TO THE BLACK BOX AND BACK – The TRANS Model October 2008

2 The TRANS Model EXCLUSIVE REVELATIONS FROM CONCEPTORS OF TOOL THAT SEES INTO THE FUTURE ! Ottawa --

3  What does it model ?  to replicate reality The TRANS Model  ultimately: trips over the transportation networks - persons- passenger vehicles - bus- rail- auto  National Capital Region  at present and under any set of circumstances in the future

4 The TRANS Model

5  What is it all founded upon? The TRANS Model

6  What are households made of ?  Size : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6+ persons  Age groups: 6 ranges  Number of workers : 0, 1, 2, 3+  Housing type: detached house vs. apartment - # of non-workers with no worker (e.g. retirees, students) - # of non-workers with 1 worker (e.g. stay-at-home) - # of non-workers with 2+ workers (e.g. children) Household Composition The TRANS Model

7  What influences a household’s mobility ?  # of workers vs. # of cars  # of cars vs. housing type  # of non-workers vs. # of workers and # of cars  % of detached houses in neighbourhood  % of low-income households in neighbourhood  Population density in neighbourhood Car Sufficiency The TRANS Model

8  For what reasons do we make trips ?  Work : workplace, work-related  School : high school,18 or younger  University : university, college / CEGEP, other schools for 19+  Maintenance :shopping / banking, medical, pick up / drop off  Discretionary : leisure / sport, eating out, visiting relatives and friends Travel Purpose The TRANS Model

9  What makes households generate travel ?  for work : # of workers  for maintenance : # of workers, # of non-workers, car sufficiency, % of detached houses, population density  discretionary : # of workers, # of non-workers, high car sufficiency, % of detached houses, density of retail+services in the area  for university and school : # of non-workers  What makes households not travel ?  % of low-income in area, low car sufficiency The TRANS Model

10  What makes a neighbourhood a destination ?  for work : employment (# and density), population  for maintenance : retail, office, education and health employment, shopping gross leasable area, population, school enrollment  discretionary : retail and service employment, detached houses (over apartments), school enrollment  for university : enrollment, health employment  for school : enrollment, population The TRANS Model

11  3 levels of geography used, to take into account what happens in adjacent areas The TRANS Model - nearly 600 traffic zones … - … regrouped into 94 super-zones (clusters) … - … regrouped into 26 TRANS districts  What if an open field lies today where a new neighbourhood may take shape in the future? e.g. population density, employment density, retail density

12  Walk / bicycle travel is considered explicitly  for each travel purpose separately The TRANS Model  for origins and destinations separately  What drives walk / bicycle travel ?  car sufficiency (# of cars vs. # of workers in HH)  age ( than 45)  population / employment / retail density at various levels of geography  school / university enrollment  % of low income households  % of detached houses

13  The sequence of someone’s travel matters ! The TRANS Model  travel purpose  going / coming back directly vs. stopping over  purpose of stop-over  location of stop-over - geographically ( “on my way” ) - with respect to start and end of one’s itinerary (element of familiarity)

14 i j 1. Tours i j 2. Directional half-tours i j k k 3. Chained trips The TRANS Model  Breaking down someone’s travel :

15 time of day combos for tours 5 times of day for trips The TRANS Model  Breaking Down Someone’s Travel (cont’d) : Early Midday Early Late Midday Late Midday Late Midday 9:00-15:29 Late 18:29-28:00 Early 4:00-6:29 AM 6:30-8:59 AM outbound ( → ) PM 15:30-18:29  focus on 9 relevant tour times of day, to convert into 2 relevant trip times of day : AM and PM periods inbound (←)

16  Choosing to travel at a given time of day  is driven by : The TRANS Model  varies depending on : - level of car sufficiency - same variables seen earlier (population, employment, enrollment, density, etc.) - travel purpose - outbound vs. inbound direction - origin of travel - destination of travel - travel duration (number of time periods spanned) e.g. work trip from home in the AM, for the day maintenance trip from work in the PM, for a short while return home trip from maintenance in the evening

17 The TRANS Model nested level of mode choice  Choosing a mode (motorized modes) Limited substitution driver / passenger school trips only Not enough data for separate bus / rail access sub-nests Strong substitution of transit modes

18  Choosing a mode (cont’d) The TRANS Model  two sub-models : one for AM, one for PM  for each travel purpose separately  driven by : - level of car sufficiency - same variables seen earlier (population, employment, enrollment, density, etc.) - free flow auto time- auto (e.g. toll) + parking cost - transit in-vehicle time- fare + auto access cost - # of boardings - walk time + weight - wait time + weight - transfer penalty Different for different travel purposes

19  Choosing a mode (cont’d) The TRANS Model  also driven by less standard variables : - auto delay coefficient The difference in actual auto time vs. free flow time revealing the importance (statistically significant) attributed to reliability - Transitway reliability bonus The proportion of the in-vehicle distance of a transit trip travelled on the Transitway / O-Train as a strong positive factor in favour of transit Higher values for some work and discretionary trips

20  Choosing a mode (cont’d) The TRANS Model  rail path ratio coefficient  modal transfer conservatism Transit improvements would attract fewer auto users compared to transit users attracted by highway improvements Introduced to control the simulated choice of rail for very short portions of longer-distance trips

21 The TRANS Model  Trips are then assigned to the networks School bus X P+R bus Walk to bus Auto passenger Auto driver Transit networkAuto networkTrips by mode X K+R bus P+R rail Walk to rail K+R rail X X (bus leg) X (auto leg) X (rail leg)

22  What do the networks look like ? The TRANS Model  represented by 8,000 nodes and 23,000 links - freeways, highways, arterials, collectors - some local streets - ramps, interchanges - Transitway, reserved bus lanes, O-Train - Transitway stations (local, express platforms)  AM and PM

23  Which way do auto trips take ?  auto travel time as a function of The TRANS Model - traffic volume- # of lanes - posted speed limit - capacity - roadway type and level of interference location (urban, suburban, rural) access to / from adjacent lots control at intersections function (highway, arterial, collector, etc.) etc.

24  Which routes do transit passenger trips take ?  transit passenger trips subject to The TRANS Model - transit travel time As a function of auto travel time or schedule or posted speed limit (on exclusive facilities) - frequency of service fare structure (local, express, rural, including outbound and homebound rules) - stopping patterns - boarding / transferring inconvenience

25  And then what ?  time lost in traffic congestion The TRANS Model  distances travelled  overall speed  etc.  traffic volumes on individual links  transit passenger volumes on individual links, on individual routes... Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C Alternative D Alternative E Alternative F

26  Is the model finished ?  Other time periods of the day could be added … The TRANS Model  … perhaps toward full day simulations  peak spreading (time-of-day sensitivity to congestion)  transition to micro-simulation and activity-based structure