Public spending pressures Robert Chote Carl Emmerson Christine Frayne

Total Managed Expenditure (TME)

Composition of total managed expenditure

What increases might we have?

CSR 2007 TME (real increase) TME – (health + education + ODA) TME – (health + education + ODA + SS and TC) PBR ( to ) – Labour years ( to ) Labour under Tory plans ( to ) SR to date ( to ) Current plans ( to ) Source: HM Treasury

CSR 2007 TME (real increase) TME – (health + education + ODA) TME – (health + education + ODA + SS and TC) PBR ( to ) – Labour years ( to ) Labour under Tory plans ( to ) SR to date ( to ) Current plans ( to ) Source: HM Treasury

CSR 2007 TME (real increase) TME – (health + education + ODA) TME – (health + education + ODA + SS and TC) PBR ( to ) – Labour years ( to ) Labour under Tory plans ( to ) –0.2–0.7–0.2 SR to date ( to ) Current plans ( to ) Source: HM Treasury

Possible CSR 2007 allocations TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.8 TME minus health, education, ODA 0.8 TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits –0.1 Source: HM Treasury

Possible CSR 2007 allocations TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME TME minus health, education, ODA TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits – Source: HM Treasury

Possible CSR 2007 allocations TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME TME minus health, education, ODA TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits – Source: HM Treasury

Possible CSR 2007 allocations TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME TME minus health, education, ODA –2.0 TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits – –4.9 Source: HM Treasury

Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME1.8 Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR (2005–06 terms) –£8½ bn Additional funding required (2005–06 terms) No change Source: HM Treasury

Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR (2005–06 terms) –£8½ bnNo change Additional funding required (2005–06 terms) No change +£8½ bn Source: HM Treasury

Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR (2005–06 terms) –£8½ bnNo change + £6½ bn Additional funding required (2005–06 terms) No change +£8½ bn+£15 bn Source: HM Treasury

Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios TME as PBR (1) TME constant as % GDP (2) Other spending constant as % GDP (3) TME constant in real terms TME Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR (2005–06 terms) –£8½ bnNo change + £6½ bn–£35½bn Additional funding required (2005–06 terms) No change +£8½ bn+£15 bn–£27 bn Source: HM Treasury

Public spending pressures Robert Chote Carl Emmerson Christine Frayne