Spy v. Spy: Espionage, 1947-Present Dr. David R Smith Ohio Northern University

Introduction The United States government includes a large number of officials who require foreign and domestic security intelligence to perform their duties. Only if those officials are sufficiently informed about the state of the world and the likely consequences of various policies and actions can they be expected to make sound decisions.

The Ten Biggest American Intelligence Failures 1.Pearl Harbor Attack The Bay of Pigs Invasion The Tet Offensive The Yom Kippur War The Iranian Revolution The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan The Collapse of the Soviet Union The Indian Nuclear Test The 9/11 Attacks The Iraq War 2003

Other consequences of poor intelligence - U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade 1999 attacks of Sept 11, 2001, and the continued designs of al-Qaeda, failure of US forces to find stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq after the 2003 invasion and the insurgency that has followed, difficulties involved in trying to halt the North Korean and Iranian nuclear weapons programs, and the North Korean missile launches during the summer of 2006

Introduction This course provides a comprehensive and detailed overview of the US intelligence community a description of its collection and analysis organizations, the activities of those organizations, and the management structure that is responsible for directing and supervising those organizations and activities

Intelligence? The product resulting from the: Collection, (open source, clandestine, Humint, technical) Processing, Integration, Analysis, (transfer raw intelligence  finished) Evaluation, & Interpretation of available information concerning foreign entities, like: Foreign governments, Groups (terrorist), or Areas

Intelligence? Intelligence activities only involve:  Collection and analysis and transform  “intelligence”  Counterintelligence  Assess foreign security services & neutralize them  Denial and deception operations Keeping activity secret!  Covert Action (s)  operation designed to influence foreign governments, persons, or events in support of sponsoring governments foreign policy objectives Keeping sponsorship secret! Types: 1.Black propaganda 2.Grey propaganda 3.Paramilitary or political actions designed to overthrow/undermine attempt to get advanced weaponry 4.Support of individuals or organizations 5.Economic operations 6.Disinformation 7.Targeted killings

Why have intelligence agencies? 1.To avoid strategic surprise: Endanger a nation’s existence (vs. tactical surprise) 2.To provide long-term expertise Senior policy-makers are transients Stability greater in intelligence agencies vs state or defense departments Fewer political appointees 3.To support policy process Need tailored, timely information

The Intelligence Cycle Relate intelligence collection & analysis to needs of decision makers & to use made of intelligence product Process by which information is: Acquired Converted into finished intelligence, & Made available to policy makers Five steps: 1.Planning and direction 2.Collection 3.Processing 4.Analysis & production 5.Dissemination

The Intelligence Cycle A.Planning and direction Management of entire intelligence effort: ID need for data to final delivery Begin with request & requirement for information So everyone knows automatically what to collect B.Collection Gathering of raw data C.Processing Convert information to form suitable for finished intelligence Interpret & measurement of Images & signals Language translation Decryption Sort by subject matter & Data reduction

The Intelligence Cycle D.Analysis and production Conversion of basic intelligence to finished intelligence Integration Evaluation Analysis of all available data Raw intelligence is often fragmentary & contradictory Specialists are required to give it meaning and significance E.Dissemination Distribution of finished intelligence to consumer Policymakers and operators whose needs triggered the process

The Intelligence Cycle  Policymakers do not (usually) specify particular items of information to be collected  May require reports on Chinese strategic forces or political situation in Israel  Collectors determine how to obtain information  Decision makers in midst of crisis may only want processed data instead of fully analyzed data Cuban missile crisis?  Most important intelligence was purely factual reporting

Types of Intelligence  Political, military, scientific & technical, economic, sociological 1.Political: foreign and domestic politics  Foreign policy of other nations: support or opposition to US on things like ME, Iran, North Korea  Domestic: most conflicts in world today 2.Military Capabilities of potential adversaries? Need/impact of military hardware sales? Assess balance of power between pairs of nations 3.Scientific/technical Civilian & military related: computer tech., bio-tech., lasers (dual-use technologies) Atomic energy activities

Types of Intelligence 3.Economic:  Strength and vulnerabilities of a nation’s economy (economic sanctions work?)  Pricing of key resources: oil, gas, minerals 4.Sociological: Civilian & military related: computer tech., bio-tech., lasers (dual-use technologies)