Raza Rumi

 Historical trends  Gains made during  Federalism – NFC Award & 18 th Amendment  Social protection  Marginalised citizens  Civil-military imbalance remains  Challenges: economy, energy, security  New power centres: Judiciary & Media

 Democratic consensus  Urban discontent  Terrorists reducing political space  NATO withdrawal  Political and sectarian violence  Growing power of militants as an election factor

 Opinion polls reflect varying trends  Fragmentation  IRI polls placed Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) and recently Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) ahead of the ruling party  The SDPI poll shows ruling PPP ahead by a thin margin  A weak coalition expected

 Possible: Coalition led by PMLN with regional parties  Possible: Coalition led by President Zardari’s PPP  Least likely: A majority win for PTI  Remote: Deadlock followed by military intervention

 Impartiality of caretaker governments  Efficacy of Election Commission?  Law & order and various types of violence  Women’s participation  Polling booths – access  Media responsibility?  Judicial neutrality/role of an arbiter

 Urgent economic stabilization  Growing energy crisis  NATO troops withdrawal in Afghanistan  Insurgency (Balochistan) & Urban violence (Karachi)  Handling extremist groups  Peace process with India  Public service delivery & local government

 Best case: Functional coalition, incremental reform & controlled chaos  Mixed: Weak coalition, economic crisis management, military calling the shots on security/foreign policy  Worst case: Fledgling democracy, Afghanistan spillover effect & deep instability

 Urgent focus on reform:  Political reform for legitimacy of democratic path  Economic reform for stabilisation  Security & counter terrorism  State-building in ungoverned areas such as FATA, Balochistan, Karachi etc  Correction of civil-military imbalance  Peace with India & shift in Afghan policy

 Engagement with Pakistan’s democracy & civilian institutions  Responsibility of not turning their back on the impending Afghan-Pakistan crisis  Re-tailoring aid from military to civilian – esp law enforcement agencies  A more nuanced appreciation of Pakistan’s internal transitions & dynamics