UNCLASSIFIED ISMOR 2005 OA for Effects-Based Operations in the Maritime Domain Maritime Warfare Centre, UK Dr Martin Fowler, Chief Scientist, MWC Mr Mike Dobson, EBA analyst, MWC

UNCLASSIFIED Structure 1. Introduction to MWC 2. OA for EBO in maritime domain 3. Issues “warts and all”

UNCLASSIFIED Terminology n In international use, EBO is commonly favoured term n Recently UK Joint Doctrine and Concepts Centre (JDCC) renamed EBO as Effects-Based Approach to Operations (EBA2O) l EBO to refer to this overall subject l EBA for this branch of OA

UNCLASSIFIED Part 1 Introduction

UNCLASSIFIED MWC Location n Portsmouth, UK n Two sites: l Southwick - doctrine, training l Portsdown - OA, tactical development n Due to move and co-locate to Portsmouth naval base / Fareham / ? in …?

UNCLASSIFIED Maritime Warfare Centre MWC Mission is to: Enhance and Evolve the Maritime Contribution to Operations n A ‘one-stop shop’ for the evolution and dissemination of maritime/joint doctrine and concepts through teaching, tactical development, operational analysis, concept development and wargaming. n Provides the focus for the development and practice of operational level warfighting, planning and decision-making n Provides reactive analytical and scientific support to the Front Line

UNCLASSIFIED Campaign level OA at MWC n Responsible for provision of decision-making support and tactical guidance to Maritime Component Commander (MCC) n Development of OA to support maritime contribution to EBA: l Integrate OA into maritime campaign planning and assessment including identification of: s Role of the analyst s Requirements for methodologies, MoEs and analytical tools s Balance of OA and military judgement required in campaign assessment s Information requirement to support OA in campaign assessment l Longer term: s Development of planning and decision aids s Establishment and development of knowledge bases

UNCLASSIFIED Part 2 OA for Maritime EBO

UNCLASSIFIED Strategic Effects Full n Insight n Resilience n Reassurance n Transformation n Prevention n Deterrence n Coercion n Disruption n Defeat n Destruction n Stabilisation Principal effects in maritime domain n Reassurance n Prevention n Deterrence n Coercion n Disruption n Defeat n Destruction n Stabilisation

UNCLASSIFIED Reassurance

UNCLASSIFIED Prevention

UNCLASSIFIED Deterrence

UNCLASSIFIED Coercion

UNCLASSIFIED Disruption Frigate intercepts ‘go-fast’ smuggler

UNCLASSIFIED Defeat

UNCLASSIFIED Destruction

UNCLASSIFIED Stabilisation

UNCLASSIFIED Nice pictures but …. n These illustrate capabilities created by equipment and personnel who may carry out actions that may produce results that may achieve Effects n A capability does not ‘deliver Effect’ n Will Effects produced be: l Intended or Unintended? l Expected or Unexpected? l Desired or Undesired? n How will we analyse Effects? n Objective: progress from high-level EBA concept to practical application of EBA in maritime domain *

UNCLASSIFIED Background n Much on EBA principles at strategic level n Little on EBA at operational and tactical levels, especially in maritime domain n Most OA concepts focus on strategic level n Most OA methodologies derive from air domain l Focus on ‘hard’ effects l Counting bomb craters is not EBA n Much of efficacy of naval forces is based on ‘soft’ effects

UNCLASSIFIED EBA Tasking for OA Operational and tactical levels in the maritime domain n Practical assessment of effects l Planning and analysis incl. MoEs l Development of knowledge bases, planning & decision aids n Consistent with EBA principles, tools and techniques elsewhere l Joint l Allied / coalition l Combined (OGDs) n Impact and inter-relationship of NEC and ISR Provide EBA planning and analysis capability to MCC “Are we winning / did we win / could we have done it better?”

UNCLASSIFIED EBA OA Work Programme Two options: n Exercise EBA at sea (akin to Experimentation) l With MCC (UK Maritime Battle Staff) identify suitable exercise opportunities s Exercise NORDIC SHIELD n Table Top Tactics / Wargaming l Suitable scenarios l Work through planning procedures and OA methodology Objective: develop planning and assessment procedures for MCC to use EBA in maritime domain

UNCLASSIFIED What / Where / When / Who / Why n What l Exercise / operation at the campaign level led by MCC l Small scale n Where l Afloat or ashore? n When l iaw RN / allied exercise programme n Who l Team size - shortage of space l Resources - other tasking n Why l Deeds not just words

UNCLASSIFIED How? Exercise Plan (1) Using existing MCC planning procedures: n Determine desired Effects, intended results, likely actions, required capabilities n Identify suitable: l Measures of Success (MoS) l Measures of Effectiveness (MoE) l Measures of Performance (MoP) n Identify information collection requirements (amount, timescale) to support OA to produce MoS, MoE, MoP n Include EBA assessment in exercise planning

UNCLASSIFIED How? Exercise Plan (2) n Assess l Availability of information l How long to analyse information - will it meet timescale of battle rhythm? l How much will MoEs contribute to commander’s decision making? l Is procedure feasible, practical and robust? n Exercise it n Provide analysis reports l Quicklook < 1 week after ENDEX l Full < 6 weeks after ENDEX

UNCLASSIFIED Part 3 Issues

UNCLASSIFIED Issues (1) n Great concept, shame about the detail... n Need for extra resources l Words are cheap, custom tools and databases are expensive l Huge information requirement & data collection task for OA n Moving goalposts l Concept keeps developing / changing l Need to press for inclusion of OA requirement in planning and assessment

UNCLASSIFIED Issues (2) n Reluctance of some military to get involved l Lip service paid to EBA in long term planning l Preference for military judgement over OA s Popularity of naval / military history l Lack of appreciation of complexity of analysis problem s “Don’t bother me with trivia” n Low priority given to inclusion of OA staff in exercises

UNCLASSIFIED Current work in OA community? (1) n Forthcoming EBA assessment in exercise n Is anybody actually analysing maritime EBA at operational campaign level right now? l Planning l Data gathering l Tools & techniques l Analysis l MoEs l Results l Inform command decision making process

UNCLASSIFIED Current work in OA community? (2) n Borrow best practice from others l Consistency of approach l Synergy between domains l Avoid duplication n Keen to exchange ideas and methods with other OA authorities n Linkages and inter-relationships with NEC, ISR and Experimentation

UNCLASSIFIED Summary n Much on EBA principles at strategic level l Most OA conceptual papers focus on strategic level n Little on EBA at operational / tactical levels, especially in maritime domain l Most OA methodologies derive from air domain l Much of efficacy of naval forces based on ‘soft’ effects n Desire to exchange information with other OA authorities, l Practising OA assessment at campaign level l Maritime interest n Synergy with parallel EBA initiatives in land and air domains n MWC intend to analyse joint exercise this autumn