METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES’ ROLE IN AGROMETEOROLOGY By Keithley Meade Director, Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services Phone: Cell:

What is weather? Weather is the state of the atmosphere at a specific time and place with respect to heat or cold, wetness or dryness, calm or storm, clearness or cloudiness. Climate is the weather at some location averaged over some long period of time. 2

Weather is defined by elements which are measured either by special instruments or are observed. These measurements are then recorded and used in the making of weather reports, forecasts and climate graphs. Some elements are: Temperature Rainfall Wind speed & Direction Air Pressure Visibility Cloud Cover Sunshine 3

Weather Systems Weather systems that affect Antigua and Barbuda annually are typically: High pressure ridges High pressure ridges Tropical waves Tropical waves Troughs Troughs Fronts Fronts Storms/hurricanes Storms/hurricanes 4

Climate - Definition 5 Climate is defined more rigorously as the statistical description of weather in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years

Climate Change – Definition 6

Climate Change - Variability 7

Expected climate change impacts for region include Expected climate change impacts for region include: Increased temperatures Reduced agricultural yields Increased danger of wild fire Heat stress injury and death Coral bleaching Biodiversity loss Increased emergence of vector borne diseases Increased water demand 8 Climate Change: Challenges for the Caribbean

Changes in rainfall patterns Increased frequency of droughts Increased frequency of heavy precip events Decreased fresh water availability Lower agricultural yields/crop damage and increase livestock death 9 Climate Change: Challenges for the Caribbean

Climate Change: A priority for the Caribbean Increased intensity of storm activity 2 – 11% increase in intensity by 2100 Increased number of major hurricanes 20% increase in precip rate within 100 km 6 – 34% decrease in frequency globally Decrease in number of named storms Note: These are global numbers 10

Meteorological Services’ Role Provide information services based on the weather elements that we collect. ► Drought and Precipitation Statement ►Temperature Statement ►Wind Statement ►Monthly Weather Summaries ►Yearly Weather Summaries ►Hurricane Season Summary ►Antiguan Hurricanes and Storms to 2010 Drought and Precipitation StatementTemperature StatementWind StatementMonthly Weather SummariesYearly Weather SummariesHurricane Season SummaryAntiguan Hurricanes and Storms to

Meteorological Services’ Role ► Climate Data Forecasts/Outlooks ►7-Day Forecast for Antigua ►7-Day Forecast for Barbuda ►3 to 10 Day Hazardous Weather Outlook ►Monthly Weather ►Seasonal Weather ►Wet Season Weather ►El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ►Tropical Cyclones Climate Data7-Day Forecast for Antigua7-Day Forecast for Barbuda3 to 10 Day Hazardous Weather OutlookMonthly WeatherSeasonal WeatherWet Season WeatherEl Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Tropical Cyclones All of this information can be found on our website at 12

CONCLUSIONS Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services will work with CAMI to strengthen our delivery of Agro- meteorological services to farmers in Antigua and Barbuda. We will work with CAMI to strengthen our data collection and improve our staff’s ability to interpret data collected to produce relevant information. We will use our reputation as a forecasting entity to encourage farmers to use Agro-meteorological information. Will seek to reestablish a data culture and pledge any expertise that we can provide in this regard.

Any Questions?