CLIMATE CHANGE – THE FUTURE OF FARMING AND FORESTRY IN THE COTSWOLDS Richard Lloyd Board Member

THE COTSWOLDS AONB THE LARGEST AONB AT ALMOST 800 SQ MILES

LAND USE IN THE COTSWOLDS

THREE FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS by 2030 A worst case scenario A best case scenario A most likely scenario Two parameters o Climate Change o Responses to climate change

High ResponseMedium ResponseLow Response Low Climate Change Best Case Scenario Mid Range Climate Change Most Likely Scenario High Climate Change Worst Case Scenario CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

BEST CASE SCENARIO High degree of response Low degree of climate change

WORST CASE SCENARIO High degree of climate change Low degree of response

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO Mid range degree of climate change by 2030 –Summer temperatures + 1.6ºC –Summer rainfall – 7% –Winter temperatures + 1.3ºC –Winter rainfall + 7% Moderately positive degree of response

CROPS AND GRASS Increased yields, but with greater variability Little change in area of winter wheat and oil seed rape, but crop varieties and management methods likely to change More forage maize and bioenergy crops, and also novel crops Perhaps some small vineyards Little change in area of grassland, although its management may become more extensive

LIVESTOCK Continuing reduction in livestock numbers Main reductions expected in dairy cattle and pigs, with numbers of beef cattle and sheep reducing more gradually Heat stress in summer could impact on livestock fertility, lactation and growth rates New types and breeds of livestock likely to be introduced

OTHER FARMING TRENDS Greater incidence of pests and diseases Greater importance attached to soil and nutrient management, water conservation and energy efficiency More on-farm renewable energy production More mixed farming and diversified enterprises More cooperation between farms

SUMMARY OF FARMING IMPACTS (1) 2007 trend to 2030 Wheat31,421 ha  Oil seed rape12,902 ha  Spring barley8,640 ha  Maize 1,489 ha  Set-aside/bare/fallow11,509 ha  Temp. & perm. grassland 80,964 ha  Rough grazing3,726 ha  Area of biofuel/biomass crops  Area of novel crops  Area of forage crops  Crop and grass yields  Variability in yield & quality  Crop failure  Pests and diseases in crops  Types of crop rotation  Baling/sale/export of straw 

SUMMARY OF FARMING IMPACTS (2) 2007 trend to 2030 Dairy cows11,516  Beef cows10,779  Total cattle69,872  Pigs23,060  Sheep258,477  Livestock fertility  Livestock lactation  Livestock growth rates  New types and breeds of stock  Traditional and hill breeds  Pests and diseases in livestock  Retention of manure and slurry  Mixed farming  Diversified enterprises  Soil and nutrient management  Energy efficiency measures  Energy production on-farm  Water conservation measures  Long term planning  Risk management 

FORESTRY IMPACTS Increased timber and biomass yields Timber quality affected by summer droughts Oak and sweet chestnut will fare well Beech could be affected by drought More damage from fungal diseases and insect and other pests More wind damage and increased risks of fire Planting regimes made more resilient to climate change The trend towards broadleaves continues Market opportunities

SUMMARY OF FORESTRY IMPACTS 2007 trend to 2030 Broadleaved woodland13,445 ha  Coniferous woodland3,161ha  Total Woodland20,657 ha  Timber and biomass yields  Timber quality  Variability in species success  Damage from wind, pests, disease and fire  Woodland gaps and patchiness  Changes in rotation length/ thinning  Mixed species/provenance planting  Higher stocking rates  Planting to buffer/connect  Woodfuel/bio-energy sector  Diversified enterprises 

FARMING, FORESTRY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Improving carbon storage Contributing to water management Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

POLICY AND PLANNING Climate change-proof all AONB policies Develop a Climate Change Action Plan

RESEARCH AND MONITORING Develop a set farming and forestry change indicators Support appropriate research activity to inform management

LANDSCAPE Refine and adapt Environmental Stewardship and England Woodland Grant Scheme prescriptions to suit changing landscape and biodiversity needs Promote the protection, expansion and linking of key habitats Climate change-proof and refine the Board’s landscape strategy and guidelines

DIVERSIFICATION AND BUSINESS SUPPORT Project officer to promote diversification activities which contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation