Planning for Africa’s power sector Development Partners Perspective January 16, 2015 Abu Dhabi Demetrios Papathanasiou

Total installed capacity 87 GW (2012) Only 31% of the population with access Universal electrification is decades (?) away Modern Energy consumption 1% of OECD levels* 80% of households rely on biomass for cooking 30 countries face regular interruption of services Interruptions cost 6% of turnover to the formal sector and as much as 16% to the informal sector State Owned Utilities inefficiencies cost 0.8% of GDP Africa’s Major Electricity Challenges

 Currently, about 1-2 GW of new installed capacity deployed a year. Africa needs 6-7 GW  Access growing no more than 1% per year in the last decade  At this rate, less than 60% of Africans will have electricity in their homes by 2030  Currently, $9-10 billion invested yearly to provide first access to modern energy  Africa needs up to $40-50 billion yearly for universal access by 2030 Financing shortfall of 80% Investments Needed Sub-regions Avg. Yearly Investment ($B) Cumulative Till 2020 ($B) Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Total Current Investment Trend Sub-regions Avg. Yearly Investment ($B) Cumulative Till 2020 ($B) World Bank Other MDBs Emerging Financiers Private sector Total Challenge: Investment Gap 3

Why Planning is Important Tremendous needs to fulfill Energy Access aspirations Time pressure for service delivery Decision making – cumbersome and time consuming Long project cycles need to be shortened What if there is no plan?

Proper Planning Removes uncertainties on projects selection Builds consensus among stakeholders Facilitates financing – Provides confidence – Reduces processing time – Evaluation and appraisal is faster and effective – Accelerates service delivery

Better Planning Addresses Uncertainties is Dynamic – Updated every year – with major updates every 3-5 years Site and Resource specific Informs and is informed by Project Implementation

Thank you ! Demetrios Papathanasiou