Population Explosion and Control

Countries shift into post-transition as they experience the benefits of economic and social growth. These can include urbanization, the changed role of women within the society, a rich resource base, and accessibility to education, healthcare, and advanced technology.

This growth... is responsible for the completion of the demographic transition in countries as varied as Canada, Sweden, and Singapore. But what happens if a country does not achieve the level of economic and social development that leads to post-transition?

Too many people: The Demographic Trap Countries continue to experience a high birth rate instead of the declining birth rate of the late transition stage. This high BR coupled with a declining DR typical of late transition results in an increase in population.

Who cares? Well this increasing pop places great demands on the country for an increased food supply and for all kinds of services, including medical and educational services.

Consequently... The country does not have enough revenue to promote the economic and social development necessary to proceed to post-transition. The malthusian collapse becomes inevitable...population exceeds the carrying capacity of the country.

Overpopulation... Look at India, China, Lagos India’s pop growth = Ontario and Quebec combined meaning that annually!!! the Indian economy must provide everything that 19 million more people need.

Food The provision of enough food is the most basic problem associated with overpopulation. THANK-YOU Green Revolution...A series of agricultural methods caused improvements in crop yields. Between 1950-2000, India doubled its production of rice and wheat.

Education An educated pop. is considered vital in order for a country to move through demographic transition. India’s exploding pop. has a serious impact on its ability to educate its citizens. More than half of its adults remain illiterate.

The result... This low level of educational advancement has hindered India’s demographic transition. 2007 - India had about 360 million children under 15 yrs of age. Canada -only about 6 million children in that age range.

Employment Countries with pop explosions have difficulty providing jobs for the great number of people entering the workforce each year. India =10 million people annually. In 2007, the labour force in India was 516.4 million, with 60 percent in the agricultural sector vs. Canada 17.9 million, 2% in agri.

Population Control World’s two most populous countries, China and India, together have about 37 % of the world’s population. 2006 -China =1.3 billion, India =1.1 billion. Both countries have reduced Fertility Rates through government-driven pop control measures, but China has been more strict!

China’s approach to pop control 1950- China pop of 550 million 2006- In spite of drastic efforts to limit pop growth, China had 1.3 billion people in a land mass that is a little smaller than Cda. Imagine if we had to support more than 40 times as many people as we do.

Great leap forward policies enacted by the Chinese government at that time. Later in the form of ONE-CHILD POLICY had profound effects on the country’s pop

Impact of China’s pop policies... Chinese claim that the one-child policy has prevented 400 million births. A study shows that China’s fertility rate decreased from 5.8 children per women in the 70’s to 1.8 children per women in 2007.

At what cost? As in India, the gender gap is increasing. In 2005 it was 118:100. Estimated that 3.5 million girls were killed in China over a ten year period.

Policies to ensure the equality of women and to improve the education of girls have been implemented in an effort to rectify the gender imbalance. By 2020, about 40 million Chinese men will be unable to marry because not enough women will be available...leading to kidnapping and trafficking in women.

The future of Population Control What is next for the countries of the world that face the possibility of being caught in the demographic trap?

The UN addressed this question at the International Conference on Pop and Development (ICPD) in Cairo in 1994. Its aim was to come up with a series of policies that would help countries complete demographic transition while also developing their economies.

The ICPD realized... Countries would have more success controlling population growth if they adopted certain principles that lead to cultural, economic, and social development. These principles would provide a framework within which countries could develop specific plans for social and economic development that would then lead to lower fertility rates (see fig 6-15)

Problems with ICPD The different cultural, economic, and religious characteristics of the world’s countries have made it difficult for all nations to accept and carry out the principles proposed by the ICPD. View ICPD principles -what problems do you see