Theory of Change

TOC is an overarching theoretical framework on “how and why something works” A theory of change explains a process to reach a long- term goal and provides a pathway to change from starting point to final outcome TOC is a process to gain stakeholders opinion and create consensus in the development of intervention

What are the elements of the ToC ImpactThe real world change you are trying to affect. The program may contribute towards achieving this impact, and not achieve it solely on its own. Long term outcomeThe final outcome the program is able to change on its own. PreconditionsWork backwards in logical steps that need to happen if the next preconditions or outcome is to be achieved. AssumptionsThe uncertainties to be tested through formative research or implementation – often barriers. RationaleThe justification or existing evidence that suggests that one precondition will logically lead to the next IndicatorsThings you can measure and document to determine whether you are making progress towards, or have achieved, each intermediate outcome. Interventions/ key activities What needs to be done to move from one outcome to the next. The different components of the program. Ceiling of accountability Line often drawn between impact and long term outcome.

Example ToC: Fruit consumption by children Children want to eat fruit Fruit is available In households Increased fruit consumption by children under 16 in households Increased fruit consumption by children under 16 in neighbourhood Rationale: Research shows that increasing availability of fruit in households increases consumption Assumption: Fruit is available when children are hungry Indicator: Amount of fruit consumed in households /week by children under 16 Intervention: increase positive image of fruit amongst children

PCAF ToC more like this?

TOC Process Step one: Determining long-term outcome Step two: Developing pathway to change through pre-conditions Step three: Defining interventions Step four: Describing assumptions and indicators

ToC and research

ToC to be used as framework for evaluation and research