Time-invarying Covariates of Successive Births in Pakistan Ali Muhammad Ph.D. Candidate Department of Sociology University of Western Ontario London, Ontario Webpage: http//beatific.topcities.com/Muhammad/Ali.html

TFR Trends: Pakistan,

Objective of the study  To estimate the hazards of having 1 st, 2 nd, 3 rd, 4 th and 5 th births with different attributes of women.

Data  MIMAP (The Micro Impact of Macro Adjustment Policies) 2001  Sample Size: 4003 Households  Women Interviewed (15-49): 4500  Eligible Women:3349

Methodology Cox Regression Five models are estimated separately for each parity to examine the affect of different covariates.

Covariates:  Birth Cohorts (Younger; born before 1968 and older; after 68),  Age at first marriage (< 16, and 20+),  Province of Residence (Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, Baluchistan)  Type of Residence (Urban/ Rural),  Education of mother (No schooling, 8 years, 9+ years),  Employment status of mother (Working, Not working),  Sex of surviving children,  Participation in Household Decision-making,  Family Planning Discussion with Husband,  Can Go Out in Need and  Life Satisfaction.

Results: Birth cohorts *** Reference: Younger Cohort, *** Significant at <0.001

Age at first marriage All coefficients are significant at < 0.001, Reference: < 16 years

Provinces and type of residence Provinces Relative Risks of Having 1 st birth2 nd Birth3 rd Birth4 th Birth5 th Birth Punjab (Ref)1.000 Sindh***1.225***1.212*** NWFP***1.217*** Baluchistan0.955***1.627***1.498*** Type of Residence Urban1.050*0.929* Rural (Ref.)1.000 Significant at *** <0.001, ** < 0.05 and <0.10

Socio-economic variables Education Relative Risks of Having 1 st birth2 nd Birth3 rd Birth4 th Birth5 th Birth No Education ®1.000 < 9 years*** years***0.480***0.748***0.694***0.516***0.527 Work Status Working** * ***0.850 Not Working ®1.000 Significant at *** <0.001, ** < 0.05 and <0.10 level

Sex of children Sex of ChildrenSecond BirthThird BirthFourth BirthFifth Birth Sex of first Child Boy (Reference) Girl Sex of first two children Both Boys Both Girls One Boy, One Girl (Reference) Sex of First Three Children All Boys All Girls--*** Two Boys, One Girl (Reference) One Boy, Two Girls-*** Sex of First Four Children All Boys All Girls---***1.367 Two Boys, Two Girls (Reference) Three Boys, One Girl Three Girls, One Boy---**1.149 *** Significant at <0.001, ** <0.05 and *at <0.10

Survival status of previous child All coefficients are significant at <0.001

Women’s autonomy variables Decision-making Participation Relative Risks of Having 1 st birth2 nd birth3 rd birth4 th birth5 th birth Participate**0.909***0.850*** ***0.843 Do not Participate (Reference)1.000 FP Discussion with Husband Discuss***0.848***0.874***0.793***0.840**0.842 Do not Discuss (Reference)1.000 Can Go out Unaccompanied Yes **1.128 No (Reference)1.000 Overall Life Satisfaction Very much satisfied*** **0.853 Satisfied to some extent Not satisfied1.000 Significant level: *** at <0.001, ** at <0.05 and * at <0.10

Conclusion What does make difference? Higher age at first marriage, Higher level of education, Sex of children, Survival status of previous child, Participation in household decision-making and Family planning discussion with husband.

Policy Recommendations Increase in age at first marriage by Increasing the opportunities for women’s access to higher education and employment, Educating women to realize that either sex is better, Providing better health facilities to reduce the incidences of infant and child mortality, Encouraging women to participate in household decision-making as well as Making them able to discuss their FP matters with their husbands.

Thanks