Bharath Chandrashekhar Hui Li Rodrigo Serna Presented March 11, 2014
Current Holdings – Current Holdings of AL Relevant Macroeconomic Trends Industry Structure Analysis Company Overview Financial Analysis Projections/Assumptions Valuation Recommendation 2
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400 shares of AL purchased on on 3/10/14 4
+ Global Airline Market + Global GDP Growth + European & Asian Markets + Budget Airlines + Increase in % of Global Fleet Leased - Emerging Markets +/- Consolidation of Industry 5 Source: CIT Aerospace Aircraft Leasing Industry Overview (p26, p29) Caption: Percentage of Fleets Leased in Geographic Areas
Industry Landscape /Competition MEDIUM Bargaining Power of Suppliers HIGH Threat of Substitutes LOW Threat of New Entrants LOW Bargaining Power of Buyers MEDIUM 6
Air Lease Boeing Airbus Airlines Financing 7
Unsecured Debt (70% of Total Debt): Flexibility BBB- from S&P, Aug 2013 Source: AL K P45 8
Source: AL K P46 9
Source: AL K P5-6 10
StrengthsWeaknesses Management Team Low Composite Interest Rate Young Fleet Portfolio Fixed Rental Income vs. Floated Interest Payment High supplier concentration for commercial aircraft OpportunitiesThreats Economic Recovery Companies in emerging markets are in need of leased aircraft Lawsuit: The “AIG/ILFC Complaint” to Cross Complaint Emerging Markets Rising Interest Rate 11
Revenues Rental of flight equipment$57,075$332,719$645,853$836,516 Interest and other1,2914,0229,89322,159 Total revenues58,366336,741655,746858,675 Revenue Growth476.95%94.73%30.95% Expenses Interest11,06244,862130,419168,743 Amortization of discounts and deferred debt issue costs4,8839,48116,99423,627 Extinguishment of debt-3,349-- Amortization of convertible debt discounts35, Interest expense51,74357,692147,413192,370 % of Revenue90.66%17.34%22.82%23.00% Depreciation of flight equipment19,262112,307216,219280,037 Selling, general and administrative24,23244,55956,45371,212 Stock-based compensation24,04439,34231,68821,614 Total expenses119,281253,900451,773565,233 Income (loss) before taxes(60,915)82,841203,973293,442 Income tax (expense) benefit8,875(29,609)(72,054)(103,031) Net income (loss)(52,040)53,232131,919190,411 % Profit Margin-15.8%20.1%22.2% 12
Fleet Size % Growth28.3%15.4%7.6%8.5%10.1% Income Statement Revenue from rental of flight equipment$1,094,459$1,287,718$1,413,356$1,563,881$1,756,233 Revenue from interest and other31,26639,67246,95856,03464,776 Interest Expense249,221290,353315,557345,742384,460 Depreciation of flight equipment359,563415,174447,192485,602535,171 Selling, general and administrative90,058106,191116,825129,593145,681 Stock-based compensation16,88619,91121,90524,29927,315 Net Income$266,499$322,245$363,242$412,542$473,448 % Growth40.0%20.9%12.7%13.6%14.8% $ of Revenue from rental of flight equipment / Plane$4,800$4,896$4,994$5,094$5,196 % Growth2.0% $ of Revenue from interest and other / Plane % Growth10% 5% $ of Interest Expense / Plane1,0931,1041,1151,1261,137 % Growth1.0% $ Depreciation of flight equipment / Plane$1,577$1,579$1,580$1,582$1,583 % Growth0.1% $ Selling, general and administrative / Total revenue8.0% $ Stock-based compensation / Plane1.5% Balance Sheet Total shareholders' equity2,730,3562,954,2453,196,4933,458,6053,742,211 % Growth8.2% 13
GeneralReturn on InvestmentLTM Leverage Ratios ImpliedDebt / Net Debt / ROICROEROADiv. YieldTot. Cap.EBITDA CompanyTickerFYE(%) (x) Air Lease CorpALDec %7.55%2.04%1.32% 69.88%10.2x9.7x AerCap HoldingsAERDec %12.04%3.10%1.13%72.27%9.6x9.2x FLY Leasing LimitedFLYDec %8.48%1.52%3.05%79.41%11.4x10.5x Aircastle LTDAYRDec %1.81%0.48%16.24%69.43%11.5x9.5x Mean 2.21%7.44%1.70%6.81% 73.70% Median 2.02%8.48%1.52%3.05% 72.27% High 3.80%12.04%3.10%16.24% 79.41%11.5x10.5x Low 0.82%1.81%0.48%1.13% 69.43%9.6x9.2x 14
Net Income266,499322,245363,242412,542473,448 Minus Increase in Shareholders' Equity(206,422)(223,308)(241,575)(261,336)(282,714) Ending Shareholders' Equity2,729,8562,953,1633,194,7383,456,0743,738,788 Terminal Value4,649,523 Equity Cash Flow60,07798,937121,667151,2068,579,046 Present Value of Total Equity4,977,471 Shares Outstanding108,963,550 Implied Share Price45.68 Terminal Growth Rate2.5% Discount Rate12.9% Growth Rate of Shareholders' Equity8.2% Terminal Growth Rate $ %2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5% Discount Rate 10.9% % % % % Growth of Shareholders' Equity %7.2%8.2%9.2%10.2% Discount Rate 10.9% % % % %
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400 Shares HOLD 17