EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 0 Pre-industrial economies in transition Topics: Advanced Organic Economies –A characterisation of pre-industrial economies Demographic forces and economic development –Causes and effects of population change in pre-industrial economies –The Demographic Revolution and the onset of industrialisation Agriculture –Agricultural change and population growth: causes and effects –Improvements in productivity: an Agricultural Revolution? The Industrious Revolution –Expansion of market activity: a source of demand to stimulate industrialisation?

Advanced Organic Economy AO economy: `vegetable’ products for energy and raw materials Plant sources of energy and raw materials are `fungible’ and `areal’ – Wrigley’s terminology Availability of land imposes an upper-limit on output Economic growth can occur but is restrained Mineral based economies break the land constraint EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 1

Demographic background (1) Persistent, very slow, long-term growth in population, interrupted by abrupt falls, sometimes lasting centuries Technological advances allow higher population densities Demographic Revolution from 1750s: –Mortality: volatile, slow trend decline –Fertility: less volatile and increasing –Migration mainly from rural to urban areas EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 2

EC120 week 02, topic 1, slide 3 Demographic background (2) Comparing Europe with Asia − rough generalisations: Fertility was below its biological maximum: Asia higher than Europe Asia: more vulnerable to mortality shocks Europe: higher per capita income lower population density European pop’n fluctuated less dramatically than in Asia Don’t forget diversity (inequality) within regions

Agriculture: England’s experience Expanding population -> an increasing demand for food Hence, upward pressure on grain prices, unless productivity improvements increase supply Evidence for productivity change from wages & prices: –Labour productivity: varied across time to late 18C –Land productivity (output per acre): trend increase Long term migration from rural to urban areas EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 4

EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 5 Sources of Productivity Advance Output/Labour = (output per unit of improved_area) times (improved_area per unit of total_area) times (total_area per unit of labour) Output per unit improved area: increased after c1500 Improved area per unit total area: increased after c1500 Total area per unit labour: subject to offsetting forces

EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 6 English agricultural before c1800 (1) Modest but cumulative impact of many small improvements Market oriented agriculture stimulated improvements Large estates -> economies of scale and mixed-farming Arable agriculture: –Corn output grew: increased acreage & higher yields –Crop rotations raised output –Seed selection and land drainage

EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 7 English agricultural before c1800 (2) Livestock agriculture –Selective breeding for systematic improvement –Better/more fodder and improved pasturage What role for `Enclosure’? –Enclosure -> individual ownership & decision-making –Long trend from communal control to enclosed land –Enclosure -> landed estates, more commercial But more productive?

The Industrious Revolution “The Industrious Revolution”: a term coined by Jan de Vries 17C/18C: trend expansion in range of market activity Specialisation within/between households -> maintained labour productivity Greater opportunity to sell labour for cash -> higher income -> buy goods for cash Contrast with Asia: productivity maintained by increased work intensity with more limited market contact EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 8

Expansion of Market Activity De Vries’s four routes to increased market activity: 1.`agricultural specialization’ – production for the market 2.`proto-industrial production’ (e.g. textiles) 3.`wage labour’ 4.`commercial service’ ( mostly domestic service) EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 9

EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 10 Rural non-agricultural employment Rural, cottage industries had existed for centuries Proto-industrialisation: commercial household production via the `putting out’ system Hypothesis: proto-industry determined the pattern of modern industry But some proto-industrial areas adopted modern industry while others reverted to agriculture

Summing up Pre-industrial economies are `advanced organic’ societies Agriculture: central in the transition to modern industry Industrious Revolution: commercialisation of everyday life Urbanisation: part of the process of specialisation EC120 week 07, topic 6, slide 11