1 International Demands on Crime Statistics Geneva, November 3, 2004 Wolfgang Rhomberg UNODC, Research and Analysis Section

2 Not everything that can be counted, counts. And not everything that counts can be counted.” Albert Einstein

3 ECOSOC res. 1984/48 25 May 1984 Crime related database Surveys on Crime Trends and Operations of Criminal Justice Systems Collect data on the incidence of reported crime Collect data on the operations of criminal justice systems Improve analysis and dissemination of information Informed decision making in administration, nationally and internationally

4 Systems thinking approach Conceptual models Every model needs a purpose Modelling implies –Omission –Distortion –Generalization Who are we doing it for?

5 Different conceptual models lead to different results ICVS (victims) WCTS (police) o- (media) o- (insurance companies)

6 8 th UNWCTS 4 Parts: Police, Prosecution, Courts, Prisons 19 Tables: Variables/Year: Web: Available for download in 6 UN languages

7 8 th UNWCTS Table 2 of the questionnaire (Crimes recorded in criminal (police) statistics, by type of crime including attempts to commit crimes, 2001 – 2002) lists the following 18 types of offences: 2.1 Total recorded crimes, regardless of type; Intentional homicide: 2.2 Committed; 2.3 Attempted; and 2.4 Committed with a firearm; 2.5 Non-intentional homicide; Assault: 2.6 Major assault; 2.7 Total assault; 2.8 Rape; 2.9 Robbery; Theft: 2.10 Major theft; 2.11 Total theft; 2.12 Automobile theft; 2.13 Burglary; 2.14 Fraud; 2.15 Embezzlement; 2.16 Drug-related crime; 2.17 Bribery and/or corruption; 2.18 Kidnapping

8 Policy impact Criminals  ? Cost of crime  ? Proceeds of crime  ? Attrition rates  ? CJS efficiency  ? Crime infection rates  ? Security and quality of life  ?

9 Meta statistics On reporting: Who? (and who not) What? When? (input vs. output) How? For whom? For what purpose? Feedback? On statistics, how: accurate? complete? timely? reliable? consistent? comparable?

10 Who reports? Federal – State Different Police Organizations Reporting chains, consolidation Statistical institutes - Ministries

11 Percentage of homicides reported by the World Health Organization as compared to those reported by the United Nations surveys of crime trends and operations of criminal justice systems, (United Nations surveys = 100 per cent) Source: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Published in “Forum on Crime and Society”

12 What is being reported? Example given: “significant drug seizure” What is significant? Which drug? Purity?

13 Statistic Is it relevant? Is the answer available? Is there a clear unit of measurement? Semantics? Less is more Small is beautiful Reductio ad absurdum

14 When and How Input statistics vs output statistics This years convictions vs last years arrests Media of reporting (double count)

15 Dynamic crime models Disagreement escalates to Violence Anti Corruption Initiative Defensive Minimize Likelihood of Significant Impact Offensive Eliminate the Causes decreaseincrease

16 UN Crime Trends Survey CrimesSuspectsPrisoners Counts/year Counts on given day Persons convicted

17 Delays Seemingly stabilized system becomes unstable after a long time

18 Crime Conventions United Nations Convention against Corruption United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Air and Sea Protocol against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, Their Parts and Components and Ammunition

19 Wish list Please consider: 1.Objectives, conceptual models 2.Meta statistics 3.Keep to essentials 4.Reporting chains 5.Alternative solutions 6.Individual statistics 7.Interpretation of data 8.Crime conventions

20 Thank you !

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22 AActual events AeDeviations in whether an event is considered a crime or not, e.g.: different definitions used in different jurisdictions. PPolice recorded crime PeErrors that accumulate along the police recording process e.g.: data entry errors at the source and at intermediate stages of the recording process, aggregation errors, interpretation errors, missing regions or double count, transmission errors (e.g. lost mail), etc. VVictim reported crime VeErrors that accumulate along the victim reporting process e.g.: victimless crimes, data entry at the source and at intermediate stages of the reporting process, interpretation errors, sampling errors, statistical errors, transmission errors, etc. 1Crime is recorded by the police and reported by victim 2Crime is recorded by the police but not reported by victim 3Crime is reported by victim but not recorded by the police 4A crime happens but is neither recorded by the police nor reported by the victim 5Victim reports a crime that never happened (e.g for purposes of insurance fraud) -- in reality this area is much smaller than depicted in the schematic 6Police records a crime that never happened (e.g. to attract a higher budget) - - in reality this area is much smaller than depicted in the schematic