C LI PD A R -- D ESIGN GUIDELINE FOR A C LIMATE P ROJECTION D ATA BASE AND SPECIFIC CLIMATE INDICES FOR R OADS CEDR Transnational Road Research Programme Call 2012 Road owners adapting to Climate Change C HRISTOPH M ATULLA a, J OACHIM N AMYSLO b, K ONRAD A NDRE a, B ARBARA C HIMANI a, T OBIAS F UCHS b, B RIGITTA H OLLOSI a a Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria b German National Meteorological Service, Germany Transport Research Arena, Paris, 14‒17 April 2014

T HE C LI PD A R PROJECT CEDR Transnational Road Research Programme Call 2012: “Road owners adapting to Climate Change” February 2013 – April 2014 Consortium:  Coordinator: German National Meteorological Service, DWD, Germany Project Manager: Joachim Namyslo (DWD), Germany  Partner: Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, ZAMG, Austria Project budget: € CliPDaR deliverables guideline conferences peer-reviewed paper oral presentation CliPDaR provided six deliverables and one guideline to the CEDR and was presented at a number of international/national conferences. Besides, it contributes a peer-reviewed paper and an oral presentation at TRA /14

CliPDaR road authorities planningreinforcement maintenance estimating future damage risks The mission of CliPDaR is to provide road authorities with a guideline supporting decision making regarding the planning, reinforcement and maintenance of transport infrastructure. CliPDaR identifies climate phenomena potentially harming transport assets and helps estimating future damage risks. B ACKGROUND 3/14

T HE C AUSE -E FFECT -T ENSOR climate indices Relationships between climate (climate indices, CIs) and road infrastructure elements are of central importance. An objective way to isolate CIs is to analyze the functional dependency between time series of damages and climatological variables. Much is known from the literature. precipitation  Extreme precipitation can cause Road structure collapse Sewer system fills up, water flows on street level Danger to coastal road transportation Rainfall-induced landslides Low visibility (safety) temperature  Extreme temperature can cause Buckling of road surface Rutting of pavement Thermal expansion on bridge expansion joints Increased frequencies of freeze-thaw cycles result deterioration of road pavements 4/14

M ETHODS CliPDaR The CliPDaR process step by step: scenario i. Selection of a socio-economic scenario. gas-cycle models ii. Scenarios are translated via gas-cycle models into concentrations, forcing the climate system via the radiation transfer in the atmosphere. GCM iii. Drive GCMs with the temporal development of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, but constant external radiative forcings. Downscaling iv. Downscaling: take information known at large scales to derive local scale projections. impacts v. Assessment of possible impacts that mankind may exert on ecosystems or economic structures. Anticipating vi. Anticipating the effects of climate change and minimize the damage they can cause. 5/14

D ATA Regional scale past and climate change projections (KLIWAS17 ensemble)  A1B emission scenario (estimated CO 2 level by 2100 is 717 ppm) daily values  Based on Regional Climate Model projections providing daily values of mean temperature, precipitation sum, relative humidity and sum of global radiation 5-km-grid bias-corrected  These climate variables are statistically downscaled to a 5-km-grid and bias-corrected. Continental scale past and climate change projections  A1B and A2 emission scenario (A2 estimated CO 2 level by 2100 is 856 ppm) EOF approach  Based on Global Model projections providing values of 850hPa temperature and via an EOF approach compared to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. 6/14

R ESULTS – P OSSIBLE FUTURE OF COLD WINTERS IN F ENNOSCANDIA cold Select the coldest past seasons ↓ Apply an EOF analysis ↓ Calculate the first future time coefficient ↓ Compare the near and the far future to the past appearance of the first EOF 7/14

R ESULTS – P OSSIBLE FUTURE OF FROST DAYS IN C ENTRAL E UROPE N EAR FUTURE F AR FUTURE Frost days (T min <0°C):  Compare the near (2021‒2050) and the far (2071‒2100) future to reference period (1961‒1990) conditions 8/14

R ESULTS – P OSSIBLE FUTURE OF SUMMER DAYS IN C ENTRAL E UROPE N EAR FUTURE F AR FUTURE Summer days (T max ≥25°C):  Compare the near (2021‒2050) and the far (2071‒2100) future to reference period (1961‒1990) conditions 9/14

R ESULTS – P OSSIBLE FUTURE OF RUTTING DAYS IN C ENTRAL E UROPE N EAR FUTURE F AR FUTURE Potential rutting days:  T max ≥30°C and T night, min >20°C  Compare the near (2021‒2050) and the far (2071‒2100) future to reference period (1961‒1990) conditions 10/14

R ESULTS – P OSSIBLE FUTURE OF „ LANDSLIDE “ DAYS IN C ENTRAL E UROPE N EAR FUTURE F AR FUTURE Potential landslide days :  P day >25.6mm and P 3day >37.3mm  Compare the near (2021‒2050) and the far (2071‒2100) future to reference period (1961‒1990) conditions 11/14

S UMMARY vulnerable Road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena (socio-economic consequences) impacts Essential to know the impacts of global climate change on road network Climate Indices This is achieved through ensembles of climate change projections and the use of Climate Indices (CIs), describing changes in transport damage risks Extreme icehot days change less compared to frostsummer days Extreme index days as ice days and hot days will probably change less compared to not-so-extreme index days as frost days and summer days 12/14 increases temperatures precipitation Potential increases in the risk of damages related to very high and very low temperatures and to extreme precipitation events:  Rutting days (and blow ups)  Landslides

O UTLOOK region Enlarge the region stepwise by consistently including further European countries scenarios Use new scenarios (RCPs of EURO-CORDEX) datasets Avoid the mixing of datasets (“the political border problem”) quality Ensure highest quality of data – no breaks along borders airrailway transport Include air traffic and railway transport further CIs Expand the analysis to further CIs  damage of bridges and tunnels  road structures collapse  water to street level  collision risks in transport  thermal expansion on bridge expansion joints A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS 13/14

T HANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! ‒ The CliPDaR team ‒ 14/14