The Death of the Hunch Sasha Issenberg Slate MAY 22, 2012

Obama Ad Strategy Obama 2012 Ad Strategy: Unconventional? Unwise? “The Obama team has broken nearly every piece of received wisdom that media consultants like to offer about the intensity and duration necessary For television ads to be successful in the modern era.”

Obama Ad Strategy Obama 2012 Ad Strategy: Unconventional? Unwise? Ads by the Trickle: No Nationwide offensive - a nine-state buy for a 60-second overview of Obama’s first-term successesnine-state buy - a Spanish-language health-care ad in Florida - an English language ad about higher-education costs appearing in Florida and in Nevada; - a long ad about Bain Capital that reportedly cost less than $100,000 to place in markets across five states.less than $100,000 - a brief January broadcast-buy across six states focusing on energy, ethics, and the Koch brothers.broadcast-buy

Obama Ad Strategy Odd Pattern Indicative of “Experimental Revolution” Experiment-Informed Programs: EIP The Obama campaign’s “experiment-informed programs” … are designed to track the impact of campaign messages as voters process them in the real world, instead of relying solely on artificial environments like focus groups and surveys...”

Obama Ad Strategy New Method: Randomized and Micro-targeted “The method combines the two most exciting developments in electioneering practice over the last decade:” 1. The use of randomized, controlled experiments (able to isolate cause and effect in political activity) 2. Micro-targeting statistical models that can calculate the probability a voter will hold a particular view based on hundreds of variables.

Obama Ad Strategy Analyst Institute: Moving Beyond Hunches The AI was formed in 2007 and had started using a variety of experimental methods to test the effect of differing GOTV (Get Out the Vote) strategies. They wanted to measure cause and effect, which has traditionally been hard to do in a campaign setting. Experimental Research Designs: AFL-CIO and EMILY’s List “Experimenters would randomly assign voters to different get-out-the- vote treatments and measure after an election whether one group turned out at a higher rate than the other.”

Obama Ad Strategy AFL-CIO Example: Experimental Research Design: The AFL-CIO wanted to test the causal effect of three different options for a direct-mail attack on John McCain in 2008: 1. Agenda Mailer: focused on Economic-Policy 2. McBush Mailer: Linked Bush to McCain 3. Testimonial Mailer: McCain: War Hero, Yes. Voice for Workers No.

Obama Ad Strategy AFL-CIO Example: Experimental Research Design: Agenda Mailer 1. Agenda Mailer: focused on McCain’s Economic-Policy 2. McBush Mailer: Linked Bush to McCain 3. Testimonial Mailer: McCain: War Hero, Yes. Voice for Workers No. Ohio Union Members IV: (Cause): Mailer Sample: Units of Analysis (randomly assigned) Union Mailer No Mailer Support McCain (38%) Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll) Support McCain (37.6%) Compare Results Experimental Group Control Group

Obama Ad Strategy AFL-CIO Example: Experimental Research Design: McBush Mailer 1. Agenda Mailer: focused on McCain’s Economic-Policy 2. McBush Mailer: Linked Bush to McCain 3. Testimonial Mailer: McCain: War Hero, Yes. Voice for Workers No. Ohio Union Members IV: (Cause): Mailer Sample: Units of Analysis (randomly assigned) McBush Mailer No Mailer Support McCain (38%) Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll) Support McCain (37.6%) Compare Results Experimental Group Control Group

Obama Ad Strategy AFL-CIO Example: Experimental Research Design: Testimonial Mailer 1. Agenda Mailer: focused on McCain’s Economic-Policy 2. McBush Mailer: Linked Bush to McCain 3. Testimonial Mailer: McCain: War Hero, Yes. Voice for Workers, No. Ohio Union Members IV: (Cause): Mailer Sample: Units of Analysis (randomly assigned) Testimonial Mailer No Mailer Support McCain (32%) Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll) Support McCain (37.6%) Compare Results Experimental Group Control Group

Obama Ad Strategy Limits of Approach: No Micro-Targeting “But the AFL was measuring only the average impact of each message Across the entire swath that received it. What if certain types of people were more likely to respond to specific messages than others?”

Obama Ad Strategy EMILY’s List Example: Experimental Research Design: The EMILY’s List wanted to test the causal effect of two different direct-mail strategies in support of Robin Carnahan in Missouri in 2010: 1. Comparative Mailer: (Comparing Roy Blunt and Carnahan) 2. Negative Mailer: (Focusing on Roy Blunt’s vulnerabilities) Micro-Targeting: Added Dimension But, they also wanted to then study in-depth the groups of voters who were impacted by the messaging.

Obama Ad Strategy EMILY’s List Example: Experimental Research Design: Comp. Mailer 1. Comparative Mailer: (Comparing Roy Blunt and Carnahan) 2. Negative Mailer: (Focusing on Roy Blunt vulnerabilities) Rural INDY Women IV: (Cause): Mailer Sample: Units of Analysis (randomly assigned) Comparative Mailer No Mailer Support Carnahan (37.3%) Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll) Support Carnahan (35.3%) Compare Results Experimental Group Control Group

Obama Ad Strategy EMILY’s List Example: Experimental Research Design: Negative Mailer 1. Comparative Mailer: (Comparing Roy Blunt and Carnahan) 2. Negative Mailer: (Focusing on Roy Blunts vulnerabilities) Rural INDY Women IV: (Cause): Mailer Sample: Units of Analysis (randomly assigned) Negative Mailer No Mailer Support Carnahan (38.3%) Post-test: DV: (Effect): Opinion (Poll) Support Carnahan (35.3%) Compare Results Experimental Group Control Group

Obama Ad Strategy EMILY’s List Example: Micro-Targeting: Attribute-Mapping What attributes distinguished those who were more likely to support Carnahan after negative mail piece? Attributes of Impacted Women: (Census Data). - Average Annual household Income: $37,500-45,000: Support for Carnahan increased by 10 points. - Geography: those living in “Densest areas” most responsive - Family: more likely to be a single parent. Targeting Information: Such information enabled the EMILY’s List to develop a highly refined list of who to send specific types of mail.