Future methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture Reference projection 2010 Martha M. van Eerdt RIVM Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency In coöperation with Klaas van der Hoek, Marian van Schijndel, Dik Beker, Kees Peek en Ruud van de Wijngaart February 28, 2003 Copenhagen

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Contents Objectives Method Historical analysis Policy analysis Choice of key assumptions Future emissions Uncertainties Concusions

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Projection objectives Make most likely projection of developments in livestock numbers, fertilising regime and GHG emissions until 2010 Extra -Include implemented and adopted measures -Pay ample attention to sensitivity of results to uncertain developments

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Reference projection Method: description of the procedures Analyses of key sources in the past Identification of key uncertainties Analysis of policies and economic development Choice of key assumptions Simulation of livestock development and fertilising regime Calculation of future emissions Key uncertainties Several reviews and iterations

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 National emissions (43 Mton CO 2 -eq) and share of agriculture, 2000

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Key sources from agriculture, 2000

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Historical trend

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Policy instruments and economic development National policies on manure manure transfer contract system MINeral Accounting System Buying up of rights to produce EU policy on milk quota Economic development dairy farming most competitive

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Choice of key assumptions Base year: 1997/2000 Nitrogen manure standards: -grassland: 250 kg N per hectare -arable land: 170 kg N per hectare Willingness of arable farmers to accept manure Export and manure treatment: 25 Kton N Increase milk quota: 0,6% after 2006 Increase milk productivity: 1,3% per year

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Development livestock numbers

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Projection of the fertilising regime

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Future emissions

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Uncertainties High reference projection Projection of activities +14% CH4, ca 1% N2O -ammonia abatement, manure treatment -no rights to produce -no milk quota Emission factors ?

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Uncertainties Low reference projection Projection of activities -9% CH4, - 10% N2O -no derogation -no EU premia for beef cattle Emission factors ?

Martha M. van Eerdt CH4 and N2O projection 2010 Concusions Manure policy reduces emission of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture Uncertainties due to policy changes are greater than uncertainties due to economic developments Include reviews in projections