Intro Opportunity for Higher Education in a Perfect Storm Tri-State Consortium of Opportunity Programs Newark, New Jersey April 8, 2013 Tom Mortenson Senior.

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Presentation transcript:

Intro Opportunity for Higher Education in a Perfect Storm Tri-State Consortium of Opportunity Programs Newark, New Jersey April 8, 2013 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar, The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst, Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY

The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

The Perfect Storm Realities: Stages of economic development: Primary: agriculture, natural resources Secondary: manufacturing Tertiary: human capital Dynamic demography Shrinking white/growing minority populations Growing shares of poor children in K-12 and higher education Aging population, living longer Globalization

The Perfect Storm Federal policy choices: Progressive policy era: 1862 to : Morrill Land Grant Act 1895: Second Morrill Land Grant Act 1944: Servicemen’s Readjustment Act 1957: National Defense Education Act 1965: Higher Education Act 1972: Pell Grant program 1978: Middle Income Student Assistance Act Regressive policy era: 1980 to present 1981, 1982, 1994: Pell Grant maximum award reduced 1987: Federal aid moves away from need-based grants Aging population, living longer

The Perfect Storm State policy choices: Progressive policy era: to 1980 Universal K-12 education State teachers’ colleges Junior colleges Need-based grant aid Increased funding efforts for higher education Regressive policy era: 1980 to present Cutbacks in state appropriations efforts Colleges and universities raise tuition charges to students Growth in merit based scholarship programs

The Perfect Storm Institutional policy choices: Progressive policy era: to 1980 Universal K-12 education State teachers’ colleges Junior colleges Need-based grant aid Increased funding efforts for higher education Regressive policy era: 1980 to present Enrollment management Prestige race (U.S. News) Revenue replacement: full pay versus institutional aid, non- residents versus state residents Research versus instruction in public 4-year institutions

The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

K-12 School Lunch Program

Upper Family Income Limits for 1 st, 2 nd, & 3 rd Quartiles

Low Income Student Shares of Total

The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

Distribution of Revenue Sources for Financing Higher Ed

National Avg Resident Undergrad Tuition & Fees in Public Inst

Need-Based Grant Share of State Student Financial Aid

The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

Need-Based Share of Federal Student Financial Aid

Purchasing Power of Pell Grant

The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

Core Revenue by Source for Public 4-Year

Changes in Core Revenue by Source for Public 4-Year

State/Local Appropriations Share of Core Revenue at Public 4-Year Institutions

Tuition & fee Share of Core Revenue at Public 4-Year Insts

Core Expenditure Shares by Function for Public 4-Year Insts

Changes in Core Expenditure Shares by Function for Public 4- Year Insts

Instruction Share of Core Expenditures in Public 4-Year Insts

Tuition Share of Instruction + Student Services in Public 4-Year Insts

Public 4-Year Shares of Undergrads with & without Pell Grants

The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

Pell Grants Enrolled in Public & Private in Clgs & Univ

Pell Grant Shares in 4-Year & 2- Year

High School Grad Rates by Family Income Quartiles

College continuation Rates by Income Quartiles

Change in College Continuation Rates

Bachelor’s Degree Completion by Age 24

Change in Completion Rate

Distribution of Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Age 24

Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain yr olds OECD 2003

Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain OECD 2009

Change in Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain OECD

Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree attain OECD 2020

The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Institutional Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

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