1 Status on NOAA’s Plan to Strengthen the Tsunami Warning Program A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services Dr. Eddie Bernard, Director, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory August 8, 2005

2 Outline Purpose Issues Presentation of Briefing

3 Purpose Present a status report on NOAA’s plan to strengthen the U.S. Tsunami Warning Program, discuss research within NOAA, and receive SAB feedback

4 Issues Legislation Maintain NOAA’s leadership role in tsunami research –Tsunami science –Technology development –Modeling Field improved tsunami warning system –International and regional networks GEOSS system of systems

5 NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update 1.Upgrade and expand DART network 39 DART II stations –32 new Pacific stations (6 DART stations to be upgraded) –7 new Atlantic stations NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved!

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7 NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update 2.Expand and upgrade Water Level Monitoring Network Real time sensing Broaden coverage –Upgrade 33 existing in Pacific –10 new Pacific stations –6 new Caribbean stations Strengthen NWLON (National Water Level Observing Network) contribution to Integrated Ocean Observing System NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved!

Sitka, AK Yakutat, AK Seward, AK Cordova, AK Kodiak, AK Sand Point, AK Unalaska, AK Adak, AK ALASKA Hilo, HI Kawaihae, HI Kahului, HI Honolulu, HI Mokuoloe, HI Nawiliwili, HI Midway Kwajalein Pago Guam Wake Island HAWAII PACIFIC ISLANDS Neah Bay, WA Toke Point, WA South Beach, OR Port Orford, OR Charleston, OR Los Angeles, CA La Jolla, CA Arena Cove, CA Santa Monica, CA Port San Luis, CA Monterey, CA Point Reyes,CA North Spit,CA Crescent City,CA WEST COAST PUERTO RICO & VIRGIN ISLANDS NOAA’s 49 National Water Level Observation Network Tsunami Tide Stations Planned New Stations with Tsunami capability (14) Existing Stations with Tsunami capability (25) Atka, AK Nikolski, AK King Cove, AK Elfin Cove, AK Port Alexander, AK Akhiok, AK (or Old Harbor, AK) Santa Barbara, CA Westport, WA La Push, WA Garibaldi, OR Mona Island Aguadilla Pier Culebra Vieques, Esperanza St. John St.Croix Installed New Stations with Tsunami capability (2) Upgraded Stations with Tsunami capability (8) June 2005

9 3.Expand and upgrade seismic network Broadband sensors Strong motion sensors NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved! NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update

10 NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update 4.Inundation modeling, mapping, and forecasting Develop 74 inundation forecast models by end of 2009)

11 5.Tsunami Warning Center Operations—PTWC and WC/ATWC Expand operations to 24x7 6.Facilities Expand facilities at PTWC and National Data Buoy Center NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved! NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update

12 7.TsunamiReady Incentivize communities at risk to participate in the TsunamiReady program (tsunami resilient) Identify and assist at-risk coastal communities 8.Tsunami Data Long Term Archive Design, create, populate, and maintain DART and Tide Gauge Long Term Archive NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved! NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update

13 Research Update Dr. Eddie Bernard, Director, NOAA PMEL “Developing Tsunami-Resilient Communities” published DART network siting workshop held Progress on transferring forecast models and DART II to operations Future Research (Tour of PMEL) Tsunami Research Review

14 DART Siting Workshop Main concern: early detection Adjustments to far field sites ( Southern Ocean) and near field sites (US west coast) Identified a process for siting in the Caribbean Identified sites for September deployment in Alaska

15 Transfer Research to Operations DART II transfer begins in September Web version of tsunami forecast model successfully used for June 14, 2005, warning at Crescent City, California Installation of hardware and training for warning personnel will begin in February, 2006

16 Future Research to Operations Easy to deploy DART II Tsunami Forecast Modeling 1. Real-time forecasts 2. Inundation Scenario Studies 3. Assimilate with other NOAA ocean modeling activities Further discussions at PMEL on Wednesday

17 Tsunami Research Review Called for in National Science and Technology Council’s joint report of the Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction and the US group on Earth Observations “ Tsunami Risk Reduction ” Identified in House and Senate versions of the Tsunami Preparedness Act to be conducted by NAS

18 NSF/NOAA Tsunami Research Review 1980

Research Priorities

20 NOAA Coordination & Views Coordination with –NOAA Leadership, AAs, NEC What has NOAA done to address this issue? –Established NOAA-wide Tsunami program with five key capabilities: Assessment Warning system Mitigation Research International coordination What are NOAA’s views on the subject? –Strong coordination necessary for success. –Requires multiple line office and multiple agency execution through an end-to-end process.

21 Desired Outcomes Be informed of: –NOAA’s leadership role in tsunami research –Requirements of fielding improved tsunami warning system SAB ideas on tsunami research review

22 Backup Slides

23 DataCommunicationForecast Decision Support Notification Public Understanding Public and Community Action Collect Data Process and Analyze Data Outlook / Forecast: Tsunamis, Typhoons, Floods, Droughts, Public Health, Temperature Extreme, Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Space Weather, Fire Weather, Rip Currents, Climate Prediction, Soil Moisture Advisory, Watch, Warning, Bulletins, Emergency Manager Training, Media Training Multiple Redundant, Reliable, Comms. Community Education, Risk Assessment, Community Action Plans, Personal Action Plans Evacuation, Shelter, Supplies, Review Plans Regional and National Centers End-To-End All Hazards Forecast and Warning Integrated All-Hazard Forecasting, Warning and Response With Tsunami Warning System

24 FY05 and FY06 Funding ElementFY05 ($ millions)FY06 President’s Budget Request ($ millions) Program Management DART Stations and Ship Allocation/Deployment NWLON Seismic Network Inundation Mapping/Modeling TWC Extended Operations Facilities Tsunami Ready1.25 Long-Term Archive Total Program Costs

25 NOAA Seismic Network

26 Tsunami Program Matrix NWSOARNOSNMAO Line Office Execution Weather & Water Goal Tsunami Warning Center Operation: PTWC, WC/ATWC Vulnerability Assessment, Inundation Forecast Modeling & Mapping Applications, Risk Assessment and Planning TsunamiReady Hazard Assessment Warning Guidance DART System O&M, and Transition from Research to Applications NWLON O&MFleet Services Mitigation Research International Coordination Tsunami Science, Inundation Modeling & Mapping, Sensor Development Regional and Global Warning System Development and Capacity Building Intergovernmental and Global Framework: IOC, WMO, ISDR, GEO Post-tsunami assessments; technology development and data/information exchange Interagency Partnerships: USAID, USGS, USTDA, USF, FEMA Seismic Network O&M National Hazard Mitigation Program NOAA/State Partnerships Data Archiving: NGDC NESDIS

27 Operating Capability Overview Initial Operating Capability (IOC) –The WC/ATWC and PTWC staffed 24x7. –100% of Tsunami threatened communities identified and contacted. –Forecast models and mapping completed for 6 high risk areas with 6 additional areas underway. –6 additional DART II stations (supplementing the original 6 DART I stations) deployed in the Pacific & 4 DART stations installed in the Atlantic/Caribbean. Full Operating Capability (FOC) –Tsunami Ready awareness continuing, 21 communities recognized. –Forecast models and mapping ongoing with 15 areas completed. –Local seismic network expansion and upgrade completed. –All DART II stations deployed and full logistics support established. –All sea-level stations installed.