ECOOP – WP6 – System Development Leader: Roger Proctor (NERC-POL) - Started February tasks (actually 2 but written as 3) plus management Task1/Task2 System development – raising the level of each system, V1 of WP5, to V2 Done on a regional basis with different systems proposing different developments Task3 Validation of system developments in a Target Operation Period (TOP) Timescale Task1 – months 13 – 27 Task2 – months 13 – 33 Task3 – months 27 – 36

Objectives of WP6 Progressively develop and implement modelling elements required for individual systems. Advance the baseline systems of WP5, according to the priorities identified in WP4 and WP5, to reach V2, guided by the requirements of the decision support system (WP9), and available data streams (WP2, WP3) Harmonise revised model outputs with EuroMISS (WP8) and EuroDESS (WP9). Test each implementation in a TOP hindcast study Evaluate (where appropriate) improvement to baseline system.

ECOOP Systems

Short nameBalticNWSIBIMOONBSEADOWNPHYSECODATOPMAN DMI x*xxxxx BSH xxxxxx HCMR xxx IMS-METU xx*x MERCATOR x*xx METO (UK) x*xxxx MHI x*xxx NERC xx*xxxx USOF xxxx BIU xxxx* NERI xx FIMR xxxx IO-BAS x IST xxxxx MET.NO xxxx MUMM.RBINS xx*xxx PML xxxxx OPPE xxx SMHI xxxx UNIBO-CIRSA x*xxx UNIV-GDA xxx CNRS-POC xx*x IMI xxxx SYKE xxx NIMRD xx IEO xx * = task leader

Linkages WP8 WP4 WP5 WP3 WP2 WP6 WP9 WP7

Task 1 – Regional developments Baltic regional coastal systems Ole Karup Leth (DMI) - BSH, DMI, DMU-NERI, FIMR, SMHI, SYKE, UNIV-GDA Objectives: To develop Baltic coastal systems for the 3 targeted coastal areas: 1) Baltic-North Sea transition zone, 2) SE Baltic Sea and 3) Gulf of Finland. Description: Baltic Sea coastal system V1 is a coupled physical- ecological model with preliminary data assimilation for physical parameters. The V2 will focus on improved physical data assimilation and coupled ecological-sediment-wave process study. For each of the three targeted coastal areas, the V2 system will be a coupled physical-ecological-sediment-wave model, with a resolution of 0.5nm or higher and data assimilation of physical parameters.

Task 1 – Regional developments NW Shelf coastal systems Rosa Barciela (METO) - BSH, MET-NO, METO, NERC, PML, RBINS-MUMM Objectives: Enhance the three coastal systems as follows 1) North Sea: add sediment processes, assimilate SST, T/S profiles, sea level, CDOM 2) Liverpool Bay: downscale system (1nm to 0.2nm), assimilate HF radar currents 3) Western English Channel: add wave and sediment processes, assimilate ocean colour. Implement HAB prediction scheme.

Task 1 – Regional developments Irish and Iberian Atlantic coastal systems Dominique Obaton (MERCATOR) - CNRS-POC, IEO, IFREMER, IMI, IST, MERCATOR, PdE Objectives: Enhance the three systems as follows 1) downscaling techniques between 2 hydrodynamic models 2) add ecosystem processes: have the correct horizontal and vertical scales as well as advection scheme to be able to predict correctly HAB 3) assimilation of new type of data available near to the coast. Description: Complete the implementation of enhancements to the three coastal systems: 1) Coastal Irish shelf 2) Coastal Biscay shelf 3) Coastal Iberian shelf.

Task 1 – Regional developments Mediterranean coastal systems Marco Zavatarelli (UNIBO) - BIU, HCMR, UNIBO Objectives: Enhance the three systems as follows 1) Coupling the V1 MOON coastal models with an ecosystem model 2) implement the data assimilation technique suited for biogeochemical properties. Description: The main goal of this subtask is to proceed toward the implementation of enhancements to the three Mediterranean Moon coastal systems, namely 1) Adriatic Sea 2) Aegean Sea 3) Israeli shelf.

Task 1 – Regional developments Black Sea coastal systems Gennady Korotaev (MHI) - IMS-METU, MHI, NIMRD, USOF Objectives: Enhance the three systems as follows 1) assimilate altimetry, SST, ocean colour 2) add ecosystem processes, assimilate altimetry, SST, ocean colour 3) add ecosystem processes, assimilate altimetry, SST, ocean colour. Description: Complete the implementation of enhancements to the three coastal systems: 1) Bosphorus and Bulgarian coast 2) Romanian coast and NW shelf 3) Crimean coast and south- eastern Black Sea.

Task 2 – Who does what, where Downscaling Roger Proctor (NERC) - BSH, DMI, IST, NERC Objectives: 1) Downscale in Danish Straits transition zone, Liverpool Bay, and the Iberian coastal regions 2) Produce library of open boundary conditions and flooding- drying treatment. Description: This subtask will 1)Obtain appropriate resolution bathymetry (down to the resolution of 0.2km) 2)Establish new sub-domains, better accounting for inter-tidal areas where present 3)Contribute to a library of open boundary conditions and flooding-drying treatment.

Task 2 – Who does what, where Additional physical processes Patrick Luyten (RBINS-MUMM) - BSH, MET-NO, METO, NERC, PML, RBINS-MUMM Objectives: 1) Couple wave models into the NW shelf systems 2) Couple models to real-time river runoff (where available) Description: This subtask will 1)Conduct process studies with wave-current interaction 2)Provide an interface with real-time river runoff.

Task 2 – Who does what, where Ecosystem function Temel Oguz (IMS-METU) - BIU, BSH, DMI, FIMR, IFREMER, IMI, IMS-METU, IO-BAS, IST, MET-NO, METO, MHI, PML, RBINS- MUMM, SMHI, UNIBO, UNIV-GDA, USOF Objectives: 1) Implement appropriate ecosystem modules or improvements to existing ecosystem modules 2) Implement HAB prediction scheme Description: Complete 1)Identification of the key local physical and biogeochemical processes of potential importance to prediction of eutrophication, oxygen depletion, HABs and their consequences and descriptions in models. 2)Implement community sediment/ecosystem models as necessary in order to reach the same standard in ECOOP core areas. 3)Implement the most appropriate method (e.g. fuzzy logic routines, specialized functional groups) to make forecasts of both HAB type and probability.

Task 2 – Who does what, where Data Assimilation Pierre De Mey (CNRS-POC) - BIU, BSH, CNRS-POC, DMI, FIMR, HCMR, IMI, IMS-METU, IST, MERCATOR, MET-NO, METO, MHI, NERC, PdE, PML, RBINS-MUMM, SMHI, SYKE, UNIBO, USOF Objectives: 1) implement ecosystem modules or enhance existing ecosystem modules 2) construct a library of assimilation schemes Description: The different assimilation routines are implemented in different areas, e.g. SEEK in Eastern Mediterranean, EnKF/SEEK in the NW Shelf, OI/EnKF in the Baltic and Black Sea. Establish a library of assimilation schemes Implement schemes as necessary.

Task 3 – Validation & the TOP Hindcast validation and evaluation. Steve Brenner (BIU) - BIU, BSH, CNRS-POC, DMI, FIMR, HCMR, IEO, IFREMER, IMI, IMSMETU, IST, MERCATOR, MET-NO, METO, MHI, RBINS-MUMM, PML, NERC, PdE, SMHI, SYKE, UNIBO, UNIV-GDA, USOF Objectives: Demonstrate the improvements to the system, V2, over the baseline systems, V1 Description: For each system select a subset of the TOP of WP5, conduct a hindcast, and evaluate using standard metrics established under WP4.

Milestones Mo 27 Have V2 systems ready for TOP Mo 34 Complete TOP

Deliverables Mo33 D Report on the downscaling activities, and their impact. Library of open boundary conditions; flooding / drying conditions. D Report on the impact of wave coupling and the value of real-time river flows. D Report on the improvements to the different coastal ecosystem models and an assessment of the ecosystem response of V2. D Report on impact of data assimilation schemes. Library of data assimilation schemes.

Deliverables Mo36 D – D Reports describing the impact of the enhancements on 1) the Baltic coastal systems 2) the NW shelf coastal systems 3) the IBI-ROOS coastal systems 4) the Mediterranean coastal systems 5) the Black Sea coastal systems. D Report on TOP hindcast and evaluation. D Plans for Using and Disseminating of Knowledge, the Gender Action Plan, and for Raising Public Participation and Awareness

Grid nesting: - 10 km grid - 5 km grid m grid Operational BSH Model, Version 4 Downscaling Add processes Add assimilation

IBIROOS - NEATL36 = version V2 NEATL36 Ocean Model NEATL36 Assimilation Method Without assimilation for the moment NEATL36 : Mercator high resolution regional model Grid: tripolar (ORCA type) Resolution: 1/36° (horizontal) and 50 vertical levels (1m to 480 m) Parameterizations: Time splitting Partial steps Isopycnal laplacian diffusion for the tracers Biharmonic diffusion on the dynamic Energy and enstrophy conservating scheme TKE vertical mixing model Radiative OBC for 3D speed, characteristic method for 2D speed, upwind advection for tracer outflow & clamped OBC for tracer inflow CLIO Bulk formula Atmospheric forcing: Daily mean ECMWF analysis Monthly run off Prospects: High frequency signals : - 3h-atmospheric forcings, - Tide (: OBC forcing + tide potential) IBI