The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 Anomaly Correlation Standard Dev Drift NINO-3

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 Anomaly Correlation Standard Dev Drift NINO-4

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 Anomaly CorrelationStandard Dev IOD

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology OBS relationship between AU rainfall and the first two dominant EOF modes of SST DJF MAM JJA SON CC with PC1 CC with PC2

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Can POAMA predict “flavour” of El Nino? 1 month lead 5 month lead 9 month lead EOF PC EOF PC SST EOF1SST EOF2 Wang and Hendon (2007) showed that EOF2 important for Australian Rainfall

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 1997 OBS 2002 POAMA at 3 months lead vs 2002 SST forecasts

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 1997 SON POAMA lt SON POAMA lt SON Obs 2002 SON Obs BUT Skill disappears after first season

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology POAMA’s first two SST EOF modes (SON) 0.93 (pattern corr.) LT LT % (explained var.)12% 0.88 LT OBS POAMA 54% 66% 12% 10% 71% 8%

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Corr between rainfall and PC1 in POAMA hindcasts at lead time 0 to 6 months (anticlockwise) JJA LT0 LT1 LT2LT3LT4 LT5 LT6

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Corr between rainfall and PC1 in POAMA hindcasts at lead time 0 to 6 months (anticlockwise) SON

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

SON Rainfall from POAMA-1.5 POAMA vs Climatology NCC operational vs Climo POAMA vs NCC Brier Skill Score percentage improvement Forecast for first season BUT Skill disappears after first season Too emphatic ?

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Skill improvement of POAMA prediction from the current operational prediction for exceeding median rainfall (at lead time 0) DJF MAM (summer) (autumn) JJA SON (winter) (spring)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Skill improvement of Multi-Model Ensemble prediction compared to POAMA only for rainfall (at lead time 0) DJF MAM (summer) (autumn) JJA SON (winter) (spring)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Nino-4 Anomaly Correlation Red - Old system Navy - PEODAS Blue - ECMWF Navy - PEODAS Pink - No Assim

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology West Pacific (Nino-4) Why no significant improvement relative to No Assim (and behind ECWMF) in first few months? Standard deviation of NINO4 anomalies with lead time INITIALISATION SHOCK ? Imbalanced initialisation or Model error ? Probably model error

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology IOD Anomaly Correlation Red - Old system Navy - PEODAS Blue - ECMWF Navy - PEODAS Pink - No Assim

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology IOD: Why no significant improvement and behind ECWMF ? Due to Altimeter data ? Correlation of surface U with OSCAR ( PEODAS ECMWF

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology IOD: Why no significant improvement and behind ECWMF ? Or Due to Model error ? STD of IOD Bias in IOD East

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Characteristics of simulated IOD in POAMA

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology The observed DMI peaks strongly in SON and is a minimum in Jan-Apr. The simulated DMI in the forecast model exhibits a realistic seasonal variation but its maximum in SON is too weak and it does not drop off as quickly in Dec-Jan as observed. Inspection of the annual variation of the amplitude of the Niño3.4 index indicates realistic amplitude and seasonal variation (peak in Nov-Jan), suggesting that any errors in remote forcing from ENSO do not stem from an erroneous depiction of the phase locking to the seasonal cycle of El Niño development. Obs Lt1 Lt3 Lt6 Lt9 Seasonal cycle

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 Standard Deviation Drift IOD-EAST

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Examples of poor central Pacific Forecasts Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 Light Blue - POAMA-1.5

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology SST 20C Depth Zonal Wind Cold Bias - initialisation shock ?

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Missed ENSO’s Why? Model problem Predictability Initialisation

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 1997 El Nino