THE STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS DIVISION OF FTI CONSULTING Heartland Monitor Poll IX

Methodology This is the ninth quarterly installment of Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Polls conducted by Ed Reilly and Brent McGoldrick of FD. The survey fielded between May 18-22, 2011 among: –A nationally representative sample of 1,000 American adults age 18 and older contacted via landline and cell phone. Margin of error +/- 3.1%. –With oversamples of African-Americans, N = 305, MoE = +/-5.6%; –Hispanics N = 304, MoE = +/-5.6%; and –Asians N = 110, MoE = +/-9.3%. –Total Interviews N=1,427 2

Attitudes about Race and Ethnicity Americans believe the country has made progress in providing equal opportunity to people of all backgrounds and they believe that income and partisanship are more divisive than race and ethnicity.

4 Americans believe the U.S. has been doing better in providing equal opportunity to people of all races. In general, in the last ten years, do you believe that the United States is doing better, worse or about the same at providing equal opportunity for people of all races… Doing Better / Doing Worse

5 Americans believe the U.S. has been doing better in providing opportunity to all Americans regardless of race. And, compared to when you were younger, do you believe that the United States provides more opportunity for people of all races, less opportunity, or about the same amount of opportunity? More Opportunity / Less Opportunity

Americans of all backgrounds believe that disagreements in this country are driven more by economics than by political, cultural, generational, ethnic/racial, or religious differences. Contributors to Disagreements on Important issues Mean Scores, 0 = “Contributes Nothing at All” / 10 = “Contributes a “Great Deal” ECONOMIC DIFFERENCES between the rich and poor POLITICAL DIFFERENCES between people who support different parties CULTURAL DIFFERENCES between people born in this country and immigrants GENERATIONAL DIFFERENCES between young and old ETHNIC AND RACIAL DIFFERENCES between people of different backgrounds RELIGIOUS DIFFERENCES between people of various faiths Hispanic: 6.6 AA/Black: Top rated by all groups

Perceptions of Opportunity in America Americans believe that education and their own skills determine opportunity much more than race or ethnicity.

8 Education is seen as the biggest driver of opportunity, with people of color most likely to cite education. Very few believe race or ethnicity is a major factor. Which factor plays the biggest role in determining opportunity to get ahead in the U.S.? Education Economy Own skills

9 Whites do not share the strong belief among people of color that they have more opportunity to get ahead than their parents did. And, compared to your parents do you have… More / Less Opportunity Self vs. Parents ALL WHITES

10 African-Americans and Hispanics are considerably more likely than Whites and Asians to believe the next generation will have more opportunity. Thinking ahead to when today’s children are your age, do you think they will have… More / Less Opportunity for Kids ALL WHITES

11 Americans largely trust the free market to create opportunities. African- Americans are split on the issue. And, there is a big partisan difference. Left to itself the free market economy creates more problems than opportunities because it creates too much inequality and leaves too many people in poverty. Left to itself the free market economy creates more opportunities than problems because it provides the most effective way to create economic growth and allow people to rise as far as their talent and hard work will take them. Opportunities Probs Which of the following statements do you agree with more?

Views on the Economy and Government Americans believe that the free market system works to create opportunity and their views on the government’s role in the economy are driven more defined by partisanship than by ethnicity.

13 Questions around the effectiveness of the role of government are significant. And, Whites are less likely to want an active government. Proper Role of Government in the Economy Government must play an active role to ensure that the economy benefits people like me. Government should play an active role in the economy to ensure it benefits people like me, but I am not sure that I can trust government to do this effectively. Government is not the solution to our economic problems; government is the problem. Government must play an active role in regulating the marketplace and ensuring that the economy benefits people like me. Government is not the solution to our economic problems; government is the problem. I would like to see government play an active role in the economy to ensure it benefits people like me, BUT I am not sure that I can trust government to do this effectively. Active Role Active / Not Sure Prob- lem

14 We see this dynamic play out with people of color voicing stronger support for an active government economic agenda. Government Agenda For Creating Opportunity A government agenda focused on cutting taxes, reducing regulation of business, and helping people start their own businesses. A government agenda focused on investment in education and training, infrastructure projects like roads, and scientific research into areas like alternative energy. Investment Cuts

Response to Population Trends There is considerable anxiety about what the changing population profile means for this country.

The 2010 Census shows that the U.S. population grew nearly 10% since 2000, with more than half of that growth coming from the country’s Hispanic population. Ethnic or racial minorities now comprise more than one-third of the American population, including nearly half of the population of Americans younger than 18. And the growth in the nation’s white population has been slower than nearly all other groups. It has been estimated that this trend will result in minorities outnumbering whites in the US by the year Given some background on population trends in the United States… 16

. Thinking about these population changes, which of the following statements do you agree with more? 17 troubling too quickly fundamental changes character values unemployment poverty These trends are troubling because the population change in this country is happening too quickly and causing fundamental changes to the character and values of the U.S at a time when the country is already faced with high unemployment and many Americans are living at or below the poverty line. continue American tradition welcoming people better life Immigrantminority shaped American societycontributed land of opportunity These trends continue the American tradition of welcoming people of all backgrounds to come to this country and make a better life for their family. Immigrant and minority populations have always shaped American society and have contributed to America’s position as the world’s biggest economy and the land of opportunity. Half of Americans say the populations trends are troubling, outnumbering those who say the trends are part of the American tradition.

18 Majorities of Whites and African-Americans see these trends as troubling, while Hispanics and Asians tend to see them as an American tradition. Continue Tradition Troubling

19 A plurality of Americans believes that population changes are being driven mostly by illegal immigration. Which do you believe is the biggest factor contributing to this increase in the minority population? Legal Immigration Illegal Immigration Higher Birth Rates Illegal Immigration

20 Americans agree that the changing population will bring several changes – both positive and negative. How likely do you think it is to happen as a result of the population changes we’ve been discussing? Total Likely Race Relations Economic Impact Cultural Impact Increased success for minority-owned businesses A more diverse workforce with unique skills More income inequality Fewer skilled workers for the American economy A richer cultural experience for all Americans Fewer people who uphold traditional American values Fewer people who uphold America’s cultural heritage More racial intolerance and tension More racial tolerance and mixed marriages

Mood of the Country Americans still believe the country is headed off on the wrong track, but the President’s numbers have rebounded and Americans believe the economy will improve.

22 White Americans are much more pessimistic about the direction of the country than non-Whites. And, to start with, do you feel that THE COUNTRY, in general, is headed in the right direction, or do you think things are seriously off on the wrong track? Wrong Track Right Direction

23 President Obama’s approval rating has bounced back, but Whites as a group still disapprove of him. And, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Disapprove Approve

24 Americans believe the country’s economy will improve over the next 12 months. And, in general, over the next 12 months, do you think the economy, overall will… WorsenImprove 61% 32% Improve / Worsen