Susan Mays, Ph.D., contact Globex Faculty Fellow, Peking University; Faculty, The University of Texas at Austin China’s.

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Susan Mays, Ph.D., contact Globex Faculty Fellow, Peking University; Faculty, The University of Texas at Austin China’s Economy: Growth and Global Connections July 2015 Family economics and consumer spending 北京大学工学院 PKU College of Engineering Globex

2 Agenda July 13…starting week 2! 2. State sector (finish) 1. 4 student presentations 3.Lecture: family, health, and education 1. Attendance and return midterms

3 Elder care: anticipated sources of elder support in urban areas, 2011 Savings,” 2014 Taha Choukhmane, et.al., “The One Child Policy and Household Savings,” 2014.

4 Elder care: co-residence and RMB transfers by parents’ age Taha Choukhmane, et.al., “The One Child Policy and Household Savings,” 2014, section 2.1.

5 Family Structure: fertility in Chinese urban areas Taha Choukhmane, et.al., “The One Child Policy and Household Savings,” 2014, section 2.1.

6 Education: expenditures by child’s age as a percent of total family expenditures in urban areas Taha Choukhmane, et.al., “The One Child Policy and Household Savings,” 2014, section 2.1.

7 Elder care: anticipated sources of elder support in urban areas, 2011 Savings,” 2014 Taha Choukhmane, et.al., “The One Child Policy and Household Savings,” 2014.

8 Family Structure: share of elderly & children (“dependents”) Carl Bonham and Calla Weimer, “Chinese Savings Dynamics,” Oxford Economic Papers 65, 2013, page 183.

9 Incomes have increased substantially, but inequality has increased, and income growth has not matched GDP growth (1)National Bureau of Statistics China; People’s Daily; tradingeconomics.com; data trend combines rural and urban averages. (2)IMF; World Bank; CIA; over 600 million internet users; RMB up 30% since 2005; over 270mm rural migrant workers in cities; migrant worker income tends be between rural and urban averages. Annual Disposable Income Per Capita 1 Urban Income ~ 3x Rural Latest Data 2013: Urban: Y29,945 = ~US$4,325 Rural: Y8,896 = ~US$1,428

10 Increases in income inequality Shi Li, “Issues and Options for Social Security Reform in China,” China’s Social Development Policy, 2013, page 52, from Zhang, editor, Annual Report of Household Income Distribution in China, Gini Coefficients, Rural and Urban Blue: rural Gini Orange: urban Gini.47 in 2012 is a combined rural/urban estimate