PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Section 001 Guy Burgess

Conflict Minerals conflict-minerals

Common Core post.com/comme nted/ci_ ?IADID=Search- com- com#

Water Roundtables ost.com/news/ci_ /water- wars-at-colorado- legislature-bill- ignites-passions

US 36 Contract m/news/ci_ /50- year-u-s-36-management- contract-gets

Vote No, Hope Yes Caucus imes.com/2014/ 02/13/us/politics /vote-no-hope- yes-defines- dysfunction-in- congress.html?f rom=homepage

Comments on This Week’s Readings  Required Reading to be discussed NEXT WEEK (reading reflections - RR4 - on this material are due noon, Monday Feb. 10.)  Threaded Text narrative – familiarize yourself with the system [Link to be added.]  PACS2500 Review Wehr "Conflict Mapping" "Conflict Mapping"  Shmueli "Conflict Assessment" LinkConflict AssessmentLink  PACS2500 Review Lederach "Levels of Action" (Lederach's triangle)Levels of Action" (Lederach's triangle)  PACS2500 Review Ury "The Third Side" "The Third Side  Framing Questions include: What aspects of the Wehr, Shmueli, Lederach, and Ury readings seem to relate (and be useful) to your conflict (how and why)? What topics in the threaded text seem to be useful for your research -- and why? ?

Mapping: The First Intervention Step Paul Wehr Interpersonal Conflict William Wilmot, Joyce Hocker

Piecing Together the Puzzle

System Thinking Understand the Big Picture, Specialize

Mapping & Route Finding

Simple (sort of) Two Dimensional Map

Map Layers

Map Scale – Macro, Meso, Micro

Time Series

“Adopt-a-Highway” Maps

Wehr Mapping Elements  Context  Parties  Causes / Consequences  Contrasting Beliefs  Goals & Interests  Dynamics  Functions  Regulation Potential

Conflict Arenas Negotiation Legal action Political action Moral competition Economic competition Military confrontation Etc. Conflict Actors / Interveners Grassroots Citizens Third SidersProfiteers Competing Interest Groups & Leaders Altruistic & Selfish Motives Altruistic Interveners Self-Interested Interveners Competing Interest Groups & Leaders Altruistic & Selfish Motives Grassroots Citizens Mid-Level Activists 3 rd Parties 2 nd Parties 1 st Parties 4 th Parties

Third Side Roles

Lederach's Levels of Action

Dispute Chains & Chess Think as many moves ahead as possible then go for strategic position

Boulder Open Space Case Biased, personal story To illustrate power options

Power Options / Disputing Arena I Moral arguments designed to persuade people to voluntarily change their behavior Appeals to administrative discretion Efforts to influence "rulemaking" processes Legal challenges based on alleged violations of settled law Negotiation based on the fact that it is less costly than power contests and achieves the same result

Power Options / Disputing Arena II Litigation as part of an effort to set a new legal precedent Lobbying efforts designed to change the law Electoral efforts designed to change the makeup of legislative bodies Public education programs to lay the groundwork for a electoral campaign Economic power and financial resources to take action in the private sector

Power Options / Disputing Arena III Attempt to exert illegal or unethical influence on political leaders (e.g. bribes) Defy political authorities through acts of civil disobedience or covert lawbreaking Violent resistance and intimidation State-sponsored military threats and, if necessary, action

Ripeness as Time Appropriate Intervention Michael S. Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996), p

Conflicts and Disputes

The Football Analogy Disputes are the plays and conflict is the game with special rules: 1) the game never ends, and 2) the goal is to keep the ball at your end of the field.

Abortion Dispute History A partial list of major abortion-related disputes in the United States and associated shift in aggregate social policies. Pro-ChoicePro-Life Abortion prohibition laws Abortion legalization efforts (state-level) Roe v. Wade GOP decision to focus on the abortion issue Pro-Choice interest group organization Pro-Life interest organization Pro-Life Supreme Court appointments Pro-Choice Supreme Court appointments Threats abortion providers State-level abortion restriction legislation Many other disputes in various arenas

Destructive Conflict Dynamics/Traps Conflict Pathologies

Tragedy of the Commons The opposite of sustainability Resilience return to sustainability

The Egomaniac Problem The Paramedic Syndrome

“To whomsoever hath, to him shall be given” Kenneth Boulding Matthew’s Law

Marxist (Groucho) Posterity Trap “What has posterity ever done for me?” – Marx

Posterity Trap Defense Mechanisms Building codes Disaster preparedness Education Long-term investments (not short term consumptive borrowing) Pay as you go budgeting with investment Parental protection (mother grizzly bear) Dedicated taxes Carter “Greeting Cards” You “borrow the earth from your children, you don’t inherit it from your parents”

Escalation Conflict Intensification Beginnings Out-Group Identity Worst Case Bias Victim Bias Grievances Enmity Reinforcement Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Recreational Complaint Tactical Choices Invincibility Illusion Tactical Escalation / Response Coalition Building/Polarization Rachets Sacrifice Trap Shame Trap Personalization Breakover Interpersonal Attack Unthinking Anger Violence Breakover Vengeance Self-Defense Feedback Loops

De-Escalation Strategies Portray Conflict Process as the Source of Evil and All Sides as Victim (e.g. Hiroshima) “Mistakes Were Made” Amnesty (?War Criminal Problem?) Initiate Cooling-off Periods Give Losers a Future They Can Live With (World War I vs. II Settlement) Trust Earning / Confidence Building (GRIT) Recognition that Escalation Strengthens Enemies as well as Friends No Response or Minimal Response to Provocation

De-Escalation Strategies Disarming Behavior to Break Stereotypes (Sadat) Pursue Cooperative Activities between Enemies Replace Negotiators Correct Other Overlay Problems Limit Misunderstandings Clarify Facts Pursue Fair Process Create Islands of Un-escalated Discourse Accurate Cost of Conflict Accounting

Threaded Text

Threaded Text I  Introduction  Preliminary Considerations  Distinguishing Conflicts from Disputes  Scale and Complexity  Your Relationship to the Conflict / Dispute  Conflict Assessment and “Mapping”  “Traditional” Conflict Assessment  Graphical Conflict Mapping  Core Substantive Issues in Conflict  Distributional Conflict  Moral Conflict  Status Conflicts  Identity Conflicts  Conflict as the Engine of Social Learning

Threaded Text II  Destructive Conflict Dynamics – And Constructive Responses  Misunderstandings  Destructive, Partisan Framing  Spreading Disinformation  Flawed Fact-Finding, Interpretation, and Utilization  Escalation  Violence  Unrightable Wrongs  Lack of Collective Purpose  Lack of Future Vision  Destructive Competition  Over-Reliance on Coercive Power or “Power Over”  The Profiteer / Spoiler Problem  The Machiavelli Problem

Conflict Map Assigment

Map Elements  The primary conflict parties  Other important parties, if there are any (such as key allies of one side or the other)  Active and potential third parties  Primary parties' attributes (the way they self-identify, their values, positions, interests, needs, frames, grievances -- basically how they "see" or understand the conflict.  Sources of power and power strategies  Significant events (dispute episodes within the longer running conflict)  Significant conflict dyanmics such as homeostasis, positive and negative feedback loops, non-local or non- linear causation, and probabalistic effects.

Documentation  In addition to drawing the maps themselves, we want you to annotate the maps — explaining what all the shapes and elements mean, why they are included (what makes them especially important to the story you are trying to tell) and why you drew them as you did.  This can be done in an accompanying MSWord document, or it can be done by including extra "slides" with more detailed information which can be accessed with links or by "zooming- in" with prezi. If you click on a box for the Assad government, for example, in a map of the Syrian conflict, that could take you to a power point slide that talks about the nature of the Assad government and what their role is/was in driving that conflict. It's also possible for you to present your slideshow orally on a.mp4.  This documentation is also where you should put in citations to reference sources

Grading Grading will be based on the following criteria:  Inclusion of requested mapping elements,  Number of elements within each category,  Clarity and accuracy of maps,  Quality of documentation,  Integration of the various sub-maps with one another,  Writing quality,  Timeliness of both the draft and final map.

No Blueprints, Be Creative! I’m agreeable to modifications that stick within the spirit of the assignment and exhibit comparable levels of effort

Understanding Layers ACLU

Things to Know In order to use this effectively you should understand:  Slide Layouts  Slide Masters  Objects / Arranging  Hyperlinks  Images  Animations

Legend Friend Ally Adversary Enemy Neutral Other (Mark, Client?) Insert Arrows w/ Multiple Slides for Different Time Periods Exacerbating Dynamic Ameliorating Dynamic Comment Danger Point Pictures Causality Positive: an increase in A causes an increase in B Negative: an increase in A causes a decrease in B Party A Group 1 Party B Group 1 Negative feedback system (de- escalation) or Positive feedback system (escalation)

Symbols Dedicated Fighters Power Grabbers Compromisers Decision Making / Organizational Structure Culture / Value Profile Constituent Group Constituent Communication Power Profile: Legal, Political, Economic, Military, Popular Strategic / Tactical Plan: Interests, Positions, Bargaining Strategy

Drawing, Prezi, PowerPoint, Web Pan & Zoom Slideshow & Hyperlink Web Site 2D Map

Class Project Clusters Reproductive Issues – Abortion US / Thailand – 3 – FGM – 2 US Equity Conflicts – Affordable Care Act – Incarceration Rates – Chicago Gangs – Higher Education Access Health – GMO farming – US Nutrition – 2 – Maternal Mortality African Conflict – Eritrea – Congo – 2 – Congo – South Sudan Past Wrongs – Armenian Genocide – Israel

Discussion Questions  What elements would be most useful to include?  How would you arrange those elements?