1 Energy to Power the World: II  Fossil Fuel (continued)  How it’s used, who uses it  How long will it last?

2 Today’s oil is yesterday’s plankton  Small marine and lake organisms live in surface waters  They die, fall to the bottom and get buried into an organic rich sedimentary layer  If geologic processes heat and squeeze these rocks sufficiently, they will create crude oil and natural gas from the fossils  Crude oil and natural gas will migrate toward the surface  Geologic traps must exist to create an oil field

3 Examples of geologic traps “pumping oil out is like sucking liquid out of a sponge” Folded impermeable rock Faulted impermeable rock

44 Oil floats on water!

5 5 Similar to CS Fig

6 What it has taken the Earth millions of years to form, we will use up in <1,000 years

7 That pesky second law of thermodynamics!  1/2 of all the energy in primary fuels is lost during conversion to useable forms  2/3 of energy in coal is lost in power plant conversion to electricity  3/4 of energy in crude oil is lost by the time you finish burning it as gas in your car

8 One gallon of gasoline  Contains ~6 pounds of C  When it burns, the C combines with O to make ~ 20 pounds of CO 2  Took about 196,000 pounds of ancient biomass to make  About the same as in 1 acre of wheat  Since 1751, our species has used the equivalent from all types of fossil fuels of about 13,300 years of biomass production by all plants on earth. Source:

9

10 Figure 19_02 CS Fig. 19.2

11 Table 19_01

12 Table 19_02

13 Global energy sources CS Fig. 19.3

14 US energy consumption 2010 CS Fig. 19.4

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16 60% of oil imported

17 US Energy Flow % of oil imported

18 US Oil supply  61.2% imported  Middle East oil 3 rd  Canadian oil from tar sands

19 US Oil imports

20 U.S. Is Producing More and Using Less Oil  Analysts also point out that the U.S. is producing more oil domestically while reducing its dependence on oil in general.  The recent recession and the slow economic recovery have dampened demand for oil products. But "the big story is that the U.S. has really expanded production over the past several years," says Crane, citing the production of oil from shale in North Dakota and other states.  The country has also become more energy efficient, building cars with better gas mileage and shifting away from oil-based energy.  "Whereas the U.S. has been the biggest consumer of oil products in the world, the role of oil is smaller than it was in the '70s, and even than it was in the '90s," Crane says.  But the U.S. still spends huge sums on oil because the rise in world prices has more than made up for the drop in U.S. imports.  "Five years ago, we were importing 10 million barrels a day, but at $50 a barrel," says Rapier. "Now we're at 8.4 million barrels, but at prices over $100 a barrel." Source: National Public Radio

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22 Demographics of Energy Use  The 20 richest countries consume  80% of natural gas  65% of oil  50% of coal  US and Canada have 5% of world population, use 25% of available energy  Each person in US and Canada uses 60 barrels of oil per year – more than an Ethiopian would use in a lifetime  Developed countries that import a large proportion of their fuel have better conservation methods

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24

HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? 25

26 Proven Oil Reserves CS Fig 19.13

27 CS Fig

The End of Cheap Oil Campbell and Laherrere Scientific American, 1998 On Reserve in Library (Preventing the next oil crunch) 28

29 Early steady growth in US oil production C & L, p. 78

30 What oil companies would have you believe  1,020 billion barrels of oil in reserve that will be just as cheap as it is today (that is, as it was in 1998)  Production can continue at 1998 levels or higher for many decades to come

31 What Campbell and Laherrere would have you believe  Production will not remain constant for very long  The last bucket of oil is not as easy to remove as the first

32 Hubbert Curve  Flow of oil starts to fall when ~1/2 of crude oil is gone  In 1956, M. King Hubbert of Shell Oil used this curve to successfully predict US peak in production in 1970 C & L, p. 80

33 Global discovery peaked in 1960 Industry has found 90% of oil that exists C & L, p. 82

34 All US Oil fields Finite Resource!

35 All US Oil fields Slope of curve in Previous figure Data Hubbert had available Data after Hubbert’s prediction Price Wells drilled

36 Expenses in US oil exploration Return on investment

37 How long will it last? Perhaps more importantly, when will it become expensive?! C & L, p. 81 Similar to Fig

38 World Oil Production, real and projected as of

39 Major conclusions  US oil production peaked in 1970  Norway has already peaked  World production will peak this decade!  By 2002, Mid-East will have control over major part of supply

40 Oil will get (stay) expensive!  1,150 billion barrels left*  At current rate, 30 billion barrels/year*, will last ~40 years  However, will start to decline in production within 5 years, so will last longer, but at reduced level  Oil shales and tar sands may help ease pain, but will have environmental consequences  3/canadian-oil-sands/essick-photography 3/canadian-oil-sands/essick-photography *Statistics from US Dept of Energy

41 Oil Drum.com  (Bloomberg) -- Boone Pickens, a billionaire energy investor, said world oil supply won't exceed 85 million barrels a day because of high depletion rates of existing wells. Pickens, 79, the founder and chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, said today in a speech at Georgetown University, that the price of crude oil will only continue to climb and demand will eventually be dampened.  ``There is only 85 million barrels of oil globally in the market coming a day and I don't think you can increase that 85 million,'' Pickens said. April 2008

42 World Oil Consumption and Production, 2001, 2010, and 2025 US DOE Annual Energy Outlook 2005

43 "The fundamental driver of the 20 th Century's economic prosperity has been an abundant supply of cheap oil.... Middle East share... is now about 30%. Unlike in the 1970s, this time it is set to continue to rise.... Share will likely reach 35% by 2002 and 50% by By then, the Middle East too will be close to its depletion midpoint, and unable to sustain production much longer irrespective of investment or desire." C. J. Campbell Oil and Gas Journal, March 20, 2000

44 The USGS estimates that economically recoverable oil is just 152 days of supply

45 ANWAR

46 US Oil  “Drill Baby Drill”?  120 billion barrels of oil left in US, but only 21 are proven in-place  This would last 4 years!

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