1 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 1 Biofuels: is the cure worse than the disease? World Environment Center.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Session 1. Gather practical experience gained with the cultivation of traditional bioenergy crops in the Mediterranean with respect to their environmental.
Advertisements

BIO-HEAT From Small-Scale Bioenergy Systems Roger Samson Resource Efficient Agricultural Production (REAP)-CANADA Box 125 Ste Anne de Bellevue, Quebec.
Can biofuels be sustainable by 2020? Sjaak Conijn.
Land use for bioenergy production – assessing the production potentials and the assumptions of EU bioenergy policy Trends and Future of Sustainable Development.
Water for bioenergy or food, World Water Forum, 19th March 2009 Water for Bioenergy or Food? Topic Introduction Nadine McCormick International Union.
The Controversy with Bio-fuels Energy Economics Advanced Studies in Sustainable Energy Systems Hugo Santos Porto, 20 th October.
Biofuels and Food Security Pavia 23 April What are Biofuels ? Biofuels are fossil fuel substitutes that can be made from a range of agricultural.
The impact of the rebound effect of first generation biofuel use in the EU on greenhouse gas emissions 17 th ICABR Conference, 19 June 2013 Edward Smeets,
2007 Norman E. Borlaug International Symposium “Biofuels and Biofood: The Global Challenges of Emerging Technologies” EU Perspectives Des Moines, October.
Economics of Biofuels Lecture 18 Economics of Food Markets Alan Matthews.
Environmental Issues with Feedstocks for Biofuels and Biochemicals Don O’Connor (S&T) 2 Consultants Inc. SCA Sarnia, June 12, 2012.
A Sustainable Agenda for Biofuel Production and Trade Simonetta Zarrilli United Nations Conference of Trade and Development UNCTAD 30 September 2009.
Applying Greenhouse Gas Emissions Lifecycle Assessment Jennifer L. Christensen WISE Intern 2009 August 5, 2009.
Available for download here:
THINK OUTSIDE THE BARREL …
The role of bioenergy in the European Union Giulio Volpi Renewable Energy and Carbon Capture and Storage Policy DG Energy, European Commission.
The LULUCF sector: land use, land-use change and forestry
- Biofuels: Issues at stake PFSA, Namur, 21/12/06.
Economic and Land Use Implications of Biofuels: Role of Policy Madhu Khanna With Xiaoguang Chen and Haixiao Huang Department of Agricultural and Consumer.
Current Research and Emerging Economic and Environmental Issues on Biofuels Madhu Khanna University of Illinois.
Copenhagen 29 June Energy and climate outlook: Renewables in a world and European perspective Peter Russ.
Bio-Fuels Project & Industry Introduction Dr. Dawne Martin College of Business July 25, 2012.
ENERGY FROM BIOMASS. Biomass Biomass energy is energy produced from burning wood or plant residue, or from organic wastes (manure, dung). Algae is most.
Cellulosic Ethanol In-Chul Hwang. What is Cellulosic Ethanol? Ethanol made from cellulosic biomass which Ethanol made from cellulosic biomass which comprises.
Renewable energy – EU policy update Mihail DUMITRU European Commission, Directorate-General for Agriculture.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges Maria Argiri Economic Analysis Division.
The Future of Biomass Energy Energy Days 2012: Many Paths for Sustainable Energy.
Govinda R. Timilsina The World Bank, Washington, DC Fourth Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference March 24-26, 2011 Economic and Environmental Impacts of Biofuels.
Trade and Climate Change: International Perspective Mac Callaway, Ph.D UNEP-RISØ Center Technical University of Denmark CPA International.
1 BIOFUELS FROM A FOOD INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE Willem-Jan Laan European Director External Affairs Unilever N.V.
The Impact of the EU Biofuel Policy on the Feedstock Markets in the EU and Worldwide Stephan Hubertus Gay European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural.
An assessment of the global land use change and food security effects of the use of agricultural residues for bioenergy production Edward Smeets, Andrzej.
Multi-criteria comparison of fuel policies: Renewable fuel mandate, emission standards, and GHG tax Deepak Rajagopal (UCLA), Gal Hochman (Rutgers), David.
« Biofuels » (Enlarged Advisory Group on Pigmeat, 1st April 2011) Andreas Pilzecker, European Commission (Directorate-General for Agriculture, Unit H4)
UK Renewable Energy Policy with particular reference to bioenergy
BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION Joel Velasco +1 (202) Brazil’s Sugarcane Ethanol Industry.
State Department Cooperation in Hemispheric Alternative Energy: Lessons by: Matthew McManus Division Chief, Energy Producer Country Affairs U.S. Department.
Liberalization of Trade in Biofuels: Implications for GHG Emissions and Social Welfare Xiaoguang Chen Madhu Khanna Hayri Önal University of Illinois at.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT AND ENERGY PRODUCTION: EVALUATION OF BIOCHAR APPLICATION ON TAIWANESE SET-ASIDE LAND Chih-Chun Kung November 2012 Austin, Texas.
Technologies of Climate Change Mitigation Climate Parliament Forum, May 26, 2011 Prof. Dr. Thomas Bruckner Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management.
1 Biofuels in Africa: Potential for Sustainable Development Donald Mitchell Dar es Salaam, Tanzania February 24, 2010
Biofuels, Food Security and Environmental Sustainability: Global Challenges and Opportunities Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte The Politics of Food Conference.
Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development Round Table 3: Green Growth and Climate Change Hsin Huang Trade and Agriculture Directorate EastAgri.
Life Cycle Assessment of Biofuels Paolo Masoni ENEA – LCA & Ecodesign Lab (ACS PROT – INN) Rome, th January.
Office of the Chief Economist Office of Energy Policy and New Uses Harry S. Baumes, Ph. D. Associate Director Office of Energy Policy and New Uses The.
Climate Change and Energy Impacts on Water and Food Scarcity Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division High-level Panel.
The Role of Biofuels in the Transformation of Agriculture Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte and Chad M. Hellwinckel The Economics of Alternative Energy Sources.
International Climate Policy Hamburg Institute of International Economics International Climate Policy Michael Dutschke Bio-Energy and Forestry Capacity.
International Consultation on Pro-Poor Jatropha Development
“The Economics of Alternative Energy Sources and Globalization: The Road Ahead”, November15 – 17, 2009, Orlando, Florida Impacts of future energy price.
Bioenergy: Where We Are and Where We Should Be Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte Chad M. Hellwinckel.
Workshop on Energy-related National and EU-Wide Projections of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 27 to 28 februari 2002 Emissions of CO 2 from the energy sector.
Grain & Sugar Ethanol Fact Sheet Grain-to-Ethanol Production The grain-to-ethanol process starts by separating, cleaning, and milling.
The Biofuels Market: Current Situation and Alternative Scenarios Simonetta Zarrilli United Nations Conference on Trade and Development - UNCTAD Bali, 12.
German case study on agrofuels presented by Mireille Hönicke, BUKO Agrar Koordination August 31st 2009 at the International Workshop Global Agrofuels:
Natuurwetenschap & SamenlevingScience, Technology & Society Large Scale International Bio-energy Trade - Perspectives, Possibilities and Criteria; introduction.
Ethanol Fuel (Corn, Sugarcane, Switchgrass) Blake Liebling.
The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard Melissa Powers Assistant Professor, Lewis & Clark Law School Portland, OR USA.
Climate Policy and Green Tax Reform in Denmark Some conclusions from the 2009 report to the Danish Council of Environmental Economics Presentation to the.
Biofuels CENV 110. Topics The Technology Current status around the world – Supply and trends in production Impact Benefits Costs – Carbon balance – Net.
BI(16)4337 A SUSTAINABLE BIOENERGY POLICY POST 2020 contribution of the agricultural sector and perspectives for advanced biofuels & biogas.
1 Some Modeling Results for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard International Energy Workshop Venice, June 19, 2009 Carmen Difiglio, Ph.D. Deputy Assistant Secretary.
Biofuels: is the cure worse than the disease? IEA Bioenergy Executive Committee Oslo, Norway 14 May 2008 Round Table on Sustainable Development.
World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030
Policies to Accelerate the Bioeconomy: Unintended Effects and Effectiveness Madhu Khanna University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
Risk-focused bio-fuel law the weeds case study
LAND USE, LIVELIHOODS AND BIOENERGY: A FARMER PERSPECTIVE
Bioenergy Supply, Land Use, and Environmental Implications
Session 4: Biofuels: How Feasible Are Large-Scale Goals for Biofuel Penetration in the US and Canada? Ken Andrasko, EPA Session Objectives: Gauge.
Tek. Bioenergi (TKK-2129) Instructor: Rama Oktavian
Presentation transcript:

1 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 1 Biofuels: is the cure worse than the disease? World Environment Center Roundtable “Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices” OCTOBER 17-18, 2007

2 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 2

3 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 3 Outline Potential conventional and advanced biofuels –Technical –Economic Policy –Subsidies –Trade policies Consequences –Cost-effectiveness –Certification An alternative policy agenda

4 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 4 Technical Potential Energy crops – ‘first-generation’ Available land with potential for rain-fed cultivation –deduct forest land –deduct land already in use (arable land) –deduct land needed to accommodate growing population –deduct needed pasture land Estimate at lower end of range in alternative studies, however, still optimistic –Overestimate land that could be used –Underestimate land already in use –Underestimate water shortage (f.e. Africa) –Competing demands Yield – 190 Giga Joule per hectare a year Total: 14 Exa joule in 2050 (8% of demand transport)

5 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 5 Technical Potential Residues/waste – ‘second-generation’ Crop residues –Higher productivity, less residuals –Prevent soil erosion Forest residues –Increased demand for material use –Prevent soil erosion –Inaccessibility very distant locations (< 200 km between harvesting and processing) Animal and organic waste –Cost of collection / complexity of logistics Marginal and degraded land –not taken into account (in the order of 5 – 7 Exa Joule) Total: 24 EJ in 2050 (12% of demand in transport)

6 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 6 Biofuels potential in 2050Energy demand in 2050 Technical Global Biofuels Potential max. 20% of energy demand in transport sector 6% 101% 16% 55% 9% 18%

7 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 7 Economic Potential IEA: between 7% (2030) and 14% (2050) of energy demand in transport Assumptions: –Declining feedstock prices –Technological breakthroughs –Acceptable cost of logistics However: –Trend feedstock prices is up and correlated with oil price –Breakthroughs are inherently uncertain –Cost of logistics high

8 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 8 Source: IEA (2006), Ralph Sims

9 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 9 Climate Change mitigation potential Source: IEA

10 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 10 Climate Change Mitigation Potential Technical potential: 2 Gt CO 2 –equiv. Ambitious IEA scenario (2006): 1.8 Gt CO 2 – equiv. ~ 3.5% of total energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2050 Assuming: –Only sugar cane and second-generation technologies are used –Life-cycle GHG reductions from well-to-wheels is 90% –New land available without additional emissions

11 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 11 Provisional total support estimates (TSE) 2006 OECD economy EthanolBiodieselTotal liquid biofuels TSE (billions of US$) Variable Share (percent) TSE (billions of US$) Variable Share (percent) TSE (billions of US$) Variable Share (percent) United States 5.4 – 6.660% – 65% 0.5 – 0.6~ 85%5.9 – 7.2~ 65% EU1.698%3.190%4.293% Canada0.1570% %0.1165% Australia0.035~ 70%0.021~ 70%0.05~ 70% Switzerland> % %0.0198% Total7.2 – – Source: Steenblik, R., Biofuels at what cost? Government support for Ethanol and biodiesel in selected OECD Countries, IISSD, Global Subsidies Initiative

12 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 12 Mandates and Trade (Barriers) Mandatory blending, volumetric or market-share targets guarantee market Trade barriers favour domestic consumption

13 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 13 Consequences (1) Increased GHG as a result of deforestation and land use changes Land degradation / water pollution

14 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 14 Biodiesel Ethanol Methane Fossil Source: Zah (2007)

15 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 15 Consequences (2) Higher food prices –Winners and losers in the agricultural sector No benefits for least-developed countries Oil dependence unchanged

16 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 16 Cost-effectiveness Energy security: –support per litre of fossil fuels displaced –US: between $ 0.66 and 1.40 per litre fossil fuels displaced –EU: between $ 0.77 and 4.98 per litre fossil fuels displaced Climate Change –support per tonne of CO 2 avoided –US: > $ 500 per tonne of CO 2 –EU: $ 340 – 4520 per tonne of CO 2

17 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 17 Policy Response: Standards and certification schemes International vs national Mandatory vs voluntary Including vs excluding displacement effects No differentiating between life-cycle GHG balance –Exception: Low Carbon Fuel Standard Long timeframe –implementation on global scale will take years

18 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 18 Alternative policy agenda (1) 1. Cease creating new mandates, support schemes 1.phase out existing ones 2. Support R&D 2 nd generation technologies 3. Introduce more technology neutral policies 1.carbon tax, low carbon fuel standard 4. Environmental cost and benefits 5. Increase energy efficiency

19 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 19 Alternative agenda (2) 6. Harmonize certification efforts 7. Lowering trade barriers 8. Optimal use biomass in developing countries –Energy access or producing for export markets?

20 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 20 Conclusion Current policies risks to: Increase GHG emissions Damage the environment (biodiversity, soil quality, water supplies) Increase food insecurity Without benefiting energy security And while ‘loosing’ a lot of taxpayers’ money in the process Policies should:  Stop distorting, start supporting the market Differentiate fuels by pricing (1 st best) or regulating (2 nd best) carbon content

21 October 17-18, 2007WEC Roundtable ‘Changing the Future of Our Energy Choices’ 21 Literature Doornbosch, R., R. Steenblik (2007), Biofuels: is the cure worse than the disease, background paper prepared for the 20 th meeting of the Round Table on Sustainable Development, OECD, Paris Fischer, G. and Schrattenholzer, L. (2001): Global bioenergy potentials through 2050, Biomass and Bioenergy, 20 (3): Reprinted as RR International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg IEA (2006), World Energy Outlook, OECD, Paris IEA (2006), Energy Technologies Perspectives, OECD, Paris Steenblik, R. (2007), Biofuels at what costs? Government support for ethanol and biodiesel in selected OECD countries, Global Subsidies Initiative of the IISD, Geneva Zah, Rainer, Heinz Böni, Marcel Gauch, Roland Hischier, Martin Lehmann and Patrick Wäger (2007a), Life Cycle Assessment of Energy Products: Environmental Assessment of Biofuels — Executive Summary, EMPA – Materials Science & Technology, Federal Office for Energy (BFE), Bern, p.161