Assignment Two: Impact Analysis And Scenario Analysis Google Chromecast Assignment Two: Impact Analysis And Scenario Analysis Amanda Caruso Professor Gupta BK 459-01 February 4, 2014

Section One : Company & Product Identification Company: Google Product: Chromecast Device that streams music and videos from laptops and Android & Apple smartphones and tablets to HD TVs Target Market Targeted to younger consumers who subscribe to video streaming services like Netflix and Hulu Plus as a means to put these services on your television Positioned as a cheaper option to other streaming devices already on the market such as, Apple TV and Roku players

Section Two: Environmental Analysis Consumer Trend: More people are subscribing to various streaming services like Netflix, Hulu Plus, and Amazon Prime Instant. Uncertainty One: Popularity of TV Streaming Services More people are subscribing to multiple streaming platforms, experts believe that people have accounts with at least two streaming services. In 2013, Netflix added 11 million subscribers and Hulu brought in $1 billion in revenue. These services are needed for Chromecast, Apple TV, and Roku players. Will consumer continue to use subscription video services? Technology Trend: Many consumers are using mobile devices like tablets and smartphones to stream videos from subscription videos services. Uncertainty Two: Mobile Device Streaming The applications that people use to stream videos from on their mobile devices are the same used to stream videos to your television from the Chromecast, Apple TV, and Roku players. Will consumers decide that the added benefit of the bigger television screen is not enough and continue to just use streaming services on their mobile devices?

Section TWO: Environmental Analysis Technology Trend: Products like the Xbox One, PlayStation 4, Blu-ray Players, and Smart TVs are now offering the option to stream videos from subscription video services to TVs. Uncertainty Three: Second Function Technology Competition New gaming systems, smart TVs, and Blu-ray players are now offering the bundling the option to stream videos from subscription services along with their intended purpose. These products are usually much more expensive than streaming devices like the Chromecast, Apple TV, and Roku players, but will consumers just chose to buy one of these products and use them as instead? Economic Trend: Rising cable TV prices are causing people to cancel their cable plans or unsubscribe from premium cable TV channels in favor of video subscription streaming services. (Possible Future Trend) Uncertainty Four: Rising Cable Prices Some consumers fed up with the price of their cable bills have chosen to cut channels and replace them with video services like Netflix and Hulu Plus that offer the same shows and movies and more content. This would help increase the need for devices like the Chromecast. Will consumers chose to end their cable TV plans? Uncertainty Five: Cable Comes Back In response to consumers cutting their cable services, cable companies have attempt to recapture customers by offering more services, such mobile applications from which consumers can stream live television from, along with offering more On Demand programming for consumers. Comcast will be doing special streaming for the Winter Olympics for customers. Will cable make a comeback and prevent people from subscribing to video services?

Section Two: Environmental Analysis Technology Trend: Existing products like Roku players and Apple TV have already established themselves in the market and offer different features than the Chromecast Uncertainty Six: Apple TV & Roku Players (Possible Future Trend) Apple customers are already using Apple TV in conjunction with their Apple products, while other users have turned to Roku players. Apple TV is predicted to undergo major changes in the coming year, while Roku has recently unveiled a cheaper device and may introduce a TV this year too. Will the Chromecast be able to compete with these already established products?

Section Three: Impact Analysis Immediacy Impact Low High Second Function Technology Competition Rising Cable Prices (Possible Future Trend) Popularity of TV Streaming Services Low High Apple TV & Roku Players Mobile Device Streaming Cable Comes Back

Section Three: Impact Explanations Uncertainty One: Popularity of TV Streaming Services – High Impact & High Immediacy This uncertainty should be closely monitored since in is essential to the success of the Chromecast. The Chromecast is dependent on streaming services for content, so streaming services popularity must remain high. This is a growing trend that is expected to continue to grow, so it is important to monitor and ensure that there is continued streaming popularity. Uncertainty Two: Mobile Device Streaming – Low Impact & Low Immediacy The rise popularity of mobile device streaming may in fact help sales of the Chromecast because the Chromecast offers the option to take videos being viewed on mobile devices and stream them directly to the TV. Google should monitor the situation to ensure that consumers do not solely watch videos on their mobile devices. However, the possibility of this happening is unlikely due to the fact that this means people can not watch television together or on a bigger screen. So, while continued mobile device watching is expected to slowly grow it is not a true threat to the Chromecast.

Section Three: Impact Explanations Uncertainty Three: Second Function Technology Competition – High Impact & High Immediacy The new Xbox One & PlayStation 4, along with Blu-ray Players can stream limited video services directly to your TV as the Chromecast can do. Consumers who have one of these products will have no need for the Chromecast unless the video service they want to stream is not offered through these other products, especially because the gaming systems offer other applications as their original purpose. The rising popularity of Smart TV is even more of a threat to the Chromecast because it will essentially negate its purpose by allowing consumers to stream these services directly from the TV. Uncertainty Four: Rising Cable Prices – High Impact & Low Immediacy The rising costs of cable services is causing some customers to cancel their premium cable channels, leaving consumers with more disposable income to buy streaming services. An increase in these subscriptions offers more potential customers for the Chromecast. In some cases, people have even canceled their cable in favor of just using streaming services. However, this would a very slow growing trend.

Section Three: Uncertainties Impact Explanations Uncertainty Five: Cable Comes Back – Low Impact & Low Immediacy Cable services are attempting to win back customers by offering more services. However, subscription streaming services have continued to grow and people are not being enticed back to cable if they have left their services. This trend should be monitored to ensure that it does not grow and become a threat. Uncertainty Six: Apple TV & Roku Players – High Impact & Low Immediacy Apple and Roku are a big threat for Google. They have already established themselves in the market and are now undergoing changes and expanding their offering as Google is entering the market. However, dates for improvements for Apple TV and a possible Roku TV have yet to be announced. This is not an immediate threat, but one that Google must work towards in order to avoid a big impact.

Section Four: Current Chromecast Strategies Priced to attract customers by offering a lower price of $35 Apple TV - $99 Roku Players - $49 to $99 Originally offered a 3 month Netflix membership when released Google ran out of Netflix offers with the launch of the product Chromecast works with both Android and Apple mobile devices Allows you to stream from your laptop or mobile device and use other applications while streaming Encourages product integration by only allowing streaming from within the Chrome browser Continually adds new mobile applications to stream videos from

Section Four: Possible Scenarios Uncertainty Three: Second Function Technology Competition: New gaming systems, smart TVs, and Blu-ray players are now offering the bundling the option to stream videos from subscription services along with their intended purpose. These products are usually much more expensive than streaming devices like the Chromecast, Apple TV, and Roku players, but will consumers just chose to buy one of these products and use them as instead? Scenario One: (45%) Regular televisions will be replaced by Smart TVs and consumers will be able to receive cable television and use subscription video services directly on their Smart TVs too negating the need for products like the Chromecast. In today’s world new technology continually replaces the old, it is very likely that standard televisions will eventually be replaced by Smart TVs in many households across the country. Google should work on developing their own Smart TVs that offer the same capabilities as the Chromecast.

Section Four: Possible Scenarios Scenario Two: (30%) Gaming stations, like the Xbox One and the PlayStation 4 will prevent the popularity of products like the Chromecast, because they offer the same benefits of the Chromecast along with the ability to game too. Gaming systems are targeted at a younger audience, these audiences will have no need for a Chromecast because they can stream from their gaming systems. Google should market the Chromecast to older audience who do not have a gaming system or even non- gamers by placing emphasis on the other capabilities of the Chromecast, like music streaming. Scenario Three: (25%) Smart TVs will not become popular within America and consumers will use the Chromecast to stream videos to their standard televisions. Smart TVs are very expensive to purchase and may turn customers off, especially in the current economic situation. Google should emphasis the fact the Chromecast offers the same capabilities as a Smart TV at a much lower price point.

Section Four: Best Strategy to Adopt Market the Chromecast as an alternative to a Smart TV, while working on developing a Google Smart TV. Smart TVs will eventually become the norm with in household across America. Most televisions manufacturers are working towards building and perfecting their Smart TV by building a user friendly interface and working with streaming services to offer their mobile applications on their televisions. However, Smart TVs are an expensive investment for consumers across America so implementation of Smart TVs will be a gradual process that will take place in the future. For now Google should market the Chromecast as a device that can turn your standard television into a Smart TV, in order to attract consumers who wish to purchase a Smart TV but do not have the money to do so. Google should also working on developing their own Smart TV, so that they can remain in the television business in the future, much like their other competitors, Apple and Roku, are doing.

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