School of something FACULTY OF OTHER School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MOSES: A Synthetic Spatial Model of UK Cities and Regions Mark Birkin University of Leeds

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 OVERVIEW MoSeS Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science Project funded under the ESRC’s e-Social Science initiative One of eight major projects in the National Centre for e-Social Science (NCeSS) (£12 million programme) Others include Geographic Visualisation of Urban Environments (GeoVUE) And (arguably) a bunch of Computer Science

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 OVERVIEW e-Science Major research council initiative in the UK over the last 6/7 years Matched by the US Cyberinfrastructure programme Aims to address the Grand Challenges of scientific research Suggestion is that new solutions are brought into view through a combination of: Data availability Simulation and visualisation Virtual collaboration All supported through a new generation of computational infrastructure (Grid?)

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Powering the Virtual Universe (Edinburgh, Belfast, Cambridge, Leicester, London, Manchester, RAL) Multi-wavelength showing the jet in M87: from top to bottom – Chandra X-ray, HST optical, Gemini mid-IR, VLA radio. AstroGrid will provide advanced, Grid based, federation and data mining tools to facilitate better and faster scientific output. Picture credits: “NASA / Chandra X-ray Observatory / Herman Marshall (MIT)”, “NASA/HST/Eric Perlman (UMBC), “Gemini Observatory/OSCIR”, “VLA/NSF/Eric Perlman (UMBC)/Fang Zhou, Biretta (STScI)/F Owen (NRA)” p4 Printed: 16/10/2015

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 myGrid Project Motivation: In silico experiments necessitate the virtual organization of people, data, tools and machines. The scientific process also necessitates an awareness of the experience base, both of personal data as well as the wider context of work. The management of all these data and the co-ordination of resources to manage such virtual organizations and the data surrounding them needs significant computational infra-structure support.

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 OVERVIEW MoSeS The Modelling and Simulation of e-Social Science. MoSeS Objectives:  To develop a complete representation of the UK population at a fine spatial scale  To produce rich, detailed and robust forecasts of the future population of the UK  To investigate scenarios which relate demographics to service provision - emphasis on policy applications within the health and transport policy sectors

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 MoSeS: An Example Leeds Social Services Requirement to understand the future needs of the population (morbidity/ mortality) Allocation of resources Service delivery Statutory targets e.g. reduction of (spatial) inequalities in life expectancy Preparation of strategy demands a relatively long view: 2027?

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Population Projections Source: Office for National StatisticsSource: Moses

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Ethnic Projections Source: Moses

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Growth in Elderly Population (85+)

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Model of disability (1) of Disability (1) Disabled in LeedsDisabled in UK Source: BHPSSource: Moses Estimate of the disabled in Leeds: 51,599

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Disabled in Leeds, 2006Disabled in Leeds, 2031 Source: Moses Estimate of the disabled in Leeds 2031: 93,698 Increase of 82%!

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Model of Disability (3): Scenario 5Plus1 Disabled in Leeds, 2006 Disabled in Leeds, 2031 Source: Moses Revised estimate of the disabled in Leeds 2031: 70,359 Increase of ‘only’ 36%! BaselineScenario Assume that a 65 year old in 2031 enjoys the health of a 60 year old today

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Other Estimates of Need

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses: Methodology What are the functional components of an applied urban simulation? Recreation of a baseline population A dynamic/ forecasting capability A suite of service utilisation and activity models A container (spatial decision support system?)

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses: Methodology We create a synthetic representation of the UK population Using data from the 2001 Census Small Area Statistics and the Sample of Anonymised Records 24 million households and 60 million residents are individually represented The synthetic population looks just like the actual population but no ‘real’ citizens are included The reconstructed population includes a wide range of social and demographic attributes – age, ethnicity, housing, economic activity etc

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses: Population Reconstruction Model

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Health Status (Optimised) Actual Model

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Car ownership (Co-varying)

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses: Activity Model

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Smoking

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Carers

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Diabetes

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 MoSeS: Dynamic Model

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses Dynamic Model

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Migration Model We combine two approaches: A person-specific “general” model, using probabilities of migration derived from the BHPS applied to “cloned” individuals in households derived from the 2001 Census SAR Location specific information about migration intensities in small areas (2001 Census SMS), which are used to modify the results of the person-specific model The model has a two stage procedure: Migrant generation protocol Migrant distribution protocol

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Migrant generation protocol Assess migration probabilities from an analysis of BHPS data, for a) households b) groups c) individuals Major drivers of migration identified using a stepwise chi-squared estimation procedure Households: age of head, household size, housing type Individuals: age, household size, marital status Groups: merged with individuals (small numbers) National rates are locally adjusted by age using the Census Migration Statistics (SMS)

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Migrant generation: households

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Migrant generation: individuals

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Migrant distribution protocol The problem can be described as follows: Estimate migration rates by location, age, household size and housing type: this process creates a stock of vacant housing For each migrant, by location and household type (age, size) find a destination location by location and house type Calibrate this process using data on known moves (by distance – from the census SMS) and known assignments of household type to house type (BHPS)

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Simulation Database Aggregate To Migrant Population Aggregate To Vacant Dwellings Migrant generation model Spatial Interaction Model Compute dwelling preference for each migrant Update Location and Dwelling Characteristics Migration distribution protocol ( See Birkin and Clarke 1987; Nakaya et al. 2006)

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Migrant distribution model distribution model Lambda Calibration

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Model Results: Aireborough Observed Predicted

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Model Results: Seacroft Observed Predicted

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Model Results: Headingley Observed Predicted

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Agent-based simulation of student migrants We recognise the following groups: First year undergraduates Other undergraduates Master students Doctoral students We apply the following rules: Each group is allowed set years to stay in an area Students stay close to their university of study They don’t “do” marriage and fertility

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses Methodology: Architecture

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses Selection Portlet

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses Architecture

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses Mapping Portlet 1: Google Maps

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses Mapping Portlet 2: SeeGeo

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses: Discussion 1.Moses is not the only work in this area in either an academic or a policy environment But has some interesting and unique features!

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses: Discussion 2.This work has both an intellectual and a practical value Even though it is not ‘critical’ Sometimes it is necessary to be ‘constructive’ as well

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses: Discussion 3.This work is hard Maybe too hard? Scale back ambition? Extend capability/ resourcing?

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT MoSeS: November 2007 Moses: Conclusions and Next Steps There is still much work to be done to establish a convincing set of demonstrator applications for urban simulation Enhanced visual representation of simulation outputs is one key ingredient Collaboration with GeoVUE has important strategic value Embedding this research more clearly within a paradigm of (generative) social simulation is a potential means to re-enter the mainstream Genesis project?