1 Feeding the 10 Billion The future of Land, Yields and Inputs

2 Text How can we consume more grain than we produce in a year? Why does grain production fluctuate each year? What trends do you see? We are already using: 40% of the land 70% of the water

3 How does agriculture harm the environment? Uses and pollutes water Uses and pollutes water Destroys natural ecosystems Destroys natural ecosystems Chemical fertilizers/pesticides/herbicides Chemical fertilizers/pesticides/herbicides harm ecosystems harm ecosystems harm humans harm humans pollute water pollute water Responsible for 33% of Greenhouse Gases Responsible for 33% of Greenhouse Gases fossil fuels for production, transportation fossil fuels for production, transportation methane produced by manure methane produced by manure deforestation takes releases carbon stored in trees (12%!!) deforestation takes releases carbon stored in trees (12%!!) Soil erosion/degradation/salinization Soil erosion/degradation/salinization

4 How have we gotten where we are today? Until 1960 increase in production = expansion (more land area under cultivation) Until 1960 increase in production = expansion (more land area under cultivation) Green Revolution 1940s-70s Green Revolution 1940s-70s New varieties of high yielding crops New varieties of high yielding crops Increased irrigation Increased irrigation Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides. Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides. Since 1960 increase in production = intensification (higher yield) Since 1960 increase in production = intensification (higher yield)

5 Our future: Expansion or Intensification? Most (if not all) arable land is under cultivation. (40% of total land area!) Most (if not all) arable land is under cultivation. (40% of total land area!) Some remaining arable land is undisturbed natural ecosystems (forest, prairie, wetland) Some remaining arable land is undisturbed natural ecosystems (forest, prairie, wetland) Think about PB Conservancy Think about PB Conservancy Some is developed for urban/human use Some is developed for urban/human use Think about our football practice fields Think about our football practice fields Is increasing the number of acres we farm the answer? Probably not, or at least not much Is increasing the number of acres we farm the answer? Probably not, or at least not much

6 Hey, what about organics? Many students thought that eating organic is a way to reduce your environmental impact. Many students thought that eating organic is a way to reduce your environmental impact. Is that true? Is that true? 6

7 What is Conventional Ag? “modern” farms that you see driving around the midwest. “modern” farms that you see driving around the midwest. Usually large “mono-crop” farms. (large areas with one crop/animal) Usually large “mono-crop” farms. (large areas with one crop/animal) Use chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides as needed to improve yields Use chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides as needed to improve yields Use irrigation as needed Use irrigation as needed Very little human labor, mostly large machinery to plant and harvest. Very little human labor, mostly large machinery to plant and harvest. Often use Genetically Modified (GMO) varieties Often use Genetically Modified (GMO) varieties

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12 Why choose Conventional? High yield per acre (a lot of food produced in a small area) High yield per acre (a lot of food produced in a small area) Less expensive for the consumer Less expensive for the consumer Uses existing technologies Uses existing technologies

13 What is Organic Agriculture? Uses natural fertilizers (manure and compost) instead of chemicals Uses natural fertilizers (manure and compost) instead of chemicals Uses natural techniques to control pests instead of pesticides. Uses natural techniques to control pests instead of pesticides. beneficial insects, birds beneficial insects, birds Intercropping (planting different plants close together) Intercropping (planting different plants close together) Uses natural techniques to control weeds instead of herbicides Uses natural techniques to control weeds instead of herbicides Crop rotation Crop rotation Weeding Weeding Mulching Mulching Feed animals organic feed, no hormones or antibiotics Feed animals organic feed, no hormones or antibiotics No rules for irrigation No rules for irrigation Uses a lot of human labor Uses a lot of human labor No Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) No Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

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17 Why choose Organic? Some evidence of health benefits (increased nutrients) Some evidence of health benefits (increased nutrients) Avoids chemical pollution (pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers) Avoids chemical pollution (pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers) May provide better habitats for animals, birds and insects May provide better habitats for animals, birds and insects Often, but not always, less fossil fuel use Often, but not always, less fossil fuel use But will it provide a solution to our problem of feeding 10 billion without ruining our natural world? But will it provide a solution to our problem of feeding 10 billion without ruining our natural world?

18 Is organic the answer? Benefits of organic: Benefits of organic: Less pollution, CO2 Less pollution, CO2 Healthy soil Healthy soil Healthy people Healthy people Costs of organic: Costs of organic: Less yield per acre in some cases Less yield per acre in some cases No GMO crops allowed No GMO crops allowed Higher prices Higher prices

19 The future of yields… Using organic techniques, many calculate that we could only feed 4 billion. (currently 6.7 billion) Using organic techniques, many calculate that we could only feed 4 billion. (currently 6.7 billion) Remember, increased yield since the 1960s came about through fertilizers, irrigation, new varieties, and pest/weed control. Remember, increased yield since the 1960s came about through fertilizers, irrigation, new varieties, and pest/weed control. However, some crops (corn/soy) have the same yield using organic techniques (and better env. outcomes). However, some crops (corn/soy) have the same yield using organic techniques (and better env. outcomes). If we can’t increase global yields, we simply can’t feed everyone. If we can’t increase global yields, we simply can’t feed everyone.

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21 The future of GMOs… Currently not considered organic. Currently not considered organic. Higher Yields: more grains per plant Higher Yields: more grains per plant New varieties are disease/pest resistant. New varieties are disease/pest resistant. reduced need for chemical pesticides reduced need for chemical pesticides Withstand drought, heat, wind Withstand drought, heat, wind Shorter plants, quick to ripen, need less water. Shorter plants, quick to ripen, need less water. Environmental Benefits Environmental Benefits May reduce or eliminate the need for pesticides May reduce or eliminate the need for pesticides May reduce the need for irrigation (good for soil) May reduce the need for irrigation (good for soil) Higher yields reduce pressure to deforest land Higher yields reduce pressure to deforest land

22 How is a crop genetically modified Popular portrayal: Frankenfood! Popular portrayal: Frankenfood! insert a pig gene into a tomato. insert a pig gene into a tomato. make corn that can withstand herbicides or that emits pesticides make corn that can withstand herbicides or that emits pesticides Many people are worried about the unknown effects off these kinds of techniques Many people are worried about the unknown effects off these kinds of techniques create “super weeds” or kill butterflies create “super weeds” or kill butterflies Human health? Human health? Disturbing (disrupting natural processes) Disturbing (disrupting natural processes) Another, less “Frankenfood: technique, marker assisted breeding Another, less “Frankenfood: technique, marker assisted breeding Speeds up natural selection (similar to old school plant breeding) Speeds up natural selection (similar to old school plant breeding) Does not introduce outside genes from other species Does not introduce outside genes from other species More natural More natural

23 Towards a sustainable future… Combine Organic, conventional, and GMOs Combine Organic, conventional, and GMOs Need to find a way to incorporate beneficial organic techniques that Need to find a way to incorporate beneficial organic techniques that reduce pollution/chemicals reduce pollution/chemicals Maintain soil health Maintain soil health Have high yields Have high yields Also use new and proved technologies to close the yield gap: Also use new and proved technologies to close the yield gap: GMO crops GMO crops limited application of fertilizers limited application of fertilizers Improved efficiently Improved efficiently Local and urban production systems Local and urban production systems