DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION IN MEXICO 3/1/2010

PHASE 1: Transitional Democracy  Breakdown of the old regime  Transition to democratic forms, procedures  Elections  Sovereignty  Rule of Law  Freedom of Information  Freedom of Association  Guarantees During Non-Election Times

PHASE 2: Democratic Consolidation  The behavior of the state is no longer dominated by the problem of how to avoid breakdown  Consolidation  Democratic Culture  Fair Access to Opportunity  Satisfaction of Collective Needs  Institutionalization

Negotiating Political Uncertainty  Contingent Consent:  The winners will not use their temporary superiority to bar the losers from taking office or exerting influence in the future in exchange for the losers respecting the right of the winners to make binding decisions.  Citizens obey the ensuing decisions provided the outcome remains contingent on fair and regular elections through which their collective preferences are expressed.  Bounded Uncertainty: Actors, issues, policies, etc. are bounded by constitutional guarantees; certain issues are beyond the bounds of the regular competition while others are explicitly included.

The Limits of Democracy  Democracy is not necessarily more efficient economically.  Democracy is not necessarily more efficient administratively.  Democracy is not necessarily more orderly, consensual, stable, or governable.  Democracy is not necessarily more open economically.

Mexico: Government Structures  Constitution of the United Mexican States (1917)  Federal System  Central Government Executive: President Legislative: Congress Senate Chamber of Deputies Judicial: Supreme Court of Justice  31 States and a Federal District (Mexico City)  Major Parties  PRI: Institutional Revolutionary Party  PAN: National Action Party  PRD: Party of the Democratic Revolution

Mexico: Breakdown of the Old Regime The PRI System  Managed elections  The party serves to share power between the revolutionary factions without the destructive rivalries that elections fostered  The party incorporates the mobilized peasantry through corporatist structures (state-mediated relations between business and workers) and land reform  Presidential nomination of successor

Mexico: Breakdown of the Old Regime  Why does the system fail?  Economic crisis of the 1980s  Rising levels of education and wealth  Rising levels of mobilization and democratic expectations  Democratic transition in Mexico has been about transforming (v. building or restoring) institutions to make them function democratically

Mexico: Transitional Democracy The 1988 – 2000 Period: Elections take on a genuine character  1988: the election of Carlos Salinas (PRI), the defeat of Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, and the rise of the PRD and the PAN  1994: the election of Ernesto Zedillo (PRI)  2000: the election of Vicente Fox (PAN)  IS THIS THE MOMENT OF CONSOLIDATION?

Mexico: Questionable Consolidation The 2006 Presidential Election  Was the election free and fair?  Was the government neutral?  Were the actors abiding by the rules of the game?  Did the candidates/parties respect the voters?  Were civil liberties and human rights respected?  Was the media free and fair?

Mexico: Continuing Challenges to Consolidation  Underdeveloped democratic institutions are vulnerable to manipulation  Failure to internalize democratic principles  Tenuous rule of law  Poverty, inequality, and slow economic growth  Challenges to the legitimacy of the current administration