1 Extreme Weather Impacts on Infrastructure G. L. Geernaert, S. J. Fernandez Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM

2 Outline Infrastructure interdependence Infrastructure interdependence The social dimension and issues The social dimension and issues LANL programmatic capabilities LANL programmatic capabilities Needs and opportunities Needs and opportunities

3 Infrastructure interdependence Safety: managing a crisis-population Safety: managing a crisis-population Scenarios of evacuation decision-making Scenarios of evacuation decision-making Communicating to diverse population groups Communicating to diverse population groups Law enforcement and state/federal aid Law enforcement and state/federal aid Transport networks: scenarios Transport networks: scenarios Energy security Energy security Predicting grid break-down and recovery Predicting grid break-down and recovery Water security: clean water Water security: clean water Food security Food security Financial institutions, security, schools, etc. Financial institutions, security, schools, etc. Human capital: local Human capital: local Coastal: Cultural and ecological heritage Coastal: Cultural and ecological heritage

4 Social dimension and issues Communicating to the public Communicating to the public Macroscale: federal/state Macroscale: federal/state Executing decisions: local Executing decisions: local Community networks well understood Community networks well understood Religious affinity groups Religious affinity groups Ethnic affinity groups Ethnic affinity groups Other affinity groups Other affinity groups Reverse migration Reverse migration Local cultural “ownership” by community Local cultural “ownership” by community

5 The Interaction of Extreme Weather Events and the Nation’s Infrastructures Coupled Application Models for Infrastructure with Weather & Climate Maintenance of Daily Functioning of U.S. Society in the Face of Threats to our Infrastructure

6 Requirements Developed from: Interagency Hurricane Conference – Joint NOAA(DOC) – NSF Research requirements under umbrella of Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Interagency Hurricane Conference – Joint NOAA(DOC) – NSF Research requirements under umbrella of Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Joint Planning Conference of the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA Joint Planning Conference of the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA National Laboratory – CIP – FSSC Conferences of the DOE Visualization and Modeling Working Group National Laboratory – CIP – FSSC Conferences of the DOE Visualization and Modeling Working Group White House Office of Science and Technology Policy – Katrina Lessons Learned White House Office of Science and Technology Policy – Katrina Lessons Learned US Chamber of Commerce – American Meteorological Society Policy Forum US Chamber of Commerce – American Meteorological Society Policy Forum

7 A National Integrated Modeling Capability A capability to transform numerical weather predictions to the final impact on engineered infrastructures A capability to transform numerical weather predictions to the final impact on engineered infrastructures A capability to transform numerical weather predictions to the final impact on non-engineered infrastructures A capability to transform numerical weather predictions to the final impact on non-engineered infrastructures A series of model relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for: A series of model relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for: extreme weather modeling, extreme weather modeling, the infrastructure impact and cascading modeling the infrastructure impact and cascading modeling the debris, waterways and flooding modeling the debris, waterways and flooding modeling the transportation and response models the transportation and response models Demographic, social, and economic implications. Demographic, social, and economic implications.

8 LANL Critical Infrastructure Projects & Technologies Typical Applications Situational awareness Contingency planning Independent assessment & verification Event reconstruction Consequence assessment Recovery & restoration operations Security & reliability improvement Deployment of protective forces

9 CIP/DSS Architecture

10 Unifying Idea Develop standard protocols in a service- oriented architecture (SOA) for supplying weather and climate data to infrastructure models.

11 Quick-Response Process

12 How might a roadmap provide the basis of a credible proposal? One possible roadmap that integrates the extreme weather models, infrastructure failure and restoration models, the USACE emergency response models, and economic models is described as an example.

13 Landfall and wind calculations Electric Transmission Lines & Power Plants Natural Gas Pipelines, Processing Plants & Compressors

14 Hurricane Dennis Outage Restoration

15 Time History – Actual vs. Predicted

16 Hurricane Katrina Ice Model Landfall Plus About 24 Hours

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18 Summary The time may be right to propose a series of model relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for: The time may be right to propose a series of model relationships can begin to be woven into a roadmap of inputs/outputs for: extreme weather modeling, extreme weather modeling, the infrastructure impact and cascading modeling the infrastructure impact and cascading modeling the debris, waterways and flooding modeling the debris, waterways and flooding modeling the transportation and response models the transportation and response models Demographic, social, and economic implications. Demographic, social, and economic implications.

19 Uncertainties, needs and opportunities Uncertainties Uncertainties Hurricane intensification, then track Hurricane intensification, then track Structural collapse – flying debris induced damage Structural collapse – flying debris induced damage Needs Needs Better wind field predictions Better wind field predictions Preparedness much further in advance Preparedness much further in advance Strategies for public warning, communications Strategies for public warning, communications Opportunities Opportunities HiFi HiFi Lessons learned translated into new strategies Lessons learned translated into new strategies