23 August 2010 Annual Report 1 Annual Report PMP on Mitigation of Terrorist Acts (MTA) 23 August 2010 Erice, Sicily ** Remove underscores. Too cluttered **

23 August Annual Report Background Established in 2004 Established in 2004 Focus: Focus: Understanding evolving CBRN threats. Understanding evolving CBRN threats. Identification of mitigation measures. Identification of mitigation measures. Recommending actions that can be taken by governments and individuals to limit the effects of terrorist events. Recommending actions that can be taken by governments and individuals to limit the effects of terrorist events. Expert participation has evolved. Expert participation has evolved. ** remove underscores and excessive capitalization **

23 August Annual Report Threat/Risk ** Remove underscores ** Terrorist are watching, listening and observing our activities. Terrorist are watching, listening and observing our activities. Identify gaps. ** Parallel construction ** Identify gaps. ** Parallel construction ** Exploit with high probability of success. Exploit with high probability of success. Terrorists are capable of working within our decision cycle, which is a significant concern. Terrorists are capable of working within our decision cycle, which is a significant concern. Threat of terrorist acts has resulted in significant reallocation of economic assets (negative to economic growth). Threat of terrorist acts has resulted in significant reallocation of economic assets (negative to economic growth).

23 August Annual Report Threat/Risk (cont) Note: It is easier to obtain the materiel, construct and employ a WMD device in lesser developed nations. Note: It is easier to obtain the materiel, construct and employ a WMD device in lesser developed nations. Weaker security measures. Weaker security measures. Weaker national command and control. Weaker national command and control. Greater threat of terrorist activity. Greater threat of terrorist activity. Weaker political stability. Weaker political stability. Reduced logistics. **means what?** Reduced logistics. **means what?**

23 August Annual Report PMP-MTA Roadmap Understand fundamental science associated with CBRN threats and associated mitigation measures. Understand fundamental science associated with CBRN threats and associated mitigation measures. Identify future terrorist asymmetrical threats. Identify future terrorist asymmetrical threats. Unconventional agents (synthetics, genetically modified). Unconventional agents (synthetics, genetically modified). Unique innovative applications. Unique innovative applications. Multiple potential outcomes (Domino effects). Multiple potential outcomes (Domino effects). Lack of models, inadequate verification of existing models and predictability of effects. Lack of models, inadequate verification of existing models and predictability of effects. Terrorists are generally well educated and are employing tried and proven techniques in innovative ways to achieve their desired results (e.g., 9/11, Madrid ). Terrorists are generally well educated and are employing tried and proven techniques in innovative ways to achieve their desired results (e.g., 9/11, Madrid ).

23 August Annual Report Mitigation of Gaps Requires inter-disciplinary approach to mitigate (C, B, R, N). Requires inter-disciplinary approach to mitigate (C, B, R, N). Must work and think innovatively in lieu of bureaucratically. Must work and think innovatively in lieu of bureaucratically. Involve students, science fiction and thriller writers, other creative thinkers. Involve students, science fiction and thriller writers, other creative thinkers. Mix of science and technology applications. Mix of science and technology applications. In general, include “non-expert” to get different perspectives and fresh ideas. In general, include “non-expert” to get different perspectives and fresh ideas. 3-D computer modeling of scenarios/impacts. 3-D computer modeling of scenarios/impacts.

23 August Annual Report Implementing Technologies Implementing technology exists today. Implementing technology exists today. Emergency response to major attacks has shown severe deficits in industrialized and developing countries alike. Emergency response to major attacks has shown severe deficits in industrialized and developing countries alike. National and political will to implement solution sets are generally limited, take time and are expensive. National and political will to implement solution sets are generally limited, take time and are expensive. No national or regional communications architecture exists today, much less inter-connectivity and interoperability to inform a worried public. No national or regional communications architecture exists today, much less inter-connectivity and interoperability to inform a worried public. Critical to retaining political control/mitigation. Critical to retaining political control/mitigation. Cyber security must be taken into account. Cyber security must be taken into account.

23 August Annual Report Organizing for Success Build a wider multi-disciplinary team. Build a wider multi-disciplinary team. Consider multiple meetings a year at politically neutral locations. Consider multiple meetings a year at politically neutral locations. Investigate outreach to existing regional organizations (e.g. NATO). Investigate outreach to existing regional organizations (e.g. NATO). Potential opportunity to act as scientific advisor/knowledge base. Potential opportunity to act as scientific advisor/knowledge base. Involve more nations than NATO at 28. Involve more nations than NATO at 28.

23 August Annual Report Organizing for Success (cont) “Science in Diplomacy: Science can provide advice to inform and support foreign policy objectives. “Science in Diplomacy: Science can provide advice to inform and support foreign policy objectives. Diplomacy for Science: Diplomacy can facilitate international scientific cooperation. Diplomacy for Science: Diplomacy can facilitate international scientific cooperation. Science for Diplomacy: Scientific cooperation can improve international relations.” Science for Diplomacy: Scientific cooperation can improve international relations.” Ref: The Royal Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, New Frontiers in Science Diplomacy, January 2010.

23 August Annual Report The Way Ahead Build stronger and broader multi-disciplinary (physicists, biologists, political scientists, psychologist, socialists, etc.) scientific team focused on mitigating the primary consequences of terrorists acts. Build stronger and broader multi-disciplinary (physicists, biologists, political scientists, psychologist, socialists, etc.) scientific team focused on mitigating the primary consequences of terrorists acts. Within the WFS. Within the WFS. Out-reach to and working with non-WFS agencies. Out-reach to and working with non-WFS agencies. Communications. Communications. Architecture/cyber security development. Architecture/cyber security development. Establish PMP-MTA data repository. Establish PMP-MTA data repository. Scientific: limited, controlled access (Center of Excellence). Scientific: limited, controlled access (Center of Excellence). Public: open access (Wikipedia). Public: open access (Wikipedia).

23 August Annual Report The Way Ahead (cont) Leverage existing national expenditures across CBRN mitigation efforts. Leverage existing national expenditures across CBRN mitigation efforts. Enhance return on investment. Enhance return on investment. Define government and first-responder training requirements. Define government and first-responder training requirements. Validate scenarios and agreed training standards. Validate scenarios and agreed training standards. Identify periodic updating of training program of instruction. Identify periodic updating of training program of instruction.

23 August Annual Report Near Term Execution Focus on and develop meaningful measurable results. Focus on and develop meaningful measurable results. Identify new and evolving threats. Identify new and evolving threats. Define mitigation actions and opportunities. Define mitigation actions and opportunities. Define mitigation communication and training needs. Define mitigation communication and training needs. Expand scientific multi-disciplinary team/network and outreach to existing regional organizations. Expand scientific multi-disciplinary team/network and outreach to existing regional organizations. Establish web-based center of excellence. Establish web-based center of excellence. Face-to-face meetings, approximately two per year. Face-to-face meetings, approximately two per year. Develop supplemental funding sources. Develop supplemental funding sources.

23 August 2010 Annual Report 13 Thank You Comments and/or questions?

23 August 2010 Annual Report 14 Back-Up Charts