E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems EU RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGE: Present and Future Anver Ghazi Head, Global Change Unit European Commission Brussels UNFCCC Workshop Bonn, 21 June 2004

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE From research on environmental protection to integration of sustainability into research FP3 & 4:Research on ecosystem functioning and climate; environment protection technologies (e.g. ozone research) FP5:Integration of the environmental dimension in research; more attention to climate, water,coastal integration and urban dynamics FP6:Sustainability to be integrated in all areas of research, especially Energy, Transport and Agriculture

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems FP5 ( ) CLIMATE RESEARCH Over 180 research projects funded in areas (budget: 250 Mill ECU): -Climate change prediction -Climate dynamics and abrupt changes -Interactions between ecosystems and carbon/nitrogen cycle -Atmospheric composition Change -Stratospheric ozone depletion -Mitigation and adaptation -European contribution to global observation systems -Natural hazards research Contribution to IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and IPCC

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems Some pertinent results of on-going FP5 projects  EPICA (European Project on Ice Coring in Antarctica): Ice coring reached a depth of 3100 m. Climate history record of past years  DEMETER (Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction): Capability demonstrated to predict seasonal/interannual climate variations - implications for energy, agriculture, tourism and health  CARBOEUROPE (Carbon Cycle in Europe): Carbon Absorption Capacity of Europe’s terrestrial biosphere reported to be about 7-12% of the annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems Some pertinent results of on-going FP5 projects  TRADEOFF (Aircraft Emissions: Contribution of Different Climate Components to Changes in Radiative Forcing): Aviation emission impacts on cirrus clouds three times larger than that from CO 2 emissions alone on climate  AICSEX (Arctic Ice Cover Simulation Experiment): The Arctic warming in and the subsequent cooling in are due to natural fluctuations in the climate system.  PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change Risks and Effects)

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems Global Emissions Control Strategies Project Objective  Develop global (world) scenarios in order to analyse the impacts of Post-Kyoto policies under flexibility mechanisms for emission reduction, including options to reduce emissions resulting from land use change and for strengthening carbon sinks.

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems PRUDENCE  observations

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems PRUDENCE  Regional Modelling

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems ECMWF operational Multi-Model

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems ECMWF operational Multi-Model

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems The 3 interrelated pillars of Priority 6 Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems l Sustainable energy systems (810MEuro): clean energy, energy savings, alternative motor fuels, fuel cells, energy carriers/transport/storage l Sustainable surface transport (610MEuro): environmentally friendly transport, interoperability, safety l Global change and ecosystems (700MEuro): greenhouse gas emissions, water cycle, biodiversity and ecosystems, natural disasters, land management, climate observation, complementary research

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems I.Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants on climate, ozone depletion and carbon sinks II.Water cycle, including soil-related aspects III.Biodiversity and ecosystems IV.Mechanisms of desertification and natural disasters V.Strategies for sustainable land management, including coastal zones, agricultural land and forests VI.Operational forecasting and modelling including global climatic change observation systems VII. Complementary research VIII.Cross-cutting issue: Sustainable Development concepts and tools

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems Work Programme on Area I Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric pollutants on climate, ozone depletion and carbon sinks Research priorities I.1Carbon and nitrogen cycles: sources and sinks I.2Atmospheric pollutants and their regional impacts I.3Climate dynamics and variability I.4Prediction of climate change and its impacts I.5Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions I.6Adaptation and mitigation strategies

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems 1st Call - New Instruments (NoE and IP) in Area I I.1Carbon and nitrogen cycles: sources and sinks; Assessment of the European carbon balance I.2Atmospheric pollutants and their regional impacts; Integration of European atmospheric composition research I.4Prediction of climatic change and its impacts; Integrated climate change scenarios I.5Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions; Ozone-climate links I.6Adaptation and mitigation strategies Adaptation and mitigation strategies

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems New FP6 Climate Research Projects  Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their impacts (ENSEMBLES) - IP  Stratosphere-Climate Links with emphasis on UTLS (SCOUT) - IP  Atmospheric Composition Change: A European Network (ACCENT) - NOE  Assessment of European Terrestrial Carbon Balance (CARBOEUROPE) - IP

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems 2nd Call - New Instruments (NoE and IP) in Indent I I.1Carbon and nitrogen cycles: sources and sinks; Assessment of marine carbon sources and sinks I.2Atmospheric pollutants and their regional impacts; Atmospheric pollutants and climate forcing I.3Climate dynamics and variability; Hot spots in the earth system Coupled climate system (STREPS) Novel palaeoreconstruction methods (STREPS) I.5Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions; Aviation and surface transport impacts

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems Work Programme on Area VI (2nd Call) Operational forecasting and modelling including global climatic change observation systems VI.1Development of observing and forecasting systems Earth system observations (Network of Excellence) Co-operative projects on climate observations (STREPs)

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems 2nd Call for Proposals – Selected IP  CARBOOCEAN: Marine Carbon Sources and Sinks Assessment  AMMA: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis  QUANTIFY: Quantifying the Climate Impact of Global and European Transport Systems

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems International Cooperation  US-EU Joint meeting on Climate Change Science and Technology Research, Washington D.C., February 5-6, 2003  EU-Russia Workshop on Polar Research, Brussels, June 2003  EU- Japan Symposium on Climate Research - Tokyo, 3-5 March Brussels, March 2003  EC Global Change Research: International Partnership (ESSP), Brussels, 6-7 May 2004

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems Earth Observation Summit: EU Contribution July 31, 2003, Washington D.C. Summit declaration: Coordinated Earth-Observation system or systems EO-Summit III, 4th Quarter 2004 in Europe to discuss 10-year Implementation Plan Reference to Jo’burg and Evian Summits Earth Observation Summit III, February 17, 2005, Brussels

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems Earth Observation Summit: EU Contribution July 31, 2003, Washington D.C. Ad hoc Group on Earth-Observation (GEO): Co-chair: Dr. A. Mitsos, Director-General, Research DG, EC GEO II meeting, November 2003, Baveno, Italy Participation in GEO- Sub groups and the GEO Secretariat Earth Observation Partnership Conference, 16 July, Brussels GEO V meeting, November 2004, Canada

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems AirSoilWater Land-UseHazards/Risks HabitatsSocio-Economic Nature &Biodiversity Urban Industrial Risks Soils Floods Fires Water Health Forests Topography Agro-environment Meteo and climate data Climate Change Air Noise Coastal Zones Monitoring GMES Global Monitoring of Environment and Security

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS Specific Support Actions SECOND CALL u Actions such as the European Network for Research and Global Change (ENRICH) u Actions for associated candidate countries u European contribution to climate related polar research (IPY) u Consolidation and impact assessment of results achieved in EU research projects relating to regional and urban sustainability aspects

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems 3rd Call for Proposals (16 June 2004) Climate research topics: 1.Nitrogen cycle and its interaction with C- cycle (IP) 2.Ocean-atmosphere-chemistry interaction (STREP) 3.Adaptation and mitigation strategies (IP) 4.The past climate and its dynamics (IP) 5.Climate observations/contribution to GEO

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems THIRD CALL FOR PROPOSALS June 16, 2004 Earth System Observations (Integrated Project)  Enhance coordinated efforts at data analysis and fill gaps in regional observing systems  Interfaces, interoperability, integration and linkages between observing systems  Improvement of monitoring technologies and standards  Identification of a set of geo-observational products  Observations for detection and documentation of climate change, including extreme events (e.g. ENSO)  Provide contribution to the Group on Earth Observation (GEO) and Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) (Deadline October 26, 2004)

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems THIRD CALL FOR PROPOSALS June 16, 2004 Specific Support Actions  Enhancing co-operation between Europe and the developing countries within the context of global earth observation systems (GEO) (Deadline October 26, 2004)

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems 3rd call deadline: 26 October 2004 (1st stage)

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems Earth System Science

E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o nCommunity Research Global Change and Ecosystems Information To build on current EU Research: europa.eu.int/comm/research/nfp.html Information on FP6: europa.eu.int/comm/research/nfp.html FP6 Instruments:europa.eu.int/comm/research/nfp/networks-ip.html