costa Rica –Dominican Republic Middle East –Iraq –Iran

Climate Change the end of the debate Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temp's since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temp's since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: Upsala Glacier, Argentina

Climate Change weather extremes

Fossil Fuels, Carbon, and Economic Growth

What can be done? Global –Oil Depletion Protocol –Contraction and Convergence –Kyoto National –TEQs (energy rationing)‏ Community –Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural Personal –“The work that reconnects” –Lessons from addiction counselling

Can we respond? Going up the energy slope, we used –ingenuity –creativity –adaptability –cooperation Going back down… –if we’re early enough –if we’re cooperative –the future could be a whole lot better…

What’s stopping us? Myths of today –Technology will solve all our problems –There is no alternative –Civilisation is the pinnacle of human achievement –Living standards are rising –New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner –Humans are selfish and greedy by nature –The market will solve it If our water comes from a tap, and our food comes from a supermarket –We will defend the systems which sustain us

Where are we going? Industrial Ascent - Energy & Resource Use- Energy & Resource Use - Population - Pollution- Pollution Peak Energy? Techno-Fantasy Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Post Mad Max Collapse Great Grand Children Agriculture yrs BP Industrial Revolution Baby Boom Pre-industrial culture Historical Time Future Time Creative Descent (Permaculture)‏

Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? 43 Towns at last count

How are they organising? Transition Model Understanding: PO + CC = The end of “business as usual” Adaptability, Creativity NOW 7 Buts 12 Steps Transition Network

Peak Oil & Climate Change Climate Change mitigations must: reduce emissions (reduce oil usage)‏ Peak Oil mitigations must: build local resilience Which means doing it closer to home - re-localisation consumption production work play

Our choice… We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future, whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather be engulfed by it.