2003 guidance update & 2004 targets Investor Conference Call & Webcast Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 18, 2003.

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Presentation transcript:

2003 guidance update & 2004 targets Investor Conference Call & Webcast Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 18, 2003

2 This presentation and answers to questions contain forward- looking statements about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to risks and uncertainties. TELUS’ actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. For additional information on potential risk factors, see TELUS’ Annual Information Form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada and the United States. TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All dollars in C$ unless otherwise specified. forward-looking statement

consolidated outlook on-track? $1.2 to 1.25BCapex $900M to 1B $0.85 to $0.95 $2.8 to 2.85B $7.1 to 7.2B Oct-03 guidance 1 Free Cash Flow 3 EPS EBITDA 2 Revenue 1 Guidance given on October 31, Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization - excludes est. $25M in restructuring costs 3 EBITDA less: capex, cash interest, cash taxes and cash dividends latest outlook consistent with previous guidance high end

TELUS Communications outlook Oct-03 guidance 1 on-track? Revenue$4.8 to 4.85B Non-ILECapprox. $575M approx. $555M 2 EBITDA$2.025 to 2.05B Non-ILEC 2 approx. ($30M) Capex$850 to 875M high end High-speed net addsapprox. 150K wireline outlook approximates previous guidance 1 Guidance given on October 31, Note: 2003 impact of divestitures - approx. $20M and $6M on revenue and EBITDA, respectively. close / low-end

TELUS Mobility outlook on-track? $350 to 375M Capex approx. 400K $775 to 800M $2.3 to 2.35B Oct-03 guidance 1 wireless net adds EBITDA Revenue wireless outlook at top-end of previous guidance 1 Guidance given on October 31, 2003 high end

TELUS corporate priorities  Delivering operational efficiency  Enhancing wireless performance  Improving Central Canada profitability  Strengthening financial position  Improving levels of customer service  Reaching a collective agreement On track? deferred Feb/04 on-going

7 First Time Trouble Resolution 77% System stabilization 2003 TELUS corporate priorities improving customer service 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% CRTC Standard = 80% Even with staff reduction, service levels improved by 30% Over achieving CRTC standard New trouble management system introduced Natural Disasters (Fires, Floods, Power Outage) Trinity Cable Cut JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Repair answer (611) - % calls answered < 20 sec. Repair Answer Contact Centres 4 to 2 Repair Answer Staff 22%

8 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Operator Services - % calls answered < 20 sec. High volume in other care call centres Forest Fires in BC/AB Even with staff reduction TELUS still over achieved on CRTC standard. CRTC Standard = 80% 2003 TELUS corporate priorities improving customer service Contact Centres 19 to 5 Staff 30% 40% increase in productivity

9  4 of 19 CRTC indicators below standard in September  November results demonstrate strong upward trend  YTD results generally improved compared to TELUS corporate priorities improving customer service Service Indicator2002 Sept 2003 Nov 2003 TrendStandard Access to Business Office72%60%82%80% Urban Out of Service Cleared 24 hrs Rural Out of Service Cleared 24 hrs 75% 67% 64% 68% 72% 71% 80% Urban Repair Appointments Met Rural Repair Appointments Met 90% 85% 84% 75% 91% 78% 90% Access to Repair Bureau78%68%90%80%

10  Process Nov. 14  early Feb  working with federal conciliators  TELUS abiding by info blackout until Jan. 12 (subject to responding, as appropriate, to developments)  next meeting on Jan. 5  TWU announced plan to seek strike mandate in Jan.  Legal work disruption not possible until after Feb TELUS corporate priorities labour relations

2004 priorities & targets

12 key priorities for 2004  Reach collective agreement reflecting competitive dynamics  Ensure sustainment and enhancement of OEP benefits  Preserve and grow brand value by demonstrating superiority in customer service and reliability  Excel in delivery of national deals (e.g. TD Bank)  Drive towards a leadership position in Internet access  Continue to develop building blocks for accelerating growth in IP Solutions  Maintain leadership position in Mobility

13  economic growth consistent with Conference Board of Cda  no workforce disruption  continued softness in wireline demand  high-speed Internet industry sub growth of 15%  wireless penetration growth of 3.5 to 4.0%  $45M of stock compensation expense for stock options & Restricted Share Units (RSUs)  $30M of restr. & workforce reduction costs  average tax rate of ~35%  average shares outstanding 354M 2004 guidance considerations

14 $1.05 to 1.25 EPS implied change target revenue & earnings growth driven by strong wireless performance 2004 consolidated targets – revenue & earnings  7%  5% EBITDA 2 Revenue $2.95 to 3.05B $7.45 to 7.55B 1 Calculated as mid-point estimates for 2003 versus Includes $30M in restructuring & workforce reduction costs ($25M in 2003) and $45M in stock compensation expense for stock options and RSUs, in  28%

15 ~2, ,950 to 3,050 incremental change ~2,800  20  42  217 to Mid-point of 2003 guidance range, excludes restructuring & workforce reduction costs 2003E2004E 2003E adj. growth & productivity price cap equity comp consolidated targets – EBITDA continuity  5  25 restr. costs restr. costs ($M)

16 ~ to 1.25 incremental change ~0.70  0.07  0.05  0.23 to Mid-point of $0.85 to $0.95 guidance range 2003E 2004E 2003E normal. EBITDA growth Dep’n & amort. Financing costs & other 2004 consolidated targets – EPS continuity  ~0.20 Settlement of tax matters in ‘03 ($)

17 ($M) ~$405M ~$315M 2003E2004E net income (implied from mid point EPS) significant and rising net income  29%

18  2% implied change Capex 2004 target approx. $1.225B 2001A E Capex intensity 2 32% ~17% 2002A 24% A capex excludes $356M for spectrum, 37% if included 2 Ratio of capex to total revenues downward trend in capex intensity ratio continues 2004 consolidated targets - capex 2004E ~16%

consolidated targets – free cash flow 2004E ($M) $750 to 850 Cash avail. for net debt & A/R secur. reduction 950 to 1, ~(200) Working capital/other Free Cash Flow (2004 target) ~(180) Cash dividends 105 Net cash tax recovery ~(650) Net cash interest ~(1,225) Capex $2,950 to 3,050 EBITDA (incl. rest. & workforce reduction costs) Stock compensation (non-cash portion) ~(85) Cash restructuring pmts (in excess of 2004 expense) 1,000 to 1,100 Free Cash Flow (2003 target methodology)

20 <2.5x in Dec ’04 <2.7x3.3x3.4xNet Debt : EBITDA 1,2 56.6% 2002 ~53% 2003E Net Debt : Capital 1 new targets to 50% long-term 55.5% revised leverage policy targets reflect even greater leverage drop than previously expected 2004 consolidated targets – leverage <2.2x long-term net debt reflects the adoption of new accounting rules for the classification of convertible debentures as debt EBITDA inclusive of restructuring & workforce reduction costs and stock compensation

21 (26) 1, ~1, E2004E TELUS BCE TELUS vs. BCE free cash flow 1 TELUS generating similar FCF as Bell on ~1/3 of the revenue, implying superior TELUS yield 1 EBITDA excluding restructuring, less: capex, cash interest, cash taxes and cash dividends Source: Midpoints of TELUS' 2003E and 2004E guidance. Analyst estimates for 2003 & 2004 BCE. Incl. Bell West put ~1,300 ($M)

% (1.1) (2.3) (2.4) (4.7) (12.6) TELUSFTBCEMTSTelstraDTNipponBTBLSAliantKPN global telecom performance As at December 10, 2003 Notes: TELUS data based on midpoint of 2003 guidance & 2004 targets Other 2003 & 2004 estimates provided by Bloomberg and analyst reports SprintTelia VZSBC projected 2004E Cash Flow (EBITDA - Capex) % growth rates AT&T

23  1% - implied change EBITDA 1 Revenue 2004 target $1.975 to 2.025B $4.8 to 4.85B operational efficiencies offsets include share compensation and price cap impact 2004 Communications segment revenue & EBITDA targets 1 Includes ~$30M in restructuring & workforce reduction costs

24  10%approx. $610M Non-ILEC revenue implied change 2004 target continued non-ILEC growth in Central Canada focused on data and IP in the business market 2004 Communications segment non-ILEC targets 527 ~ A2002A2003E ~ E ($M) 1 Adjusted to reflect $20M revenue impact of divestitures

25  $35Mapprox. $5MNon-ILEC EBITDA implied change 2004 target non-ILEC to achieve positive EBITDA in Communications segment non-ILEC targets ~(30) (146) (107) 2001A 2002A2003E 2004E ~5 ($M)

26 ~$900M ~$840M ~$145M ~$115M 2003E2004E Revenue EBITDA Central Canadian wireline operations 1 TELUS ILEC & non-ILEC operations in Ont. & Que. generating profitable growth 1 Includes TELUS Quebec & non-ILEC operations

27  1%$1.1 to 1.15BEBITDA - Capex -approx. $875MCapex implied change2004 target capex intensity being maintained below 20% 2004 Communications segment capex targets 30% 2001A2002A2003E 2004E 24% ~18% Capex intensity 1 1 Ratio of capex to total revenues

~ A 2003E 2001A ~150 Subscriber base Net additions (000s) 125K target reflects reduced market growth & majority share of net adds 2004 Communications segment high-speed Internet net additions targets ~125 ~ E

29  15% implied change Revenue 2004 target $2.65 to 2.7B revenue growth driven by continued strong subscriber growth & premium ARPU 2004 Mobility segment revenue targets

30 (000s) wireless subscriber base growth of 11 to 12% 2004 Mobility segment subscriber net additions targets 2,996 2, ~400 ~3,395 Subscriber base Net additions 2002A 2003E 2001A 2004E ~3,770 to 3, to 425

31  27% $975M to 1.025BEBITDA  15% implied change Revenue 2004 target $2.65 to 2.7B significant EBITDA growth driven by strong revenue growth and disciplined cost containment 2004 Mobility segment EBITDA targets

32 North American wireless comparison 2004E EBITDA Growth Source: Bloomberg & analyst reports, except TELUS (midpoint of 2004 targets) 27% TELUS Mobility CDN AvgBell Mobility NextelVerizon Wireless Sprint PCSRogers Wireless US AvgAT&T Wireless Cingular

33 North American wireless comparison 2004E EBITDA Margins (%) Source: Bloomberg & analyst reports, except TELUS (midpoint of 2004 targets) 39% NextelBCE Wireless TELUS Mobility CDN AvgVerizon Wireless Rogers Wireless US AvgCingularSprint PCSAT&T Wireless

34  58%$625 to 675MEBITDA - Capex  7%approx. $350MCapex implied change2004 target substantial cash flow generation from strong EBITDA growth and continued capex discipline 2004 Mobility segment capex targets 2001A A2003E 2004E 34% 23% ~16% ~13% Capex intensity 1 1 Ratio of capex to total revenues 2 Excludes $356M for spectrum

35 Source: Bloomberg & analyst reports, except TELUS (midpoint of 2004 targets) North American wireless comparison 2004E capex intensity (%) 18% Verizon Wireless CingularRogers Wireless US AvgAT&T Wireless Sprint PCSCDN AvgNextelTELUS Mobility

36 1 EBITDA less capex divided by total revenue Source: Bloomberg & analyst reports, except TELUS (midpoint of 2004 targets) North American wireless comparison 2004E cash flow yield 1 (%) 24% Nextel US AvgVerizon Wireless Rogers Wireless CDN AvgSprint PCSAT&T Wireless Cingular TELUS Mobility

37  2%approx. $1.225BCapex  28%$1.05 to 1.25EPS  7% implied change EBITDA 1 Revenue 2004 targets $2.95 to 3.05B $7.45 to 7.55B 2004 targets reflect strong earning & cash flow growth 2004 consolidated targets summary 1 Includes ~$30M in restructuring & workforce reduction costs 2 EBITDA less: capex, cash interest, cash taxes, cash dividends, cash restructuring & stock compensation  56%Free Cash Flow 2 $950M to 1.05B  5%

38  2003 outlook for earnings and cash flow on-track  2004 targets reflect:  healthy wireless & high-speed Internet subscriber expansion  good EBITDA growth despite negative accounting & regulatory impacts  strong EPS growth  global telecom-leading cash flow growth  new leverage policy targets & continued strong leverage reduction summary

questions?

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