Is Desalination Our Future? April, 2010 Paul Helliker General Manager Marin Municipal Water District

“If we could produce fresh water from salt water at a low cost, that would indeed be a great service to humanity and would dwarf any other scientific accomplishment.” JFK

Water Stress Globally IPCC, 2008

15 Model Runs: compared to Climate Model Predictions

Climate Skeptic Theories

Trends in Runoff Timing DWR, 2007

Precipitation Variability DWR, 2007

CA Snowpack Predictions DWR, 2010

L. Flint, 2009 Projected Runoff Changes

L. Flint, 2009 Projected Runoff Changes

DWR, 2010

“All I’m saying is now is the time to develop a technology to deflect an asteroid” Lessons from the Past

DWR, 2010 Strategies for Water Resources

Desalination: Israel FACILITIES: Hadera (92) Palmachim (33) Soreq (108) Ashdod (72) Ashkelon (83)

PlantLocationCapacity (MGD) % of Supply StartupCost Gold Coast Brisbane33/ $1.30 B Perth 38/ $420 M KurnellSydney66/ $2.06 B SouthernPerth/ Bunbury 13/ $1.04 B WonthaggiMelbourne108/ $3.80 B Port Stanvac Adelaide $1.98 B Desalination in Australia

Gold Coast Kurnell Wonthaggi Port Stanvac Southern Perth Desalination in Australia

Desalination in Spain  20 new plants planned for the SE  Will double the capacity in Spain  Will provide about 50% of the area’s water need

Current Desalination Facilities

Proposed Plants in CA  20+ new plants planned  425 MGD of capacity proposed (= to 20% of MWD daily)  Largest in Southern California

Zone 7 SCVWD ACWD SFPUC MMWD EBMUD CCWD SCWA Solano CWA Water Supply in SF Bay Area  Mix of Wholesale and Retail Agencies  MMWD Supplies from Local Reservoirs (75%) and Russian River (22%)

Sources of Water

N HOME DEPOT SHORELINE PARKWAY HWY 580 TO SAN RAFAEL NORTH SAN FRANCISCO BAY HWY 580 TO RICHMOND 24” DESALINATED WATER PIPELINE TO MMWD DISTRIBUTION 36” SOURCE WATER PIPELINE MMWD DESALINATION FACILITY EXISTING MMWD PELICAN WAY STORAGE SITE 36” INTAKE PIPELINE UNDER PIER FULL SCALE FACILITY INTAKE SCREENS AND PUMP STATION 24” BRINE PIPELINE BRINE PIPELINE CONNECTS TO EXISTING CMSA VALVE BOX CENTRAL MARIN SANITATION AGENCY (CMSA) EXISTING CMSA EFFLUENT PIPELINE EXISTING CMSA OUTFALL (8,600 FT. +/-) TO SIR FRANCIS DRAKE N PACIFIC OCEAN SAN FRANCISCO BAY PROJECT LOCATION MMWD Full Scale Desalination Project

The Long-Term Deficit MMWD Water Demand vs. Available Supply acre-feet per year ,000 5,000 0,000 5,000 0,000 5,000 Available Water Supply Water Demand With Current Water Demand Without Current Conservation Shortage without current conservation plan: 6,700 Acre-feet per year Shortage with current conservation plan: 3,300 Acre-feet per year

Brine Mixture Bioassays Acute bioassays on mysid shrimp, topsmelt, marine algae at 79%, 27% and 5% brine –No significant impacts Chronic bioassays on giant kelp, bay mussel, inland silverside at 79% and 27% brine –No significant impacts under EPA protocol (correct salinity) –Sublethal impacts for high- brine mix –No major differences from sewage effluent alone

Pilot Plant Entrainment Study Objectives Direct measurement of species composition, seasonal distribution, and densities of: –Ichthyoplanton (larval fish and eggs) –Crab (Cancer spp.) –Shrimp (Crangon spp.) –Oyster

Results Relatively low densities, except for Pacific herring Pacific herring, Northern anchovy, gobies most common larval fish Greatest abundance of fish larvae and eggs was March – mostly herring Entrainment was not a significant impact – on a similar scale to ratio of intake to source (0.0071%)

Sampling and Analysis Plan Sampling and Analysis Plan tests for: –126 Regulated Compounds or Compounds that Require Monitoring –538 Non-Regulated Compounds –100 Non-Regulated Compounds specific to SF Bay –21 Sampling Events 6,500 Data Points to Evaluate Water Quality and Treatment Performance

Desalinated Water Quality Results Constituents Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) a SF Bay Water a Desalinated Water a Existing MMWD Sources a SodiumN/A7, – 20 Chloride250 b 12, – 21 Total Organic Carbon (TOC) 2c2c 0.86ND1 – 2 Boron1d1d ND – 0.28 Ethylene Dibromide e ND Mercury0.002ND e ND a - ppm b – Federal Secondary (aesthetic) Standard c – based on MMWD source water quality d – CA DHS notification level e – 4 of 5 samples tested non-detect Detailed List of Constituent Sample Results Available

Sea Level : SF

Sea Level Rise Projection

 Currently, 260,000 people in California are at risk from a 100-year flood  Most are protected by adequate flood barriers  With a 1.4 m sea-level rise, 480,000 would be at risk – 85% increase Population at Risk from Flooding

Population vulnerable to a 100-year flood along the San Francisco Bay, by county At Risk with Sea Level Rise CountyCurrent risk 0.5 m1.0 m1.4 m% Increase (w/1.4 m) Alameda12,00022,00043,00066, Contra Costa 8401,6003,4005, Marin25,00029,00034,00039, Napa , San Francisco ,6003, San Mateo80,00088,00099,000110, Santa Clara 13,00017,00024,00031, Solano3,7005,5008,80012, Sonoma Total140,000160,000220,000270, Note: Counties with borders on the Pacific coast and the San Francisco Bay (e.g., San Mateo) were separated based on the shoreline affected. Numbers may not add up due to rounding.

 28 wastewater treatment plants identified as at risk in California  21 of these (3/4) are in the San Francisco Bay Area  Higher sea levels will threaten facilities and will also affect discharge hydrodynamics Wastewater Facilities