I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Air Force Weather Agency AFWA Data Assimilation Efforts related to JCSDA Maj Lee Byerle HQ AFWA/A8T 2 May 07

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 2 Overview Background Motivation Current Data Assimilation Approach Recent Collaboration AFWA DA Priorities Follow-on Actions

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 3 Background To address COPC AI , “AFWA will assess the direction of data assimilation (DA) development at NCAR as it relates to development at JCSDA and take steps to converge the efforts.” To advocate community partnerships that leverage the entire R&D community for tech transition to operations Vision: Foster a community DA approach

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 4 Motivation Establish data assimilation (DA) program which: Delivers optimum required capability to the warfighter addressing specific deficiencies Land/Sfc Interactions Clouds Dust Transport Promotes national unity of effort between operational modeling centers

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 5 AFWA DA Course of Action Continue community DA approach through AFWA investment in NCAR Maximize leverage through increased NCAR and JCSDA collaboration and integration work Enables AFWA to: Execute 5-year DA plan: NPOESS prep, next-gen DA Work closely with NCEP/JCSDA to add radiance data sets to existing systems Work with NASA to add ESMF-compliant land-surface model

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 6 NCAR and JCSDA scientists collaborated on WRFVAR (Dec 06); incorporated JCSDA-derived: Community Radiative Transfer Model AMSU-A/B bias-correction algorithms Radiance data thinning algorithms NCAR connecting DTC with JCSDA efforts Evaluating hybrid DA techniques (Dr. Barker) Collaborating with NCEP & NASA on land surface modeling (LSM) DA issues Plan to merge radiance assimilation into LSM for WRF Recent Collaboration

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 7 Radiance Data Assimilation in WRFVAR to improve characterization for Warfighters Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) (FY07) NCAR leverage JCSDA Improved characterization—100x increase in vertical resolution Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) (FY07/08) NCAR leverage JCSDA Fills voids, characterizes ocean surfaces better Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) (FY08) NCAR leverage JCSDA Improved vertical moisture/temperature characterization—over land, through clouds AFWA DA Priorities

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 8 European Space Agency’s MetOp (FY08/09) NCAR Improved vertical moisture/temperature characterization—over land, through clouds Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) (FY09/10) NCAR collaborate with JCSDA Characterization of cloud optical properties to improve cloud model forecasts Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) (FY10/11) NCAR collaborate with JCSDA Characterization of cloud optical properties to improve cloud model forecasts Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) (FY11/12) NCAR collaborate with JCSDA Characterization of cloud optical properties to improve cloud model forecasts AFWA DA Priorities

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 9 Hybrid Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter/ 3-D Variational (EtKF/3DVar) DA Technique Improved initial conditions Cheaper (fewer CPUs) than 4D-VAR Investigate cloudy radiance assimilation w/NPOESS data Improved CFLOS/representation of clouds in models AFWA DA Priorities

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 10 AFWA Statements of Work will require NCAR to exploit/reuse JCSDA research/completed DA techniques when possible Improve two-way communication between JCSDA and AFWA Codify AFW representation at JCSDA Request JCSDA increase scope to COAMPS and WRF modeling systems Follow-on Actions

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 11 Questions?