FTA’s Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM) John D. Giorgis Federal Transit Administration Director, Office of Strategic Planning

Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM) TERM assesses the current physical condition of the nation’s transit assets and long-term investment needs to achieve different targets FTA’s national-level capital needs analysis tool Designed for analysis of: State of Good Repair (SGR) backlog Average asset conditions 20-year reinvestment & expansion needs Impact of different funding levels Impact of Cost/Benefit criteria Asset life expectancy

How Does TERM Lite Work? Investment Policy Asset Inventory Asset conditions and quantities Cost to replace Asset Inventory When to rehab & replace Funding Priorities Investment Policy SGR backlog Asset conditions Reinvestment needs Prioritized plan SGR Forecast What do I own & what condition is it in? What are my potential backlog, condition and performance outcomes? What would I like to do, how much funding do I have, what are my priorities?

TERM Asset Database Includes All Asset Types Stations / Facilities Transportation Networks Administration Maintenance Passenger Guideway Track Dedicated Lanes Transit Asset Database Vehicle Fleets Systems Rail Buses / Vans / Non-Revenue Electrification Communications Control Systems Equipment / Furnishings New Technologies NTD data Maintenance Equip. Computers Elevators / Escalators - AVL / CAD / APC Real Time Info

Decay Curves: Asset Condition vs. Age Condition from onsite inspections plotted against age Rating criteria defined for more than 40 bus components Use condition 2.5 as the definition for end of useful life

Expected Life using Condition 2.5 Threshold SGR Backlog

Capital Reinvestment Needs Forecast - SGR Backlog Evaluate reinvestment backlog and out-year replacement needs $77.7 B backlog $14.4 B average = 5.4 years behind

TERM Lite TERM vs. TERM Lite Capability TERM TERM-Lite Level of Analysis National Local / Regional Intended User Group FTA Local operators Life Cycle Driver Condition (estimated) Age Prioritization Benefit-cost analysis User defined criteria Output Format Access Tables Excel Output (current and forecast) SGR backlog Asset conditions 20-yr reinvestment needs TERM for local or regional transit agencies Well-documented and user friendly, training is available For local long-term capital planning analysis MS Access application Free through FTA Comparable to HERS-St

TERM Lite: Support for Capital Planning TERM Lite Capabilities Function Question Addressed TERM Output SGR Monitoring Where are we today? Current SGR backlog Asset conditions SGR Management (“What if” Analysis) Where can I be tomorrow? Is backlog increasing / decreasing? What level of investment to attain SGR in 10 years? 20 years? How will change in backlog impact service reliability? O&M Costs? Long-Term Capital Plan Support How should I prioritize limited investment dollars? Multi-criteria prioritization rankings Long term SGR plan

Excel Export: Performance Forecast Metrics provide performance implications of alternative prioritizations and expenditure levels

Questions? John D. Giorgis Federal Transit Administration Director, Office of Strategic Planning john.giorgis@dot.gov