Aviation Safety in a changing world FSF MED MAY 2014 Airbus Product Safety Frédéric COMBES Head of Accident / Incident Investigation

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The changing landscape of Aviation… In 1960, 40 aircraft took off every hour. Today, there are 3100 aircraft taking off every hour, that is almost one every second around the world. Page 2

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The changing landscape of Aviation… The number of commercial airlines worldwide increased by 70% over the past 40 years. It doubled in the Indian sub-continent. It more than trippled in China. It was multiplied by 4.5 in CIS. Today, there are more than 2000 commercial airlines around the world Page 3

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The changing landscape of Aviation… The number of airports for commercial aviation worldwide remained virtually unchanged over the past 40 years. In Europe, Japan or the US, 1 runway is built every ten years. In China 82 new airport projects are planned to be started by the end of Page 4

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The changing landscape of Aviation… The fleet of the largest airline is above 700 aircraft. 40% of airlines have a fleet of less than 5 aircraft. Page 5

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The changing landscape of Aviation… In 1970, a « low cost » airline didn’t mean anything Today, 15% of the traffic is performed by low cost airlines worldwide Page 6

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The changing landscape of Aviation… In the 80’s, airlines employed almost exclusively local pilots Today, some airlines employ more than 10 different nationalities of pilots Page 7

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The changing landscape of Aviation… A barrel in current US $ was around 33 $ in 1982, 19 $ in $ in 2002 Today, it is above 100 $ Page 8

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. What will the aeronautical environment look like in the future? Page 9

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 10

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 11

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Airbus fleet – End Feb Page 12 Orders In operations Deliveries

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Airbus fleet – End Feb Page 13 Orders In operations Deliveries

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Ways forward Page 14 MAJOR RISKS Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Ways forward Page 15 MAJOR RISKS Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Fatal accident rate – Dec Page 16 Fatal accident per million departures 1st generation: Early jet 1 st generation All aircraft 3rd generation: Glass-cockpit Nav display FMS 3 rd generation 4th generation: FBW Flight Envelope Protection 4 th generation Years of operation 2nd generation: 2 nd jet generation 2 nd generation Sources: Ascend, Airbus

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Fatal accident rate Fatal accident per million departures 1st generation: Early jet 1 st generation All aircraft 3rd generation: Glass-cockpit Nav display FMS 3 rd generation 4th generation: FBW* Flight Envelope Protection 4 th generation Years of operation 2nd generation: 2 nd jet generation 2 nd generation Sources: Ascend, Airbus *100% of Airbus today production line from A318 to A380 + B777 and B787 What has aviation learned? Automation has brought safety benefits & will continue, Sharing of information is vital, Keeping highest training standards is one of the keys. Page 17

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. High professional standards Page 18 EBT, learning from positive, sharing experience Air Transport: a dynamic complex system with huge variability Need to maintain the highest professional standards One example: evolution of pilot job Pilots are less & less exposed to manual flying conditions Evolution of pilots background Demand for new pilots

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. High professional standards Page 19

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Taking safety for granted Page 20 developing safety awareness and sound SMS Within a context of fast developing countries, buzz society, increasing liability stakes Growing fleet Variability of configurations Variability of configurations Ageing fleet New business models New business models Increased operational Increased operational pressure pressure Evolution of aviation Evolution of aviation professionals professionals Variety of aviation background Evolution of ATM Evolution of ATM New operations (e.g. RNP) New operations (e.g. RNP) Evolution of regulation Evolution of regulation Increased financial pressure Increased financial pressure Increased operational pressure & Increased operational pressure & congestion in some areas congestion in some areas

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Ways forward Page 21 MAJOR RISKS Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The holistic nature of Air Transport System A number of safety initiatives have been launched over the years by the individual actors of the air transport system, eg Flight Envelope Protection Terrain Avoidance Warning Runway Overrun Protection Short Term Conflict Alert …. Page 22 Need for more combined approaches at ATS level RNP deployment program Regional Aviation Groups …

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Ways forward Page 23 MAJOR RISKS Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The variability of operational contexts In many cases ways forward to enhance safety are known, but not implemented, eg Offer alternatives to circling approach Runway design: grooving, safe overrun, Ensure basics are known and understood Ensure implementation of robust Flight Data Monitoring Promote the sharing of information … Page 24 Need for ad hoc approaches Capability to focus on the right things to do first

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Ways forward Page 25 MAJOR RISKS Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. The dynamic nature of the Air Transport System… and its uncertainty Probabilistic approaches allow for anticipating a number of scenarios. Yet, there will always be unprecedented and unanticipated situations… Page 26 From a priori responses…to resilience

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. What’s next Continue to enhance Safety TOGETHER for more anticipation  SMS, Safety Culture, Safety Strategy  Risk Management  « Big data » - identification of trends − At individual organisation level − At a wider scale  Continuous implementation of known Lessons Learnt  Further improving the sharing of Safety information Page 27

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof. AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks. Page 28