Risk Management Association Long Island Economic Update What Lies Ahead? Dr. Martin R. Cantor, CPA Long Island Center for Socio-Economic Policy www.martincantor.com.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Halftime Highlights Minnesota at Mid-Decade. Minnesota Ranks 1 st in home ownership 2 nd in labor force participation 3 rd highest in high school completion.

Advertisements

Maine Workforce Conditions & Outlook Presented to the Joint Standing Committee on Labor, Commerce, Research, and Economic Development January 29, 2013.

The Dismal Economy Heather Boushey Center for Economic and Policy Research 8 April 2005.

“Medicaid Made Simple” in West Virginia House Government Organization Committee February 2, 2012 Renate Pore, Health Policy Director WV Center on Budget.

The Missouri Economy: In Transition or Decline? David M. Mitchell Associate Professor –Dept. of Economics Director—Bureau of Economic Research and the.

1 The distribution of the State budget – 2008: social services are one-third of the total budget Total budget: NIS 323 billion Not including debt servicing.

The Republic of the Marshall Islands and other Island Areas A Comparative Analysis of Selected Demographic, Social & Economic Indicators May 2003.

The School Finance Outlook for and Beyond Legislative Revenue Office April 2010.

NEO Regional Economic Trends 10/21/2014. The NEO System: Metro and Regional EDOs.

1 Reducing the Gaps in Society: Policy Challenges in the Era of Globalization Dr. Karnit Flug June 2007 Taub Center Conference.

Nevada County Conditions, Trends, and Forecasts 2007.

Employment, Income and Population Change in Curry County May 6, 2009 Mallory Rahe Extension Community Economist Oregon State University.

Regional economic distinctions are essential in better understanding New York’s economic challenges.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter 17: Short-term Economic Fluctuations 1.Identify the.

Chapter 11, Section 3.  Another way to examine the economic well being of a nation is to measure the number of people who are living in poverty.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2 nd Annual LEARN Conference Atlanta, Georgia March 29, 2010 Samuel Addy, Ph.D. Center for Business and Economic Research.

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ.

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ.

Economic-Political Systems

NYS Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics Frank M. Surdey, Managing Economist May 2008 Labor Market and Demographic Trends in Greene.

The South Carolina and Santee-Lynches Economies: Recession, Recovery, Then What? Dr. Don Schunk Research Economist Center for Economic & Community Development.

Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC The Economy and Poverty in Los Angeles County MENDing Poverty Conference.

Fairfax Committee of 100 February 24, 2015 The Northern Virginia and Washington Area Regional Economic Outlook David E. Versel, AICP Senior Research Associate.

cteconomy.uconn.edu Top Ten Economic Myths Myth #10 Recovery? What Recovery?

The Greater Boston Housing Challenge Barry Bluestone Center for Urban and Regional Policy Northeastern University WBZ “Attaining the American Dream” October.

Warmup  What is unemployment?. Unit 5 Measuring Economic Performance GDP, Business Cycle, Inflation, Unemployment.

Arizona Outlook ACMA Winter Conference February 5, 2009.

Rhode Island Edward Mazze, Ph.D. Distinguished University Professor of Business Administration University of Rhode Island.

Beyond The Great Recession: 2020 A Regional Summit for the Communities of South Central Pennsylvania June 13, 2012 York Holiday Inn, York, PA.

The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.

Population, Income, and Expenditures George Haynes Doug Young Myles Watts Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics Montana State University Support.

1 of 31 Principles of MacroEconomics: Econ101.  Aggregate Demand  Factors That Can Change AD  Short-Run Aggregate Supply  Short-Run Equilibrium 

1 The Players and the Goals In this experiment, each team controls a firm that sells to a group of consumers. Firms select what price.

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Benson, AZ.

2015 Labor Day Report: Annual Report on the State of Montana’s Economy Barbara Wagner Chief Economist Labor Arbitration Conference October 8, 2015 Fairmont,

DBIA-MAR Luncheon February 19, 2013 The U.S. and Washington Area Economies’ Current Economic Performance and Near-Term Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.

The Farm and Food System Chapter 2. Agriculture’s Role in US Economy What do you consider Agriculture? Agriculture includes: Family Farms Corporate Farms.

The Massachusetts Housing Challenge Barry Bluestone Center for Urban and Regional Policy Northeastern University Greater Boston Real Estate Board LINK.

BOOM OR BUST: WHICH SIDE OF THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY DO YOU SIT ON? Janet Harrah, Senior Director Center for Economic Analysis and Development Northern Kentucky.

1 January 25, Nebraska Profile 2011 NEBRASKA PROFILE Ninth Edition  State, 8 Regions, 93 Counties, plus 18 Cities – Three Volumes  Demographic.

Types of Unemployment Frictional Unemployment

Salt Lake Real Estate Market Performance in 2014 Total Sales: 1.Single family down 1.7% to 11,500 homes. 2.Condos unchanged at 3,000 units. Value of Sales:

Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Douglas, AZ.

1 January 27, Nebraska Profile 2010 NEBRASKA PROFILE Eighth Edition  State, 8 Regions, 93 Counties, plus 18 Cities – Three Volumes  Demographic.

Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast Presented by: Santee-Lynches Regional COG & The BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development at Coastal.

Measuring the Economy Goals 9.01 & Why does the government need to know what the economy is doing?  The government makes decisions that affect.

The Greater Boston Housing Report Card Bonnie Heudorfer and Barry Bluestone with Chase Billingham and Lauren Nicoll Prepared by the Center for.

Chapter 2 The Economy: Myth and Reality E pluribus unum (Out of many, one) MOTTO ON U.S. CURRENCY.

2015 Labor Day Report: Annual Report on the State of Montana’s Economy Barbara Wagner Chief Economist State Workforce Investment Board Meeting September.

San Juan County Workers Workforce depletion since 1990 Why are our young people leaving? What can we do about it? A Report by the Orcas Research Group.

An Overview of the State’s Economy and Demographics Legislative Analyst’s Office Presented to: Assembly Committee on Jobs, Economic Development,

The Widening Income Dispersion in Hong Kong: 1986 – 2006 LUI Hon-Kwong Dept of Marketing & International Business Lingnan University (March 14, 2008)

Jobs and Minnesota’s Future Tom Stinson, State Economist January, 2011.

2015 Labor Day Report: Annual Report on the State of Montana’s Economy Barbara Wagner Chief Economist Labor Arbitration Conference October 8, 2015 Fairmont,

 Economic measures such as GDP & GNP measure the value of goods and services produced by Americans. But as Robert F. Kennedy argued, not all goods and.

2010 State Of The Valley Conference. 1,800 square miles 40 Cities, 4 counties 2.9 million people, 36 percent foreign born 1.4 million workers 81 percent.

Fiscal Cliff and Economic Indicators By: Nolan Wurm Matthew Schweikart.

December 3, The State of The Economy In this presentation National forecasts are produced by Global Insight, Inc. State and Metropolitan forecasts.

The Housing Market ‘Reset’ and its Implications for Housing Policy Alan Mallach Non-resident Senior Fellow The Brookings Institution.

Ch Gross Domestic Product & Growth Sect. 1 - Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product - The dollar value of all final goods and services produced.

FACING ECONOMIC CHALLENGES Unemployment  Poverty  Inflation.

Do Now List the 3 major goals of economic policymakers. What measures can we use to quantify the performance of the economy in these three areas?

The Massachusetts Economic Challenge Barry Bluestone Center for Urban and Regional Policy Northeastern University Massachusetts Building Trades Council.

Chapter 13SectionMain Menu Types of Unemployment Unemployment: Occurs when people are without work and are actively seeking work. Frictional Unemployment.

1 Sect. 3 - Measurement of Economic Performance Module 10 - The Circular Flow & GDP What you will learn: How economists use aggregate measures to track.

Real Estate and the Economy. Nightly Trivia Q) What is considered one of the slimmest buildings ever designed? Q) What is considered one of the slimmest.

Essential Standard 1.00 Understand the role of business in the global economy. 1.

John Tuccillo Issues in Property Management: The Economic and Market Environment for Rental Housing John Tuccillo

Strome College of Business

MEASURING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Presentation transcript:

Risk Management Association Long Island Economic Update What Lies Ahead? Dr. Martin R. Cantor, CPA Long Island Center for Socio-Economic Policy February 7, 2014

Long Island’s Future Workforce Is Leaving The Region The Millenials - Long Island Births Long Island’s Young People Long Island Long Island Births % Household Decade Births Population Population Size : 331,700 2,609, % : 381,082 2,753, % 2.95 ========================================================= Ages ,126 2,753, % ,626 2,831, % 3.04 =========================================================

ALL LONG ISLAND JOBS ARE NOT CREATED EQUAL SHIFT FROM HIGH PAYING TO LOW PAYING JOBS, 17,211 Manufacturing Jobs Lost Dropped from 8.1% to 6.4% 1900 jobs lost in ,284 Construction Jobs Gained Increase Sandy Related Increased from 6.4% to 6.7% 18,933 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Information Tech Jobs Lost Dropped from 13.7% to 11.6% Lower Paying Service Sectors 65.7% 2000 Workforce -69.7% 2012 (ALL DATA FROM US Census ) SUMMARY HIGHER PAYING LOWER PAYING JOBS LOST: JOBS GAINED: 36,144 99,579 Total Jobs Gained 67,362 (5.1%) 17

Long Island’s Declining Economic Strength The Results of Workforce Shift From (Real Dollars Adjusted for Inflation) $1.5 BILLION LOSS in Buying Power ( ) $1,250 PER PERSON REDUCTION in Spending 2.8% Loss of GRP During Great Recession ( ) $500 MILLION LOSS in GRP ( )

Long Island’s Eroding Labor Force Between 2000 and 2012 Fewer Long Islanders Over 16 Years of Age Working Percent of the labor force not employed increased 181.6% from from 3.8% to 6.9% Percent of over 16 population in labor force increased by 2.6% (64.2% in 2000 unchanged since %) Percent of over 16 population employed decreased by.8% from (61.3% in 2012)

Unrest in Long Island’s Manufacturing Sector LONG ISLAND FORUM FOR TECHNOLOGY STUDY: 34% MANUFACTURING FIRMS LIKELY TO LEAVE (1,200 Companies) 56% Agreed that the manufacturing sector would contract over the next five years Resulting in: 25,000 ADDITIONAL HIGH PAYING JOBS LOST and $1.25 BILLION in ANNUAL WAGES LOST Just this alone over 30 years = $37.4 BILLION LOST

2012 Long Island Family Income (stated in 2000 dollars) Median 2012 Family Income: Nassau County $80,208-Decreased 1.3% from 2000 Suffolk County $71,222- Decreased.5% from 2000 Per 2012 Capita Income: Nassau County $30,274-Decreased 5.8% from 2000 Suffolk County $26,360-Decreased.82% from 2000

Long Island Family Income Distribution – 2012 The Wealthier Got Wealthier Family Income % LI Increase Family Income Bracket Families (Decrease) 2012 from 2000 Below$10,000-$24, % (30.4%) ( 9.1% ) $25,000-$49, % (32.0%) ( ) $50,000-$99, % (28.7%) (39.6% ) $100,000-$199, % 43.9% (26.5% ) Over $200, % 130.1% (6.7% )

Between 2000 and 2012 Long Islands Population Increased by 2.8% While Over 60 Year Olds Increased by 90,000 (+18.7%) 20 to 60 Year Olds Increased by 9,350 (+.62%) Under 20 Year Olds Decreased 22,000 (-2.9%) LONG ISLANDS GROWTH DEPENDS ONTHE RETENTION AND ATTRACTION OF THE YOUNG WORKFORCE Long Island is Aging

Long Island’s Economy: Where Do We Go From Here -Hurricane Sandy- Nearly $2 billion in short term spending -multiplier of $1 billion = $3 billion economic activity. -LI housing prices have bottomed out-dropping 56 % between 2005 and 2012: Sales prices increased by 1% since LI home sales fell - 49,000 homes selling for $30.3 billion in 2005 to 23,287 homes selling for $13.6 billion in 2012: 22,642 homes sold in 2013 for $8.1 billion -LI foreclosure notices increased from 6,249 in 2005 to in Have leveled off in LI Rental housing decreased by 7.8% since 2010 to 18.4% of LI housing. -New York City/Long Island Gross Regional Product 2011 increase of.08% (to $1.28 trillion) lags behind national 1.66% increase

Hurricane Long Island’s Economy: Where Do We Go From Here CONCLUSION -Long Island Economy slowly recapturing the 3.3% Gross Regional Product lost during Great Recession. -The process will be slow-LI is now a low multiplier service sector economy spin off lower paying secondary jobs. -Higher paying manufacturing jobs (6.4% of 2012 workforce 8.07 in 2000) will leave region for less expensive places, causing loss in the secondary jobs that they create. -Fewer Long Islanders in workforce with fewer working. -Lower family and Per Capita income in high cost region. -Housing prices will take time to rebound-prospective purchasers are earning less income and young people are leaving the region. More homes sold for less $.