NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (  Vision, mission, & roles  Partners & customers  Products & services  Forecast accuracy & value added by HPC forecasters  Major needs  FY09 initiatives Second Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services, and Supporting Research December 10, 2008 Jim Hoke Director, HPC

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 2 HPC’s Vision & Mission  Mission statement: to provide 1) forecast, guidance, and analysis products and services in support of the daily forecasting activities of the NWS and its customers, and 2) tailored weather support to other government agencies in emergency and special situations.  Vision statement: to be recognized by the NWS field offices and other forecast groups as a center of excellence for: –facilitating collaboration –heavy precipitation forecasting –winter weather forecasting –medium-range forecasting –real-time numerical model diagnostics & interpretation –surface analysis

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 3 HPC: a resource to field forecasters, other partners, and customers starting point second opinion focusing mechanism unifying influence emergency backup

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 4 HPC’s Partners & Customers  NWS field offices: WFOs, RFCs, CWSUs  other NCEP centers: TPC, SPC, AWC, OPC, EMC, NCO, CPC  federal agencies: DHS/FEMA, USACE, FAA, NTSB, DoD, NASA, USBR, USAID, USTDA, EPA, White House  state agencies: water resources, flood management, emergency services  media: TV, radio, newspapers, wire services, Internet services  private sector: data vendors, forecast services, utilities, forensics, retailers, researchers  aviation: general aviation and others  academic community: atmospheric sciences and other departments  international: foreign met services, media, civil defense, travelers  general public: analysis & forecast products, visits

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 5 HPC’s Products and Services  quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), excessive rainfall, river flood outlook, and heavy ice & snow guidance  medium-range guidance  model diagnostic discussions & associated graphics tools  surface analyses & Daily Weather Map  basic weather forecasts  So. American & Caribbean prognostic discussions and training

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 6 Examples of HPC’s Emergency & Special Products and Services  Hurricane Liaison Team briefings  Precipitation statements in TPC Public Advisories  Tropical cyclone prediction at days 6 & 7  Backup to NHC’s hurricane program  Special teleconferences for major flooding events  Media interviews & press conferences - Winter storms - Land-falling hurricanes

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 7 HPC QPF verification 1-inch threat score

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 8 HPC QPF verification vs. the models Day 1, 1 inch

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 9 Major Needs  More accurate quantitative precipitation estimation  Denser, more timely and accurate snowfall observations  More accurate numerical model forecasts, especially for precipitation  Better tools for forecasting convective precipitation  More advanced forecaster tools for using ensemble model output  Greater use of precipitation forecaster input into probabilistic river forecast models  Additional forecasters to produce forecasts for Alaska, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Guam, and other OCONUS locations

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 10 Initiatives in FY2009  Probabilistic QPF –Provides a probability distribution for precipitation –Provides likelihood of various precipitation thresholds –Provides indication of confidence  QPF at 6-h intervals at days 4-5  Alaska medium-range desk  HPC Hydrometeorological Testbed

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 11 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (  Vision, mission, & roles  Partners & customers  Products & services  Forecast accuracy & value added by HPC forecasters  Major needs  FY09 initiatives Second Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services, and Supporting Research December 10, 2008 Jim Hoke Director, HPC