CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing 10/15/2015© 2009 Keith A. Pray 1 Class 10 Errors, Failures, And Risk Keith A. Pray Instructor socialimps.keithpray.net

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 2 10/15/2015 Overview 1. Errors, Failures, And Risks 2. Assignment 3. Students Present 4. Brannen Hough – Patriot Missile

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 3 10/15/2015 Overview 1. Errors, Failures, And Risks 2. Assignment 3. Students Present 4. Brannen Hough – Patriot Missile

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 4 10/15/2015 Term Project For your emerging information processing technology :  Be sure you address how likely will that technology be adopted at large in the next year? The next 5? The next 10?  Predict how the technology will effect people and society at large after 1 year. 5 years. 10 years. You could use a timeline to base your predictions. Feel free to update your timeline with new material you find useful. Chapter 7 should be very helpful as well. Paper  Minimum 1 page per subject/chapter in book  1 paper section per subject/chapter  Each Section should follow the same guidelines as our 1 page paper assignments, outside references included.

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 5 10/15/2015 Overview 1. Errors, Failures, And Risks 2. Assignment 3. Students Present 4. Brannen Hough – Patriot Missile

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Cyber Police – Ethan Truong Cyber Crime Categories Case Study: Titan Rain Case Study: Conficker Worm © 2009 Keith A. Pray 6 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Categories – Ethan Truong Unauthorized access Virus/Worm attack DoS/DDoS Logic bomb Trojan attack Cyberstalking Salami attack Data diddling bombing spoofing Intellectual property crime © 2009 Keith A. Pray 7 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Case Study: Titan Rain – Ethan Truong Exploited vulnerabilities in several military information systems  Sites included U.S. Army Information Systems Engineering Command at Fort Huachuca, Arizona and Defense Information Systems Agency in Arlington, Virginia (5) The US Department of Defense charged the United States Strategic Command to defend the Global Information Grid © 2009 Keith A. Pray 8 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Case Study: Conficker Worm – Ethan Truong Infects at least 5 million machines (2)  including The French Navy (3) and UK Ministry of Defense (4) Microsoft offers $250,000 for information leading to Conficker author(s) © 2009 Keith A. Pray 9 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing References – Ethan Truong nlx= fgsouYpSj99UzKMMVJyynQ 2 nlx= fgsouYpSj99UzKMMVJyynQ fighter-planes-grounded-by-computer-virus.html 3 fighter-planes-grounded-by-computer-virus.html © 2009 Keith A. Pray 10 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Cell Phone Viruses John Sivak Overview What are they? How do I get them? Why should I care? What can I do? © 2009 Keith A. Pray 11 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing What are they? John Sivak Really Trojans Also affects PDAs Can spread through Bluetooth/MMS/online downloads © 2009 Keith A. Pray 12 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Why should I care? John Sivak Cabir  First cell phone virus  Transmitted via Bluetooth  Mostly Harmless Variants © 2009 Keith A. Pray 13 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Why should I care? John Sivak Skulls  Disables almost everything Mosquito  Sends text messages without user's knowledge Brador  Has access to everything in your phone © 2009 Keith A. Pray 14 10/15/ © 2009 Keith A. Pray

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing John Sivak © 2009 Keith A. Pray 15 10/15/ © 2009 Keith A. Pray

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing What can I do? John Sivak © 2009 Keith A. Pray 16 10/15/2015 Take precautions Know what you are downloading Antivirus software

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing John Sivak © 2009 Keith A. Pray 17 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 18 10/15/2015 Risks of Computer Systems Tim Flynn 1. What are we risking? 2. How risks can cause damage 3. How we benefit from taking risks 4. Closure

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing What are we risking? Tim Flynn 1. Lives 2. Money 3. Trust © 2009 Keith A. Pray 19 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 20 10/15/2015 Damage risks can cause Tim Flynn 1. Personal computers 2. Company computer systems 3. Banking systems 1. Bank of America

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 21 10/15/2015 Benefits from taking risks Tim Flynn 1. Education 2. New / Improved technologies

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 22 10/15/2015 Closure Tim Flynn 1. Risks and failures are inevitable 1. But we should still try to avoid risks 2. Are the risks worth the benefits? 3. Questions?

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing A look at when Technology bites the dust. © 2009 Keith A. Pray 23 10/15/2015 By: Anton Zalutsky

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Microsoft Vista Vista was designed to increase security of XP. Most people still preferred XP Vista has hardware requirements? Vista ran slower than XP © 2009 Keith A. Pray 24 10/15/2015 Anton Zalutsky

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing 1985: Gateway and Dell were both mega billion dollar businesses. 2004: HP and Dell were 75% of the market while Gateway was 25% 2007: Gateway was bought out by Acer for $710 million Never entered Laptop Industry, Diversification into consumer electronics Didn’t do well in selling PC’s to corporations © 2009 Keith A. Pray 25 10/15/2015 Anton Zalutsky

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing World’s largest video sharing site Estimated loss of $470 million in 2009 YouTube’s expenses are $711 million © 2009 Keith A. Pray 26 10/15/2015 Anton Zalutsky

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Segway "It will be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy" –Dean Kamen 2002: Launch of the Segway Failed to price correctly © 2009 Keith A. Pray 27 10/15/2015 Anton Zalutsky

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Learn from your mistakes! Don’t release a product if its not ready! Follow the shifting of Technology! Have a business model! Pricing your product is as important as the idea! © 2009 Keith A. Pray 28 10/15/2015 Anton Zalutsky

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing References: cms, Times Article on failures cms world/how-vista-mistakes-guided-changes- windows-development-890, Vista mistakes world/how-vista-mistakes-guided-changes- windows-development Segway All pictures were grabbed from google image search and I don’t take credit for any of them! © 2009 Keith A. Pray 29 10/15/2015

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 30 10/15/2015 Overview 1. Errors, Failures, And Risks 2. Assignment 3. Students Present 4. Brannen Hough – Patriot Missile

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing 10/15/2015© 2009 Keith A. Pray 31 Class 10 The End Keith A. Pray Instructor socialimps.keithpray.net

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 32 10/15/2015 Risk What is it? Chance of it happening?  Random, Historical statistics, Analysis Give examples of risks with computer systems

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 33 10/15/2015 Predicting Risk What are the factors? Enough data to be statistically significant? Can you reduce or increase your own risk?  Chance  Severity

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 34 10/15/2015 Reliability Of Statistics Are other factors controlled? Is enough time covered? Is all data reported?

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 35 10/15/2015 Cost-Benefit Analysis How much does it cost? What do I get for this cost?

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 36 10/15/2015 Risk-Benefit Analysis What could go wrong? How likely is it? How costly are the consequences?

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 37 10/15/2015 Limitations to Risk-Benefit Analysis Hard to quantify probabilities Hard to quantify costs Who bears the costs? Are the potential benefits worth it?

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 38 10/15/2015 Some Measures Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) Mean Time To Repair (MTTR)

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 39 10/15/2015 Relying Too Much Limits of modeling reality Limits of precision Limits of algorithms Limits of interpretation

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 40 10/15/2015 Value of Intuition Are results reasonable?

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 41 10/15/2015 Producing Good Software Good specifications Good usability Good design Robustness Good implementation Testing

CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2009 Keith A. Pray 42 10/15/2015 Plan For The Long Term Version control Future development New platforms Patches Security Training Customer support