“The Quiet Dilemma” SKILLS SHORTAGES, HIGHER EDUCATION & TODAY'S YOUTH Kenneth Gray Penn State University Indiana School Counselors Association Fall Conference

The Technical Work Force Professional 25% Blue-Collar Tech. Workers 56% Technicians 19% Other Ways to Win

A region that does not have a growing percentage of it non-professional workforce trained beyond high school level will have increasing difficulty in supporting the competitiveness of high- value business. Building a World-Class Technical Workforce, 1996 Other Ways to Win

The Quiet Dilemma University Graduation Rate = 52% University underemployment rate = 43% Baccalaureate Success rate = 1 in 4.

The Nation’s Quiet Dilemma Underemployment of University Graduates 43% of grads in high school jobs two yrs later 43% in jobs with no career potential 4 yrs later 69% of arts and science majors in jobs with no career potential 4 yrs later Source: B&B 1st & 2nd follow-up, NCES 93/97

Employment Outlook for University Graduates 2006 Supply Demand Commensurate Employment Bachelors1,268, ,300 57%

Recommending College in Sophomore Years for 1982 and 1992 High School Graduates Other Ways to Win Father Mother Guidance Teachers Counselor Total Test Quartile Lowest Second Source: HS &B base year student survey (1980) and NELS:88 first follow-up student survey (1990), National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education

Confusion Regarding the Importance of Job Skills

Sources of Labor Market Advantage High Skill/ High Wage Low Skill/ Low Wage Other Ways to Win

Effects of Skills on Productivity in Non Clerical-N TechnicalClerical Speed Compute Speed Math Reasoning ScienceVerbal Success in Training Productivity Other Ways to Win

Sources of Labor Market Advantage High Skill/ High Wage Low Skill/ Low Wage Other Ways to Win

Occupational Groups Ranked by Earnings Earnings Managerial/Professional 1 Craft, Precision Metal, Repair 2 Technical Support 3 Service 4 Operative, Laborer 5 Farming, Fishing 6 Source: Compiled from Eck, (1994) & Statistical Abstracts U.S

Occupational Groups Ranked by Earnings, Net Openings Earning Openings Managerial/Professional 1 Technical Support1 Craft, Precision Metal, Repair 2 Operative, Laborer 2 Technical Support 3 Craft, Precision Metal, Repair 3 Service 4 Operative, Laborer 5 Farming, Fishing 5 Farming, Fishing 6 Managerial/Professional 6 Source: Compiled from Eck, (1994) & Statistical Abstracts U.S

A New Goal  Stop counting the number of teens who go to college and start counting how many are successful.  Every student should graduate with a postsecondary plan that has a high probability of success.

Today Success Requires Academic Skills & Career Direction

Where High School Seniors Expect to be Employed Other Ways to Win Occupations All Seniors Males Females Professional Manager Craft/Precision manufacturing/ Specialized repair Technicians Source: U.S. Department of Education

All my life I’ve always wanted to be somebody, but I see now I should have been more specific. Wagner, 1986 Other Ways to Win

Old Advice that is Now Bad Advice Postpone career choices as long as possible You don’t want to close any doors. Don worry about career indecision you will decide that in college. ( The difference between acceptance into college and acceptance into a major).

Career Development Basics Not our role to tell teens and parents what they should or should not do. It is our role to help them make the best decision they can. Remember the difference between jobs and careers. Remember fastest growing occupations may not mean the greatest opportunity.

Student Outcomes Goals of Career Development Programs  Help teens make the best career decision they can based on what they know “now” about themselves and the world of work. If this is a good decision, the next decision will be even better.

Student Outcomes Goals of Career Development Programs  By the tenth grade all students will have participated in activities designed to help them identify several career options.  In the eleventh and twelfth grades all students will participate in activities that allow them to verify these choices, using the results to develop postsecondary plans.

Four Messages for Students and Parents 1. Focus on postsecondary success, not college admissions. 2. Take career exploration seriously—career direction predicts success..3. If one goal is economic security, then don’t confuse education with occupational skills. 4. Consider two-year postsecondary technical education and apprenticeship training that can lead to a four-year college degree. Other Ways to Win