Jason Barr, Rutgers, Newark Troy Tassier, Fordham EEA 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

Jason Barr, Rutgers, Newark Troy Tassier, Fordham EEA 2011

Two separate business districts in Manhattan. Why did they evolve separately? Why was there a “jump” and why didn’t lower Manhattan just “creep” upwards? Was it bedrock or underlying economic forces? What came first “chicken” or “egg” (i.e. people or businesses)? What were the early aspects of agglomeration? Did they contribute to two separate districts?

The two districts are separated by a bedrock “barrier.” In Barr, Tassier and Trendafilov (2010), we show evidence that bedrock did not impose a large cost on builders and that conventional wisdom appears to confuse correlation with causation. Here we investigate the dynamic process by which the spatial dynamics of land use unfold to provide evidence on the rise of these two districts.

Causes of “suburbanization” and “sprawl”: Do jobs follow residences or residences follow jobs? Thurton and Yezer (1994), “We find very little support for the contention that jobs follow population into suburbs.” Hoogstra, et. al. (2005): Meta-analysis shows that jobs follow people, people don’t follow jobs. Edge City Hypothesis (Garreau, 1991 ) Office development emerges in suburbs near highway intersections. “View from Space” (Burchfield, 2006): Sprawl affected geology, topography and climate

Trow’s NYC Directories: Employment Category, Job Address and Home Address. Sample Selection Issue Today: Evidence from 1861, 1892, 1905 In process: 1861, 1876,1892, 1905

Job CategoryCountPercent Agent Broker Clerk Commission30.09 Exchange FIRE Government Manufacturing Professional Sales Service Transportation Total3123

Job Category Freq.Percent Manufacturing1, Domestic service Transportation Clerk Sales Professional service Protection FIRE982.0 Agents and Collectors871.8 Peddlers801.6 Managers and Foreman521.1 Total4,878100

Steady movement of Bankers and Insurance Workers northward. Merchants in 1860 will living around Union and Madison Squares but were working downtown. Jump was due to movement of residences and businesses to follow. Do not see evidence of agglomeration story but rather “edge” city story, i.e. do not see agglomeration effects cause rise of skyscrapers in midtown.