1 Finding the Appropriate Mix: Balancing Capabilities with Priorities Major General Darren McDew, USAF Vice Director, Strategic Plans & Policy 20 January 2010

2 Strategic Environment Westphalian

3 Strategic Environment A complex, dynamic, and uncertain environment …... With a host of diverse actors... With a host of diverse actors... Many strategic challenges... Many strategic challenges... And several key meta-trends... And several key meta-trends Taliban Insurgency Flow Security Catastrophic Terrorism Cyber & Space Vulnerability Energy Security Pandemics & Natural Disaster Al Qaeda Safehaven Russian Assertiveness Iranian WMD Program North Korea Instability & WMD Proliferation Pakistan Instability Rising Chinese Influence Iraq Stability Mid-East Peace Process Climate Change Ethnic Conflict Failing States Global Financial Crisis & Economic Downturn Energy Dependence Global Commons Bolivarian Influence Transnational Terrorism Illicit- Trafficking Arctic Sovereignty

4 What Keeps Me Up at Night? Afghanistan Pakistan Iraq Counter-terror North Korea and Six Party Talks Iran and P5+1 Discussions General Non-Proliferation Middle East Peace Initiatives Possible CYBERCOM Regional Ballistic Missile Defense Cooperation with Central & South American Friends Homeland Defense Humanitarian Assistance National Security Strategy Quadrennial Defense Review Arms Control Negotiations Risk Assessment Trans-regional Flow Security... piracy Building Partnership Capacity Unified Command Plan Peacekeeping Operations Are we missing a trend? PartnerPreparePreventPreservePrevail Help eliminate terror safe havens to the U.S., to our partners, and to these nations Directly defeat terrorists Non-proliferation

5 Potential Breeding Grounds for Instability

6 Instability… Flow Security… Partnerships France Kenya Netherlands Somalia Spain US Yemen Australia Bahrain Denmark Korea Pakistan Singapore Turkey UK US Other Belgium France Germany Greece Italy Luxemburg Netherlands Norway Spain Sweden UK CTF 151 China India Iran Japan Malaysia Russia Saudi Arabia Seychelles Yemen NATO EU Prosecutions Bahrain Djibouti Kenya Seychelles Canada Greece Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain Turkey UK US Shore Support 33 Nations assisting/assisted Counter Piracy operations 2009: 193 Pirate Attacks/46 Successful

7 Inter-Agency Collaboration Defense Development Diplomacy Whole of Government NGOs Whole of Society? Whole of Government Whole of Society Building Partnership Capacity Authorities Security Force Assistance Stability Operations

8 Building Partnership Capacity (BPC) COCOMs Focused on further evolution of authorities as essential to ability to attain BPC objectives as defined in the GEF Dual-Key approach (State/DoD) Encourages better unity of effort Preserve and enhance global Train and Equip

9 Strategic Issues and Potential Solutions Taliban Insurgency Flow Security Catastrophic Terrorism Cyber & Space Vulnerability Energy Security Pandemics & Natural Disaster Al Qaeda Safehaven Russian Assertiveness Iranian WMD Program North Korea Instability & WMD Proliferation Pakistan Instability Rising Chinese Influence Iraq Stability Mid-East Peace Process Climate Change Ethnic Conflict Failing States Global Financial Crisis & Economic Downturn Energy Dependence Global Commons Illicit- Trafficking Arctic Sovereignty Africa Station Haiti Earthquake Response Global Train and Equip FMF/IMET Bolivarian Influence Transnational Terrorism Counter Piracy Build Partner Caps

10 “The belief that peace is desirable is rarely enough to achieve it. Peace requires responsibility. Peace entails Sacrifice.” -- President Obama Nobel Peace Prize speech Dec 10, 2009 “The belief that peace is desirable is rarely enough to achieve it. Peace requires responsibility. Peace entails Sacrifice.” -- President Obama Nobel Peace Prize speech Dec 10, 2009