Recent Developments in Trade Theory Rod Falvey March 2009.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The European Union: economics, policies and history
Advertisements

INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE AND THE SCALE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION Elisa Riihimäki Statistics Finland, Business Structures September
Trade and Inequality Nina Pavcnik Dartmouth College BREAD, CEPR, and NBER WTO-ILO Conference Research on Global Trade and Employment.
International Economics Tenth Edition
International Economics Tenth Edition
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ITS POLITICAL ECONOMY
The Heckscher-Ohlin Model: Features, Flaws, and Fixes III: So What Do We, Like, Do? Alan V. Deardorff University of Michigan.
Unit 1: Trade Theory External Economies of Scale 2/8/2012.
Innovation Economics Class 6.
Increasing Returns and Economic Geography © Allen C. Goodman, 2002.
2. Free Trade and Protection. Summary 1.Theory of Comparative Advantage: Why trade is good. 2.Where comparative advantage comes from: Heckscher-Ohlin.
1 CHAPTER 1: PRO-COMPETITVE EFFECT OF TRADE 1A: Imports as market discipline 1B: Empirical evidence 1C: Heterogeneity of firms, productivity, mark-ups.
CONCEPTS of VALUE. FACTORS OF VALUE UTILITY –THE ABILITY OF A PRODUCT TO SATISFY HUMAN WANTS. RELATES TO THE DAMAND SIDE OF THE MARKET. SCARCITY –THE.
The Domestic Sources of Foreign Economic Policies
International Factor Movements
11 PERFECT COMPETITION CHAPTER.
1 BA 187 – International Trade Krugman & Obstfeld, Chapter 7 International Factor Movements.
Goods Prices and Factor Prices: The Distributional Consequences of International Trade Nothing is accomplished until someone sells something. (popular.
1 BA 187 – International Trade Specific Factors & Differential Gains from Trade.
Equilibrium in a Monopolistically Competitive Market
Copyright ©2004, South-Western College Publishing International Economics By Robert J. Carbaugh 9th Edition Chapter 3 (A): Sources of Comparative Advantage.
HECKSCHER-OHLIN THEORY  What determines comparative advantage?  What are the effects of international trade on the earnings of factors of production?
Foundations of Modern Trade Theory: Comparative Advantage
BA 187 International Trade
Explorations in Economics
1 CHAPTER 3:TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT 3A: Wage rigidities 3B: Imperfect labour mobility, labour turnover, efficiency wages 3C: Labour market institutions, comparative.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 4 Comparative Advantage and Factor Endowments.
Trade: Factor Availability and Factor Proportions Are Key
Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 7 International Factor Movements.
1 CHAPTER 3:TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT 3A: Wage rigidities 3B: Imperfect labour mobility, labour turnover, efficiency wages 3C: Labour market institutions, comparative.
Economies of Scale, Imperfect Competition, and International Trade
New Classical Theories of International Trade
1 CHAPTER 1: PRO-COMPETITVE EFFECT OF TRADE 1A: Imports as market discipline 1B: Empirical evidence 1C: Heterogeneity of firms, productivity, mark-ups.
Week 6 The Domestic Sources of Foreign Economic Policies.
© 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. This is proprietary material solely for authorized instructor use. Not authorized for sale or distribution in any manner.
Theories of International Trade Dr.C S Shylajan Faculty, IBS Hyderabad.
1 CHAPTER 2:TRADE AND WAGES 2A: Standard trade theory 2B: Empirical evidence 2C: Outsourcing and wages 2D: More recent advances Globalisation and labour.
Firms, Trade and Location Chapter 5. Distance in economics  The relevance of transportation costs ( Box 5.1 )  CIF (cost, insurance, freight)  FOB.
Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Global Business Today 7e by Charles W.L. Hill.
University of Papua New Guinea International Economics Lecture 9: Trade Theorems and Extensions.
1 CHAPTER 2:TRADE AND WAGES 2A: Standard trade theory 2B: Empirical evidence 2C: Outsourcing and wages 2D: More recent advances Globalisation and labour.
A2 Economics International Trade A2 Economics Presentation 2006.
TECHNOLOGY, GEOGRAPHY, AND TRADE BY JONATHAN EATON AND SAMUEL KORTUM ECONOMETRICA, 2002 Elisa Katharina Orthofer February 4 th, 2016.
Chapter 6 The Theory of Tariffs and Quotas. Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-2 Chapter Objectives Introduce the theory.
International Economics International Economics Tenth Edition Trade Restrictions: Tariffs Dominick Salvatore John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Salvatore: International.
EF310: International Trade and Business Lecture 17 Theories of International Trade.
Global sourcing Pol Antràs – Elhanan Helpman (2004)
Economies of Scale Introduction and appropriation issues.
ESA Economia Internazionale Lecture 8 Giorgia Giovannetti Professor of Economics, University of Firenze
E&D International Economics, 2 Lecture 8 Giorgia Giovannetti
The “New Trade Theory” + some other post-HO-models Appleyard & Field (& Cobb): Chapter 10 Krugman & Obstfeld: Chapter 6.
Economics of Trade International Political Economy Prof. Tyson Roberts 1.
Chapter 8 Strategy in the Global Environment
Marketing margins and trade policy reform
International Trade Theory
Factor endowments and the Heckscher-Ohlin theory
International Economics By Robert J. Carbaugh 9th Edition
International Trade Trade patterns and trade politics
Prof. Dr. Dr. h. c. Karl-Heinz Paqué
Factor Endowments Theory and Heckscher-Ohlin Model
ECON 511 International Finance & Open Macroeconomy CHAPTER FIVE
Lecture 4 Modern Theories and Additional Effects of Trade
Chapter 6: Alternative Theories of Trade
Gonzague Vannoorenberghe University of Mannheim 11/12/2008
Chapter 8 Strategy in the Global Environment
International Economics: Theory and Policy, Sixth Edition
Production Possibilities Schedules
Economics of Specialisation
Chapter 8 Strategy in the global Environment
Presentation transcript:

Recent Developments in Trade Theory Rod Falvey March 2009

Introductory comments Theory follows practice Recent is relative Will not cover all recent developments Will not necessarily cover even all the most important recent developments General equilibrium Some borrowed material Begin with context

Trade Theory - Issues Gains/losses from trade Pattern of trade Effects on outputs, income distribution etc

Trade Policy - Issues Effects of protection Costs of protection Optimal policies – second best Piecemeal reform

Sources of Gains from Trade [static] New Products/Improved Inputs Economies of Scale - in manufacturing Comparative Advantage - resource re-allocation

Sources of Gains from Trade [dynamic] Learning by doing/exporting Technology transfer (broadly defined) Need spillovers for sustained growth Need analysis at firm/worker level

Ricardian Model Comparative Advantage (technology based) - distinct from absolute advantage - all countries can compete/trade (if wages low enough) - all can gain from trade - smaller countries tend to gain more But - complete specialisation - no internal income distribution

Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) Model Trade pattern resource based –Countries export goods that use intensively their relatively abundant factors (H-O Thm) –Trade draws factor prices closer together across countries, becoming equal in certain circumstances (FPE Thm) –Trade changes real factor returns (S-S Thm) Benefiting owners of abundant factors Hurting owners of scarce factors –Trade and output effects of factor accumulation (Rybczynski Thm )

Extensions of HO Increase numbers of goods and factors (from 2x2 to nxm) Theorems generalise – but weaker Can add technology differences But Specialisation - potential production indeterminacy Resulting trade patterns very sensitive to trade costs No Intra-industry trade (prominent in EU liberalisation)

CGE modelling - issues Models based too closely on HO dont fit the data Models predict too much specialization These problems have been dealt with in a variety of ways:

Specific Factors Also called the Ricardo-Viner Model Each sector has its own specific factor Implications –Supplies likely remain positive at all prices –Supplies increase smoothly with price –There is no production indeterminacy –Trade does not equalize factor prices

Specific Factors But –Makes more sense for short run, than for long run –Explanation of trade based on specific factors close to tautological –Still no intra-industry trade

Armington Preferences Armington (1969) Products are differentiated by country of origin – popular in CGE models Implications –Trade need not equalize prices of same good from different countries –Have intra-industry trade

Armington Preferences But –Why are products differentiated by country? Ad hoc – but can allow close substitutes –Preferences give every country market power in trade – CGE policy results dominated by terms of trade effects

Monopolistic Competition (New Trade Theory) Krugman (1979, 1980) Helpman and Krugman (1985) in HO trade models Uses love of variety preferences – e.g. Dixit-Stiglitz Goods are differentiated by firm, while increasing returns at the firm level limit product variety

Monopolistic Competition Implications –Trade gains through new products consumed –Model explains intra-industry trade –Product-differentiated bilateral exports remain positive from any country that produces - less sensitive to trade costs –Model has a role for firms – in form of a representative firm

Monopolistic Competition But –Only makes sense for some manufactures and services, not for agricultural products, raw materials etc –Implications for specialization and factor prices are the same as the standard HO model –Doesnt necessarily mean trade gains from increasing firm size

Heterogeneous Firms Melitz (2003) in a Ricardian context. Bernard, Redding, and Schott (2005) in the HO model Individual firms produce differentiated products under monopolistic competition, but have different productivities Important role for trade costs – fixed and per unit Based on characteristics inferred from firm level data sets

Stylised Facts about Firms (in large countries) 1.Most dont export. Those that do export little and not very widely; 2.Exporters are larger, more productive, more skill and capital intensive and pay higher wages than domestic firms; and 3.Knowing a firms industry is not very informative about export participation. Suggest limitations of representative firm approach. Bernard/Jensen/Redding/Schott JEP 21(3) 2007

Autarky Costs Entry fixed cost Production fixed cost Production marginal cost (inverse of productivity) Entry as long as expected profits positive Autarky equilibrium productivity threshold for production Firms above threshold produce; firms below exit

Potential Entrants Entrants Randomly draw their productivity levels Lowest productivity entrants High productivity entrants Leave immediately Pay fixed production cost and serve the domestic market Pay irreversible investment to enter unable to earn positive operating profit Flow chart 1: Productivity uncertainty and firm entry/exit

Trade Costs Export fixed cost Unit trade cost (iceberg) Most productive firms export – use more resources – drawn from less productive firms – least productive exit Industry average productivity rises

Heterogeneous Firms Domestic survival productivity threshold in autarky Domestic and export survival thresholds in trade (export threshold higher due to trade costs) Domestic survival threshold higher in trade than in autarky Industry more productive – due to intra-industry resource reallocation – no change in individual firms productivities

Effects of trade Probability Firm level Productivity Export threshold Domestic threshold open Domestic threshold autarky Exporters Purely domestic firms Contract Leave Expand Exiters

Heterogeneous Firms Implications –Trade improves industry productivity relative to autarky – additional source of gains from trade – but number of varieties available may rise or fall. –Improved technology in one country may lead to reduced industry efficiency in its trading partner (but still gains from trade) –Can get specialization if technology or market size differences large enough –Supply responds to demand through entry and exit

Combined with HO Productivity growth stronger in comparative advantage industry - exporting opportunities greater in CA industries – bids up relative price of their intensive factor - greater exit of low productivity firms - industry productivity effects magnify effects of CA

Combined with HO If productivity increases strong enough – both factors real incomes can rise with trade liberalisation.

Heterogeneous Firms Why do firms differ in productivity? luck managerial ability/entrepreneurship producing products of different quality What leads to a better productivity distribution? human capital Do more productive firms export – or does exporting make firms more productive? Evidence (for developed countries) suggests former.

Heterogeneous Firms & Many Countries Distinguish extensive margin of trade – number of products exported and number of markets exported to; intensive margin of trade – volume of a particular product exported to a particular market. Trade liberalisation can affect both margins

New Economic Geography Other area where trade costs seem to be important. Geographical concentration of industries Advantages from a large number of competitors producing in an area (external and internal economies of scale) Agglomeration forces: Technological spillovers (e.g. silicon valley) Labour market pooling (e.g. City of London) Demand linkages (i.e. backward linkages) Supply linkages (i.e. forward linkages)

New Economic Geography Perfect Competition Comparative advantage implies countries specialise in sectors Monopolistic Competition New trade theory implies that agglomeration arises with integration if initial asymmetries across countries exist – home market effect New economic geography implies that integration tends to concentrate economic activity spatially (even without initial asymmetries across countries)

Propositions Home market effect Regions with large demand for increasing returns industries account for an even larger share of their production. Market potential raise local factor prices. A location whose access to major markets and suppliers is not impeded by large trade costs will tend to reward its factors with higher wages and land rentals.

Propositions 3. Market potential induces factor inflows (a) Firms (re)locate to areas with good access to major markets for final goods and major suppliers of intermediate inputs (backward linkages). (b) Workers migrate to locations with good access to suppliers of final goods (forward linkages). 4. Shock sensitivity: A temporary shock to economic activity in a location can permanently alter the pattern of agglomeration.

Institutions and Trade Interpret institutions broadly Structure of analysis: Use theory to examine the differential dependence of industries on the quality of this institution Derive measures of institutional dependence Find measures of institutional quality Test hypotheses using cross-industry and cross-country data

Incomplete contracts and firm boundaries Institution: property rights and contract enforcement Ownership structure indeterminate and irrelevant when contracts are complete and fully enforced Which activities take place within the firm and which are purchased in markets? Helpman Trade, FDI and the Organization of Firms, JEL September 2006

Firm Boundaries - Questions Which firms serve foreign markets? How do they serve them (exports or FDI)? How do they choose to organise production (outsource or integrate)? When do they outsource abroad rather than at home? When do they integrate abroad (FDI) rather than at home?

Incomplete contracts Standard approach is to assume relationship-specific investment by the trading parties, which in the absence of an enforceable contract leads to the holdup problem e.g. Some inputs are highly specific to a final product and their supply is not fully contractible – extent may vary across industries Relationship yields a surplus – to be bargained over

Credit market institutions Quality of financial market institutions can affect pattern of trade through industry differences in financial dependence - Bardhan and Kletzer (1987) Firms in countries where firms face tighter credit rationing, have a comparative disadvantage in financially dependent industries

Labour market institutions Davidson, Martin, and Matusz (1999): efficiency of labour market search differs across countries. Country with more efficient search technology then has comparative advantage in sector with higher separation rate, hence higher vacancy rate Cuñat and Melitz (2007): firms in countries with inflexible labour market institutions must contract on employment in advance of realizations of productivity shocks. These countries wind up with a comparative disadvantage in high volatility industries.

Trade Policy Positive – effects of standard instruments (tariffs, quotas etc.) Normative – welfare effects – optimum tariff only first best argument etc. Policy rankings

Actual Institutions Explaining GATT/WTO – why does it exist? Benefits of multilateral vs bilateral trade negotiations – multilateral retaliation Internal benefits of external constraints

Political Economy of Trade Policy Protection for Sale by Grossman and Helpman (1994) – used menu auction theory to explain industry tariff levels. Lobby groups offer contributions to a policy maker who is concerned about contributions and aggregate welfare. Policies set as if to optimise a welfare function in which groups that lobby receive a disproportionate weight.

Political Economy Approach can be applied to a range of other policies – trade and non-trade. Testing of a particular theory difficult because different theories tend to have similar predictions

Piecemeal Trade Policy Reform Gradual removal of trade restrictions, ensuring that welfare (of a representative agent) increases at each step. Two types of reform known: [A] Proportional tariff cuts [B] Concertina reform – reduce highest tariff to next highest (requires this good be a net substitute for all other goods).

Anderson & Neary (2005) Extend range of welfare improving reforms Consider generalised moments of tariff distributions Generalized moments are weighted moments where the weights are the elements of the substitution matrix

An increase in the generalized mean reduces welfare An increase in the generalized variance reduces welfare. Gives a range of welfare improving tariff reforms – e.g. uniform absolute tariff reduction