Claire Ferguson 1, Adrian Bowman 1, Marian Scott 1 and Laurence Carvalho 2 1 University of Glasgow 2 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology A Case Study of Loch.

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Presentation transcript:

Claire Ferguson 1, Adrian Bowman 1, Marian Scott 1 and Laurence Carvalho 2 1 University of Glasgow 2 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology A Case Study of Loch Leven Regression Case Study Additive and Varying-Coefficient Models

Dataset: variables measured, covering… Physics Lake chemistry Lake biology Weather Loch Leven (LL)

Loch Leven – The Data

The EC Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000 states that there should be good status in all shallow waters by Research: Investigating statistical techniques to explore the combined impacts of climate and nutrients on water quality. Motivation

chlorophyll a Response year, month, SRP, Daphnia, water temp, NO 3 -N Covariates Additive Model

Chlorophyll

Mainly linear relationships between variables. Little evidence of trend and seasonality. Important ecological relationships identified. The nature of trends and relationships can be explored simultaneously. For chlorophyll a (in this time period)- Summary of Additive Models

Linear Regression Model Varying-coefficient Model (VCM) Varying-coefficient Model m = month Do relationships change throughout the year?

VCM LL Case Study